weak KK play?

[sl4v3]

SB is unknown, MP is loose passive.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, SB calls, Hero folds.

I'm guessing I should have called one more bet and check/folded on the turn unimproved, right? But, I figured on this rainbow board, I'm almost always behind to bettor and a raiser and if I do spike a K on the turn, I lose to an unlikely QT straight draw. I've been on a terrible run lately, and my mind is oatmeal, so please straighten me out.

As I write this, I am realizing my hand only has to be currently best 1 out of 18 times to make a call correct, which perhaps it is. No?

[baronzeus]

anyone fold this the first time around?

[brazilio]

Nothing really suggests that we're going to get raised on the flop, we've got a runner runner worth .5, and 2 more. Call might be loose, but I think at 14:1 we're probably ok.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing really suggests that we're going to get raised on the flop, we've got a runner runner worth .5, and 2 more. Call might be loose, but I think at 14:1 we're probably ok.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not that i think we're gonna get raised
it's that we're behind here 95% of the time IMO and even if it's called and we hit a gutshot on the turn we don't have good odds to draw to it

right? i get weak sometimes. i think i fold this sometimes tho

[Subby]

Other may disagree, but I don't think it is a bad fold. On the flop you get bet into by the SB *after* you had capped preflop. Then you and SB get raised by loose-passive MP guy who called 2 cold twice pf.

I'll be interested to see other answers.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
As I write this, I am realizing my hand only has to be currently best 1 out of 18 times to make a call correct, which perhaps it is. No?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, this thinking is incorrect. Yes you are getting 18:1 on the flop here. But you are not going to see a Showdown for 1 small bet. You have to pay a bet on the turn and river.

So best case scenario: MP keeps betting and you both keep calling. That means you have to pay 2.5 more BBs to win a total of 15BB pot on the end. So your real odds in the best case scenario are 15:2.5 or 6:1. Are you good there 6:1? I don't think so. And that is best case scenario.

You only need 22:1 on the flop to call and hit your set. You're not quite there. The implied odds of getting paid off when you do hit almost make it up but SB could have AA losing you a lot of bets.

I fold there without losing too much sleep.

[mute]

[ QUOTE ]

As I write this, I am realizing my hand only has to be currently best 1 out of 18 times to make a call correct, which perhaps it is. No?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Since you will be paying all the way to the river to see if your hand is good your effective odds are much worse.

That said, there is still some chance that you are ahead of QQ, TT or some overplayed hand and the pot is pretty big, so I would go ahead and raise the flop, and see what happens. I don't much like calling here, since it leaves you pretty much in the dark for the rest of the hand. I do think it is close between raising and folding, though.

After both players have shown aggression on the flop, it is time to get out.