PP $11 - ITM. Can't not call this. Right?

[playtitleist]

Seat 3: playtitleist (4814)
Seat 5: DontYouCry (2221)
Seat 6: ricoguy (965)
ricoguy posts small blind (150)
playtitleist posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to playtitleist [ Jd, Kd ]
DontYouCry raises (2221) to 2221
DontYouCry is all-In.
ricoguy calls (815)
ricoguy is all-In.
playtitleist can’t fold

My possible outcomes:
playtitleist has best hand: game over

Rico has best hand:
- DYC beats me -> Rico 2895, DYC 2512, play 2593
- I beat DYC -> Rico 2895, play 5105

DYC has best hand:
- DYC 5407, play 2593

Rico eliminated with anything other than best hand. I think KJs is good enough here. I can't even tell what is the worst case here. DYC wins and I am down ~2:1? But, I've wrapped up 2nd and the blinds sizes make it such that 2593 is not such a bad position.

Gotta call it.

[bluefeet]

I feelya, but without evening offering an opinion yet, consider two other scenarios:

- you fold

DYC wins, you go HU, up 4514:3486

Rico wins, you continue to build your pre-HU stack up 4514:1256:2230

eh, I don't know. I see your point, but the two most likely results in your scenerios is holding 2k+ chips, either as a 2:1 dog HU, or back equal stacked 3 handed.

I'm thinking I like either of my two "gaurenteed" 4514 scenerios better.

[jedinite]

I agree - either you go in to HU with the chiplead or you get to keep your position as table captain.

At the $11 level i'd let this pass, at higher levels I can see where I might lean towards a call.

[playtitleist]

[ QUOTE ]
At the $11 level i'd let this pass, at higher levels I can see where I might lean towards a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I know why you would say this. I would think DYC's range is much tighter at the higher levels ($33 and above). Making it LESS of a chance I can win this pot and take down tourney now.

The more I think about it, I tend to agree with both of you, no real gain from calling beyond the off chance I can beat them both. But, I like the play if I held AJs instead of KJs. At what level would you call with AJs?

[jedinite]

At higher levels, if I had a read on the player as a smart agressive player its more likely that he's making this move on the bubble (thanks to the microstacks) with a much wider range - probably as wide as any two, unless he knows for sure you're calling with anything (i.e. you've posted 2/3 your stack as the BB) - and then its probably as wide as, say 70%

I don't know that its enough to make me call this just because my broadway is sooooted, you'd have to run ICM against a reasonable hand range.

I was mostly trying to say at the $11 its more likely that you're up against something you don't want to run out against, compared to a higher level where you might suspect the original raiser is making a move with almost any two.

I would fold, because I'm pretty confident that I can either steal more or find a better spot. If rico wins, then I can steal a LOT more because they'll be nearly tied in chips. If the other guy wins, then I'll be heads-up with a decent chip lead and I'll be happy with that. KJ is just so easily dominated, and if it's dominated by DYC then I'd be in a world of trouble because there's a nice chance for rico to win and then lose to DYC too.

[tshort]

I'm going to assume the following ranges for these calculations:

Assume button is pushing with 30% of logical pushing hands.

Assume SB is calling with 19% of logical calling hands.

This means I'm assuming a standard $11 player. If you had a different read these ranges would likely be wider and potentially a little tighter if they suck.

You have 6 outcomes:

Calling outcomes:

1) Win entire pot.

Result: 8000, 0, 0

$EV: 16.5

2) SB wins main pot. You win side pot.

$EV: 8.12

3) SB wins main pot. Button wins side pot.

$EV: 5.95

4) Button wins entire pot.

$EV: 11.3

Total Calling $EV: 41.5

Folding outcomes:

5) Buttons wins pot.

$EV: 17.4

6) SB wins pot.

$EV: 22.1

Total Folding $EV: 39.5

With standard reads, I would call. If you thought either or both players were tight/very tight then I would fold. If either/both players are loose I would call. If button is loose I would call regardless of SB read (I would like the idea of being heads up against SB if he is tight).

[playtitleist]

Thanks for the analysis. I did put button on a wide range, coming off a somewhat bad beat, which is why I called it.

I made the call. I was relatively happy with the outcome, but not particularly happy with the play. Thus the post.

I think it's very much read specific. Without reads, it's a gamble - not horrible, not good. I tend to lean to the "gamble for first, settle for third" line at the $11s. With reads, if button is tight at all, KJs is not good enough to call it.

Thanks for the responses.

[Sykes]

Depending if button has been stealing alot, his hand ranges can be superwide especially knowing that you can't call without a decent hand.

So, he could have any 2 cards here or he could be a tight-wad.

Let's say his hand range is:

22+, A2+, Any 2 broadway, T9/J9/Q9/K9

And let's say shortstacks calling range is:

55+, A7+, QJ/KT/KJ/KQ+

I would think you should have enough equity to call with KJs profitable.