Flopped bottom set vs. a scary board, or ...

[SoCalPat]

... do I have the pot odds to call the turn and see the river?

.5/1 at Paradise. I'm UTG with 99 and limp in. We're eight-handed, and only one folds. Seven to the flop.

FLOP: 10 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

Talk about your good news-bad news scenarios. It's checked to me, and I figure if someone flopped a straight, I'll hear about it. I also want to make draws pay, of which I'm dead balls-on certain are out there.

I bet, and get four callers (SB folds). Five to the turn.

TURN: J /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

Ahhhhh crap. I have no doubt I'm behind. BB bets, and I have a decision to make. I'm certain a raise is coming, and maybe two. Currently, there's $7 in the pot, a number that's certain to rise. I'm 4.6-1 to improve to a boat or quads on the river. I'm still trying to get this pot odds thing down, but I call here, don't I? Is it a no-brainer or a think-about-it decision?

I call, it's raised by a player in MP, and called by three others, including myself. There's $14 in the pot. Smart play?

Results to follow.

[SoCalPat]

RIVER: Q /forums/images/icons/club.gif

Hell yes! BB checks, I check and EP checks. Turn raiser in MP bets, BB bets, I raise and MP and BB call. My 9s full takes it down.

[Louie Landale]

Your "chances" may be 10 in 46 unseen cards, but your "odds" are 36 bad card to 10 good cards or 3.6:1. Lets say you KNOW its going to get raised on the turn and 3 of you will take the river. I count 6bb in the pot, 2 others will put in 2 more so you can win 10bb. It costs 2. Your "pot odds" are 10bb:2bb or 5:1 which compares favorably to the 3.6:1 odds against you making it. Looks like an easy call.

But WAIT!!! Lets not confuse your chances of filling up with your chances of winning. If someone has QQ, JJ, or TT you have only one out. Of someone has QJ, QT, or JT you have only 4 outs. If someone has Q9, J9, or T9 you have only 8 outs. Of one player has KQ, another KJ, and the third AT then you have only 7 outs (this is a very realistic scenario for this situation). All-in-all I'd guestimate you have the eqivalent of about 8 outs, or 38:8 or 4.7:1, just barely enough to call.

But WAIT!! Surely you will win another 2bb when you make it (a low estimate of your "implied odds" so really the "pot" has 7bb in it; and we are back to an easy call.

When you are drawing to the nuts and there is no future betting, pot-odds calculations can get exact. Otherwise, you MUST guestimate your various chances. Guess down when you are drawing to a hand that may get beat. Guess up when drawing to the nuts and will surely make money if you make it.

- Louie