22's Bubble - Go for the win, or ensure the money?

[otnemem]

This is probably a really straightforward answer. Wonder if anyone thinks this is the wrong play:

4 left, blinds 150-300. Hero is BB with ~1200 after posting. UTG and button each have a healthy stack. SB, on auto, is all in for <150. Button raises to 1500. Hero has 77.

Fold into the money, or risk bubbling against an "away" in order to double up and hopefully win?

[Hornacek]

Fold. 77 is marginal, and if SB wakes up with 2 overs and beats both of you, you'd be kicking yourself in the face. Once you get ITM though, you need to start being REALLY aggressive.

[aaronk56]

You would have to lose to both of them to be kicking yourself.

[kevkev60614]

One of my first shots at math, so here goes:
I assumed the big stack has two overs, used ICM and PokerStove. Then I rounded wherever I felt like it.

If you call:
40% chance of big stack winning =20% of prizes
40% chance of you winning =39% of prizes
10% chance of you coming in 2nd behind shortie =34% of prizes
10% chance of you crying yourself to sleep =0% of prizes
=.4*.2+.4*.39+.1*.34+.1*0=.27

If you fold
60% chance of biggie beating shortie =27% of prizes
40% chance of shortie winning=22% of prizes
=.6*.27+.4*.22=.25

So call. How's my math, all?

[kevkev60614]

The most interesting thing I learned here:
If you fold, the worst the big stack can do is break even. Even if he loses, he snags half your big blind. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I assumed two overs here, but I really think that's probably a worst-case scenario. Villain is much less likely to be doing this with a pair higher than 77 than he is having A4, IMO.

I can see the dilema, with the SB looking like a good chance to go out. I probably call here, however, because I think it is an excellent opportunity to put myself in position to win 1st place. The button raising 5X to me says he has a lower pocket pair or two overs, and wants to take the blinds and take out the SB. That means you are likely either on the better side of a coin toss with him or have him dominated (probably a coin toss). The SB is allin with a random hand, which, with any luck, you have dominated (probably at least one under card). That means you are going into a situation where you have a coin flip against the villain/raiser, and hopefully have the villain short stack dominated. Probably only about a 20% chance, if that, that you end up out of the money here (beat by both hands), and over a 50% chance to double. Calling is a no brainer I should think.

[jedinite]

.25 to fold versus .27 to call - I'm going to fold here 99% of the time with 77, unless i've got a specific read on the agressor.

There's value to keeping the small stack around, so in the event the away player does manage to win you can still exploit the bubble for another orbit.

I can't see passing up whats an almost guaranteed ITM for a .02 edge in ICM here.

Edit: Also, I don't think you can narrow the agressor to just overcards. I'd be curious what the ICM numbers are for a more reasonable range from the button (any pocket pair + overcards, perhaps 44+ JT+ Ax-Kx) + the random holding for the SB.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
There's value to keeping the small stack around

[/ QUOTE ]
wtf. Not when you're the 2nd shortest stack. There's value in keeping the short stack around FOR THE BIG STACKS. It's terrible for you.

[chisness]

true

[bluefeet]

very easy call IMO.

[kevkev60614]

[ QUOTE ]
.25 to fold versus .27 to call - I'm going to fold here 99% of the time with 77, unless i've got a specific read on the agressor.

[/ QUOTE ]

2% of the prizes is a substantial amount. 2% is the worst case scenario IMO, as I stated above.

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see passing up whats an almost guaranteed ITM for a .02 edge in ICM here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're more likely to end up ITM if you call. There's only about a 10% chance both of you lose to the SB and you lose to the big stack. Being all-in is sort of the same as checking it down to knock out shortie. Both of your hands will play.

In my mind, you're essentially being aggressive with a very good hand when it's 3 handed, only you're doing it one hand early.

[otnemem]

[ QUOTE ]
In my mind, you're essentially being aggressive with a very good hand when it's 3 handed, only you're doing it one hand early.

[/ QUOTE ]

But I'm not being aggressive. I'm calling off my whole stack to what is most likely a coin flip. I'd rather be pushing here on the button with 77, not calling all-in...

[jedinite]

I agree.

I'd really like to see the ICM numbers for the villain's reasonable range I think its probably closer than +.02 with that range.

According to ICM both folding and calling are +EV (current $EV is .233) so its not a terrible decision either way. I'm more likely to pass and push the next hand - even if the SB wins this afk, odds are he's KOd in four hands when he passes the blinds for the second time.

Call. Go for the win. 3rd place money is like kissing your sister.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd really like to see the ICM numbers for the villain's reasonable range...

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the key. Because "you can't possibly call", there are basically 450 "dead chips" up for grabs.

Villian simply cannot lose money pushing here, knowing YOUR calling range. Even his greatest risk is presumably nowhere near ruin (I'm guessing "healthy" has you 2:1'ish).

Run the numbers with "any 2", see what you get...because I'm pushing literally "any 2" into you here.

Edit: This is not a "play for 1st" reasoning. With his pushing range, this is a clear call IMO.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
Run the numbers with "any 2", see what you get...because I'm pushing literally "any 2" into you here.

[/ QUOTE ]You're right.

But I don't see a lot of pushing any two at the $22 here, just because there doesn't seem to be that much talent at the $22. We're going to get to see his hand against the SB and I'd lay 10-1 in this specific case (baring a specific read that the button is a 2+2'er) that he's not pushing any two.

[otnemem]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd really like to see the ICM numbers for the villain's reasonable range...

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the key. Because "you can't possibly call", there are basically 450 "dead chips" up for grabs.

Villian simply cannot lose money pushing here, knowing YOUR calling range. Even his greatest risk is presumably nowhere near ruin (I'm guessing "healthy" has you 2:1'ish).

Run the numbers with "any 2", see what you get...because I'm pushing literally "any 2" into you here.

Edit: This is not a "play for 1st" reasoning. With his pushing range, this is a clear call IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gotta say, you're really taking the use of "quotation marks" to the next level.

[bluefeet]

"lol" /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[otnemem]

I fold. Button shows A7 to my folded 77. SB has two rags. A7 holds up (unimproved, dammit!) and I coast into third. I go out a few hands later as a small favorite - AJ to KQ or something...