Whatcha think of this?

[adamstewart]

Button is 42/14/1.18


Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP folds, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (3 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (5 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, ....

[baronzeus]

i like it

[scotty34]

This would depend on how I've noticed Button actually playing as opposed to his stat numbers. If he has aggressive tendencies, I'm sure he would have popped you on the turn with a T, and probably a K as well. Against a more passive player, I won't make this bet on the river.

[mute]

Once you bet the flop, I don't see how else you can play it. Semibluff on the turn HU is a must, and I think you fold a draw often enough to make the river bluff profitable.

Only other way to play it is c/c flop and turn and c/f river UI, but I think, I like your line better on this board.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
Once you bet the flop, I don't see how else you can play it. Semibluff on the turn HU is a must, and I think you fold a draw often enough to make the river bluff profitable.

Only other way to play it is c/c flop and turn and c/f river UI, but I think, I like your line better on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draw? A 42/14 player will probably raise Axs on the Button preflop, which is the only heart draw beating us (chances are he is going to check behind with a busted flush draw). Unless it is specifically Q9 (or doubtfully Axs), there aren't draws beating us.

[billyjex]

I think QJ is pretty likely. I'm not sure if a 14% raiser would raise that after limpers.

This play looks ok. It's pretty close and the only way you'll win the pot. Also hands like J9 might be around.

[adamstewart]

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Once you bet the flop, I don't see how else you can play it. Semibluff on the turn HU is a must, and I think you fold a draw often enough to make the river bluff profitable.

Only other way to play it is c/c flop and turn and c/f river UI, but I think, I like your line better on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draw? A 42/14 player will probably raise Axs on the Button preflop, which is the only heart draw beating us (chances are he is going to check behind with a busted flush draw). Unless it is specifically Q9 (or doubtfully Axs), there aren't draws beating us.

[/ QUOTE ]


You forget, that if I don't bluff at this pot .... he may bluff with a lower flush draw and I'd be unable to call.


What could villain have then? Any two hearts, QJ, Ax, Qx, Jx, maybe he'll even fold a X,5 ...

Point is: there's no way I'm winning this pot without betting at it. And given the board, and the way this hand played out, I feel a river bet is profitable.



FWIW, I feel I played this hand perfectly. /images/graemlins/cool.gif
/images/graemlins/wink.gif


Adam

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
It's pretty close and the only way you'll win the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because this is true doesn't mean he should bet.

The river is a good bet.

Krishan

[Jeff W]

Most won't like this, but I'd check-call on the flop. I think this nets you some free cards on the turn sometimes and sometimes it yields a profitable bluffing opportunity on the river when the flop bettor checks behind on the turn.

Two more things: You don't take this pot down very often on this flop and you often get isolated by a pair of kings when a more favorable outcome would be check, pair of kings bets and then a hand like Q9 or J9 calls when it would have folded for two cold.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
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Once you bet the flop, I don't see how else you can play it. Semibluff on the turn HU is a must, and I think you fold a draw often enough to make the river bluff profitable.

Only other way to play it is c/c flop and turn and c/f river UI, but I think, I like your line better on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draw? A 42/14 player will probably raise Axs on the Button preflop, which is the only heart draw beating us (chances are he is going to check behind with a busted flush draw). Unless it is specifically Q9 (or doubtfully Axs), there aren't draws beating us.

[/ QUOTE ]


You forget, that if I don't bluff at this pot .... he may bluff with a lower flush draw and I'd be unable to call.


What could villain have then? Any two hearts, QJ, Ax, Qx, Jx, maybe he'll even fold a X,5 ...

Point is: there's no way I'm winning this pot without betting at it. And given the board, and the way this hand played out, I feel a river bet is profitable.



FWIW, I feel I played this hand perfectly. /images/graemlins/cool.gif
/images/graemlins/wink.gif


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have two conflicting statements there. You say he "may" bluff with a lower flush draw, and he may not, depends on the type of player he is. You also say you can't win this pot without betting. Something doesn't add up there.

I suppose the EV of this play depends on his bluffing tendencies.

How often will he bluff a busted draw?
How often will he fold a better draw (of which very few exist)? - probably fairly often
How often will he call a worse hand? - never
How often will he fold a K/T? - pretty close to never

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
How often will he fold a better draw (of which very few exist)?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is about as draw heavy a board as you can get.

Krishan

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
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How often will he fold a better draw (of which very few exist)?

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This is about as draw heavy a board as you can get.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but given what we know about the Button, how many of those do you think are reasonable holdings, and of those reasonable holdings, how many beat us?

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have two conflicting statements there. You say he "may" bluff with a lower flush draw, and he may not, depends on the type of player he is. You also say you can't win this pot without betting. Something doesn't add up there.

