Fold the river?

[MRBAA]

It's been awhile since I've had an opportunity to play stud, but I sat in a very interesting 10-20 game last night, 1 ante, 3 bring in. I've got a few hands to post, starting with this one:

I'm dealt split aces, ace of clubs up, and reraise a showing jack on third. Weak player in between us calls the first raise and then reluctantly calls my reraise, both aces and jacks are live.

Jack gets an offsuit Queen on fourth, I get a baby club. I bet, j-q calls, weak player folds.

J-Q gets an offsuit Ace on fifth, I get another little club. I now have A-x-x clubs on board. He is high and checks. I bet, he calls.

J-Q-A adds a K on sixth. I get the 8 of clubs. I now have an ace high four flush up, but my pocket card (other than the ace) is not a fifth club. Six other clubs are dead, so I don't like my chances of hitting the flush.

My opponent is a rather loose and aggressive type but a reasonably alert player and something about his demeanor as he checks suggests that he has a hand -- either kings up or a straight. I've been putting him on jacks with a possible straight draw. I sense he wants to check raise and
check my dry aces here.

River, he makes a small show of hesitating (I've seen him do this before when he wants to seem weak but actually has a hand) then bets. I hesitate a bit and he says quietly "Your aces aren't good -- save some money". It's the kind of table where people have said this kind of thing truthfully on the river several times. On the other hand, I believe several others at the table think I'm a bit of a fish (they are excessively friendly and I've never played in this game before), so he might be trying to bluff me out with dry jacks.

I go with my gut and fold and he doesn't show his hand. Pot size was roughly $150, so I was getting about 7.5-1 on a call. In retrospect, I think I should probably have called. You would think that if he had made a straight, he'd have been more likely to check and call in case I hit my flush.

I also think I should probably have bet sixth, despite my feeling that the king made his hand. Normally I would have done so, but the fact that my club draw was dead influenced me not to.

[patrick dicaprio]

if it were not for "something about his demeanor" how would you have played the hand? you would have bet and then the river play becomes easy. if you bet the whole way with aces you can be relatively sure that he was not bluffing on the river. while he may think you have aces, he also knows that you may have a flush and you could be betting it on sixth. this added possibility makes it worth a bet.

sometimes i think we rationalize a hand after the fact by things like demeanor, i know because i do it myself. you shouldnt let something as nebulous as that affect your play here.

given the way you played the hand you probably shoudl have called teh river, if for no other reason that it will be tough for others to bluff you. in stud if you are going to fold do it early, but dont look for reasons to fold late.here he acted strong and that would be enough for me to call. hell next time say "i dont have aces and bluff raise!!"

Pat

[MRBAA]

I want to stress that the "something about his demeanor" is something I felt at the time. I agree with your logic about how to play the hand, but the combination of my flush out being relatively dead if he did have the straight and my read of his body language led me to check. I also thought starting with 10-J J and catching a straight draw made sense as far as his willingness to call on fourth and fifth. I think it's important to act on reads. So often when I'm not in a hand, it will be obvious to me that someone has a hand. But when you're involved, it's harder to trust your read. Yet learning to do so can be a big positive. Look at it this way -- if I was right I potentially saved at least $40 and maybe $60 in bets (if I bet 6th, he raised and I called there and the river). That said, I think I should EITHER have bet sixth or called the river.

[Andy B]

I'm a bit of a pay station, but I almost never fold in spots like this. A few points:

1) Your sixth-street check invites your opponent to bluff. If you induce a bluff, you have to call it.

2) Your opponent has put on this kind of act before. He might just go for the reverse tell.

3) Your call doesn't have to be right that often to show a profit.

On the other hand, if you're beaten, you're beaten. You were there, and we weren't. If you felt that he had you, he more than likely did, and folding certainly can't be terrible. He's betting into a four-flush, and you have one lousy pair.

[SittingBull]

enough evidence to support your position.
BTW,he wanted u to call. In a situation like this only the CREAM OF THE CROPS in the poker world would fold.
BTW,since I'm not one of the "CREAMS",I would have given him my BB--and this is the main reason that my yearly earnsings is "flat"!
Great play!
HappyPokering,
SittingBull
/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[MRBAA]

Well, Bull, I'm glad you think it was a good fold. I think Andy had a good point about my check on 6th inviting a bluff, meaning if I'm going to check there I should probably consider calling 7th. I will say that I also took his coffeehousing as trying to induce a call, not a fold. I've had players flash one of their cards at me and do other things to try to induce confusion and provoke a call -- Caro talks about doing this. btw, in the current issue of cardplayer Dan Negreanu has a good column about folding queens up on "feel".