Dumb Outs/Odds Questions

Hello!

I've just finished reading Getting Started in Hold'Em by Ed Miller and a lot of doubts came in my head.

1. I've seen people saying that they was with 8.5 outs. Where these .5 outs come from?

2. Here's the scenario: I'm at button with a flush drawn after the flop. There are $6 in the pot and it costs $2 to call. My pot odds are 3-1 and my odds to hit my flush by the river are 2-1. But I can't understand one thing: Why should I use the River Odds if I'm paying to see the turn only? :P

Thanks id advance,

Kav

[Tom1975]

These '.5' outs are called partial outs. I believe Ed discusses them in Small Statkes Hold 'Em; I've never read Getting Started. Anyway, the basic idea is it's an out where you can't be sure if it will give you the best hand. For example if you have K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on a board of 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, you can't count K's or Q's as total outs. Sure, they would give you top pair, but they also could give someone a straight or two pair, which is likely with this board. Therefore when calculating pot odds you can't count them as whole outs. You could however count any Ace or 9 as a complete out in this situtation, since it would give you the stone-cold nuts.

[ QUOTE ]
H

2. Here's the scenario: I'm at button with a flush drawn after the flop. There are $6 in the pot and it costs $2 to call. My pot odds are 3-1 and my odds to hit my flush by the river are 2-1. But I can't understand one thing: Why should I use the River Odds if I'm paying to see the turn only? :P

Thanks id advance,

Kav

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case, you use your river odds for hitting and IMPLIED pot odds because if you do not hit your flush on the turn, you are likely to see a bet.

So from what I see, this looks like 2-4 limit - since its a $2 bet after th flop. So now there is $6 in the pot, but you know that you are likely to see a $4 bet after the turn - and you will have to call that bet.

So, if you are using draw odds to the river, then my understanding is that you have to calculate your pot odds not as $2 to win $6 (as it is right now) but rather, as $6 to win $10, which is what you will be facing on the turn.

I am not sure if it is that straightforward, so perhaps someone can correct me in terms of how you calculate implied odds.

[Pov]

Your questions are not dumb and are actually somewhat difficult to answer. Ed Miller's SSHE does a very nice job of discussing partial outs. In essence, you can't always fully count an out because you don't know it will make you a winner. For instance, let's say you hold AK on a T85 board. You are bet into. Now you would at first think you had 6 outs with the 3 Aces and 3 Kings, but really if you use the odds for 6 outs you are somewhat overestimating your hand. You only have 3 outs against a player holding AT and you have virtually none against a player holding 88. So giving yourself the full six would lead you to draw incorrectly. You don't know if you're up against these or similar hands, but you frequently will be so you discount your six outs. How much you discount them is based upon how likely they are to help your opponent, but the rule of thumb is to call overcards .5 outs each. Partial outs are also used to quantify your two card draws such as QJ in this case. The typical one is valuing a 3-flush as a 1.5 out draw - a debateable point but regardless of what camp you fall into this is a reasonable valuation of your backdoor flush draw on the flop. Here your odds aren't that good since you need precisely one Queen and one Jack - you could call that .5 outs. If you happened to also have a 3-flush right now you could value your hand as (6 * .5) overcards + .5 backdoor straight + 1.5 backdoor flush to come up with 5 outs for your hand.

For your second question, you're getting into the matters of pot equity and implied odds. This is particularly useful in large multi-way pots. For instance, let's say there are several players in the hand in which case you should almost certainly raise for value (as well as the possible free card opportunity). If you are going to hit your flush 1/3 of the time (and it wins) then 1/3 of the money going into the pot on the flop is "yours" in pot equity. With 3 or 4 players besides yourself putting in money you should realize that you're actually making money on these bets because you're putting in less than the 1/3 you theoretically get back out. This is frequently referred to as "pumping your flush draw". The money already in the pot is just icing on the cake.

Why would you use the river odds when you might have to pay again on the turn? Well, this is another debateable point, but basically the way I look at it, I make my draw on the turn roughly half of the time that I make it. When that occurs I get an extra round to gather bets (sometimes several) from my opponents which offsets the times I am the one paying the extra turn bet to see the river. This is called implied odds. They account for the extra money I can win when I make my hand and sometimes I'll make my hand early which increases my implied odds even more. Tough opponents hurt your implied odds because they are unlikely to pay you off big and multiple bad opponents increase your implied odds because you may find yourself able to not only bet but raise after making your hand against them. On the reverse side of the coin sometimes the turn will check through and you'll see the river for free. Sometimes you'll pick up a pair on the turn to go with your flush draw. Sometimes it will be bet and raised right in front of you after the board pairs and you may decide to fold in the smaller pots without putting more money in so really the turn will only cost you some fraction of a bet with that fraction changing based upon table conditions. The easy way to account for this is to just let the turn card take care of itself. I would do less of this with smaller draws such as gutshots and one-paired hands where you're less likely to be drawing to a winner. As you improve you'll actually start to estimate all the above factors instinctively and you won't really use the river odds or the turn odds, you'll just make the play that makes you the most money based on all of the above and more. Quite the challenge, eh?

Pov...excellent explanation of this topic! This is an area that takes a bit of time to fully digest. I'm sure that there are many of us who are still learning to understand this. Thanks for the explanation!

I have a question about calculating pot equity. I've seen pot equity discussed, but I'm fuzzy on calculating it.

Assuming your draw is to the best hand, do you just utilize your odds? For example, if I have 9 outs after the turn, do I just put my pot equity at about 20%(9 out of 46 cards make my hand)? And how about adjusting for what *may* be the best hand?

Thanks!

[GrunchCan]

If you are on a draw to the nuts, take the number of outs you have that will improve your hand. Multiply your outs by 4 on the flop, or by 2 on the turn. The result is your pot equity in percent. It's just an estimate, but it's close enough.

In the case of a nut flush draw, you have 9 outs. On the flop your equity is about 36%, and on the turn it's about 18%.

If you aren't hitting to the nuts, estimate what the chances are that you will win if you hit your hand. (With practice & study you'll get better at this.) Say you have 9 outs to a flush draw, but you think you'll only win 2/3 of the time if you hit the flush you're drawing to. In this case, perform the same calculation as above, but first determine your discounted outs by multiplying the total number of outs by the chance to win if you hit.

In this case, 9 cards improve us to our flush, but we only win 66% of the time when we hit. 9 * 66% = 6. Our hand is 'worth' 6 outs. On the flop we have 6*4 = 24% equity, on the turn we have 6*2=12% equity.

This also touches on why people talk about having something like 8.5 outs. Its not that there are 8.5 cards that improve Hero's hand. It's that the number of cards that improve Hero's hand multiplied by the chance that we'll win when we hit the hand wer'e drawing to result in our hand being worth 8.5 outs. That's all. The only tricky part is knowing how often you'll win when you draw out.