[/ QUOTE ]


I know what I said, and I meant what I said.



Adam

[krishanleong]

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How often will he fold a better draw (of which very few exist)?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is about as draw heavy a board as you can get.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but given what we know about the Button, how many of those do you think are reasonable holdings, and of those reasonable holdings, how many beat us?

[/ QUOTE ]

A ton and A ton.

Any A/Q high flush draw, QJ,J9,Q9.

Krishan

[adamstewart]

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How often will he fold a better draw (of which very few exist)?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is about as draw heavy a board as you can get.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but given what we know about the Button, how many of those do you think are reasonable holdings, and of those reasonable holdings, how many beat us?

[/ QUOTE ]


Point is: a river bet takes this pot down more than 1 in 5.



Adam

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
a river bet takes this pot down more than 1 in 5.


[/ QUOTE ]

[Derek in NYC]

I think it is better to check-call the flop, and checkraise the turn. Betting out just gets you raised.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
Point is: a river bet takes this pot down more than 1 in 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm... well that is a much simpler way to look at it. Thinking about it that way now, I will have to agree. I think I was just trying to read far too into it.

Here is a question, do you still make that bet if you have position?

[krishanleong]

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I think it is better to check-call the flop, and checkraise the turn. Betting out just gets you raised.

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This flop didn't hit many hands. Not taking the initiative here is a mistake.

Krishan

[Derek in NYC]

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I think it is better to check-call the flop, and checkraise the turn. Betting out just gets you raised.

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This flop didn't hit many hands. Not taking the initiative here is a mistake.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats precisely my point. The pot missed most hands, so by c-c the flop and c-r the turn, you get the best of both worlds. If a late position villain is aggro and is going to bet it despite having totally missed, your c-r on the turn may win you with pot. If he wants to be passive, that's fine also, since you'll happily take the freecard. On the other hand, if you bet out, and he raises (which many villains will, including raising on draws), your only choice is to three-bet and lead the turn and possibly a blank river (expensive and LAGish), or to check call the turn, and check fold the river UI. Betting this flop won't win it very often. As you yourself indicated in an earlier post, this is a draw heavy board, so part of the way to win it is to show aggression on 4th street, and bet the river no matter what (assuming you're HU).

[krishanleong]

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I think it is better to check-call the flop, and checkraise the turn. Betting out just gets you raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

This flop didn't hit many hands. Not taking the initiative here is a mistake.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats precisely my point. The pot missed most hands, so by c-c the flop and c-r the turn, you get the best of both worlds. If a late position villain is aggro and is going to bet it despite having totally missed, your c-r on the turn may win you with pot. If he wants to be passive, that's fine also, since you'll happily take the freecard. On the other hand, if you bet out, and he raises (which many villains will, including raising on draws), your only choice is to three-bet and lead the turn and possibly a blank river (expensive and LAGish), or to check call the turn, and check fold the river UI. Betting this flop won't win it very often. As you yourself indicated in an earlier post, this is a draw heavy board, so part of the way to win it is to show aggression on 4th street, and bet the river no matter what (assuming you're HU).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd agree if there was a preflop raiser. But there wasn't. Getting 3 folds here isn't that uncommon.

Krishan - 70

[Derek in NYC]

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Getting 3 folds here isn't that uncommon.

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This is about as draw heavy a board as you can get.

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These posts, both by you, are totally inconsistent with each other.

Look at it this way, if any villain has a T or K, the only way to win is for you to spike your draw. Betting out, however, will get you raised, so you're drawing in the most expensive way possible, with no semibluff opportunitites. Worse yet, you yourself can get semibluffed, potentially by worse draws.

Now if no villain has a T or K (and I include here the possibility that all villains are drawing), you can win in two ways if you take my line. Either you can spike your draw, or you can show aggression on the turn and fold out the complete bluffers, or you can continuation bet the river and beat out the other busted draws (both busted draws that beat you, or busted draws that will bet the river if checked to).

Later street agression here smells like a legitimate T, particularly when followed up with a river autobet HU.

[krishanleong]

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These posts, both by you, are totally inconsistent with each other.

[/ QUOTE ]

Naw, it just looks that way on the surface. What I mean is if noone has one of the 5 cards that match the board (quite common) and noone has a good draw, you will be able to pick up the pot on the flop. Sometimes you'll pick up the pot on the turn when a gutshot calls on the flop. The fold equity in these two situations in combination with your equity from the flush draw makes leading the flop the best way to play it.

Krishan - 71

[krishanleong]

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The pot missed most hands, so by c-c the flop and c-r the turn, you get the best of both worlds.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you think the flop will get bet? And what makes you think a draw will bet again on the turn after getting called on a paired board on the flop? If he does bet, I imagine it's more likely that he has a piece rather than a draw.

Krishan - 72