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View Full Version : Final week

mrbaseball
09-29-2005, 08:43 AM
The final week is shaping up just like always. The contenders (Bos, NY, Cle) are stumbling along while getting waaaaay overpriced. Like yesterday todays lines for them are way out in the stratosphere meaning you have no choice but to take the other side.

This happens every year, for some reason the public is convinced the contenders can't lose to teams out of it and nothing could be further from the truth. Nobody is laying down for these guys.
whipsaw
09-29-2005, 09:04 AM
Nice post, definitely worthwhile to fade NYY and BOS until they begin play against each other on Friday. Cleveland is also getting some juicy lines lately as well. I think the BOS line is especially laughable today. Clement gets shelled against TOR while Downs picks up a W against the Sox and Boston is the one with the -200ish line? C'mon.
09-29-2005, 09:15 AM
Pride is a heavily undervalued commodity across sports wagering.
whipsaw
09-29-2005, 09:20 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Pride is a heavily undervalued commodity across sports wagering.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you mean... I have no pride in my sports wagering, and I could use more. /images/graemlins/grin.gif
09-29-2005, 09:38 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pride is a heavily undervalued commodity across sports wagering.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you mean... I have no pride in my sports wagering, and I could use more. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

good one lol
scalf
09-29-2005, 10:03 AM
mr b:

i agree; play the cannot win scums; also on alt run line some +400 there..

jmho gl

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Salva135
09-29-2005, 10:56 AM
The Yanks may have gotten spanked on Tuesday but I think they are far from stumbling. Fading the Sox and Indians is fine, but the Orioles really ARE phoning it in right now...
mrbaseball
09-29-2005, 11:00 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Orioles really ARE phoning it in right now

[/ QUOTE ]

Yankee fan? The phoned in 17 frikken runs and then held that lineup to just 2. They don't look they are giving up to me.
EZB
09-29-2005, 11:43 AM
can someone please explain to me the alt run line deal? i dont get it!?
mrbaseball
09-29-2005, 11:50 AM
Typical runline the underdog gets the runs in an alternate runline the dog GIVES the runs often resulting in a pretty long odds situation.
ThomasJoe
09-29-2005, 12:32 PM
I think there is some value in playing a middle in the Detroit/CWS game. I am going to take Detroit plus 1.5 runs and lay the 58 on CWS. This is about the right price to try and hit this middle. I also like the game being in Detroit which favors a low scoring game. Only problem with this play is I like Detroit to win, as Garcia has not been all that great lately. Any comments? Game goes at 1:00 pm.
scalf
09-29-2005, 01:07 PM
/images/graemlins/grin.gif gl i had the chisox last nite and won; but lost 3 parlays because of the "meaningless runs" the sox scored in top ninth to crack my under to small pieces

gl

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif
DougOzzzz
09-29-2005, 03:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Orioles really ARE phoning it in right now

[/ QUOTE ]

Yankee fan? The phoned in 17 frikken runs and then held that lineup to just 2. They don't look they are giving up to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding? Bet AGAINST Aaron Small? Are you nuts?
mrbaseball
09-29-2005, 04:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Are you kidding? Bet AGAINST Aaron Small? Are you nuts?


[/ QUOTE ]

Only when the price is right /images/graemlins/smile.gif
whipsaw
09-29-2005, 04:38 PM
Red Sox homer.
ThomasJoe
09-29-2005, 04:41 PM
Well it was close but no cigar. final 4-2. Still think it was a good play. Always good to lose this play when the chalk wins su. Don't like a similar play on NYY tonight cause the NYY offense is so potent.
20Five
09-29-2005, 05:57 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The final week is shaping up just like always. The contenders (Bos, NY, Cle) are stumbling along while getting waaaaay overpriced. Like yesterday todays lines for them are way out in the stratosphere meaning you have no choice but to take the other side.

This happens every year, for some reason the public is convinced the contenders can't lose to teams out of it and nothing could be further from the truth. Nobody is laying down for these guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

cheers to that!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif
DougOzzzz
09-30-2005, 12:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Red Sox homer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, sure. I'm a Red Sox fan. I've also been about as pessimistic concerning the Sox as any other fan here. I think the Red Sox are inferior to the Yankees, and are lucky to be in position to win the division.

I still think Small is a lucky SOB. However, with Small, Chacon, etc. putting up impressive numbers despite poor K and BB rates, the credit I believe should go to the Yankee defense - which somehow went from awful to good despite few changes.

Clement's line was terrible last night. -240 for a guy who has been mediocre on the season and lousy since the all-star break? Clement's numbers in the 2nd half have been poor no matter how you look at them - ERA up, weak W-L record, large drop in K rate, more BBs, more hits.

I'm an objective fan of the Sox. I've bet on them 3 times this year. I realize that most the time the line is skewed to take advantage of Boston fans. But I still think David Wells is a better pitcher than Aaron Small.
mrbaseball
09-30-2005, 12:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Clement's numbers in the 2nd half have been poor

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think the headshot did him in. He was never really the same after that.
Salva135
09-30-2005, 05:56 PM
On the contrary, I'm a Sox fan, and I said aside from that one game, where it looked like they might actually be trying. The Yankees had all momentum going into last night -- to fade them would have been a joke. The Orioles packed it up weeks ago and finished laughably. They are a perfect rebuttal of the pride theory. The Jays, on the other hand...