BK and I disagree

[Schneids]

This hand occured tonight at Canterbury $30/60, in which BK and I disagree about which is the right flop decision.

3 limpers to BK in the CO and he raises. Our hero (not me) cold calls with 33. Both blinds call. 7 to the flop.

Flop 554 two clubs (hero has 3c). Checked to our hero on the button.

Background: SB is very LAG, would have likely bet out here with any piece of the board. He plays decent in big pots and isn't afraid to splash around. There's a chance he'll checkraise with overcards, and likely will take one off. BB is likely to get out unless he has flopped a good draw or made hand. Ditto UTG. UTG+1, another limper, is a tight player who is likely on tilt at the moment and loosening up his hand range because he's running bad. MP1, our last limper, is someone who sees 50% of flops and chases too often post flop, but likely would have bet into BK with any piece or draw. CO is BK, our PFR.

So, we're likely looking at a bet eliminating 1-4 opponents, most likely 2-3.

Should he bet here or check?

[mike l.]

given the pot size button should definitely bet this flop and hope some people let hands go that they shouldnt.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
given the pot size button should definitely bet this flop and hope some people let hands go that they shouldnt.

[/ QUOTE ]

plus you have awesome position and you can hope that SB check-raises overcards or something and clears out a huge field for you

i vote bet

[The Truth]

What is the likely hood of someone leading into you on the turn if you bet the flop. How often will the check the turn to you? I think this is important when deciding.


-blake

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
given the pot size button should definitely bet this flop and hope some people let hands go that they shouldnt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to bias answers, but this is exactly what I told my roommate (hero) in the carride back to our apartment. He did bet and a few minutes after the hand BK was telling him he should have checked the flop for a free shot at a 2-outer since it's unlikely he'd win the pot unimproved.

Maybe someone else will come on here and explain why that is right but I was just floored hearing that BK thought this flop should be checked through.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the likely hood of someone leading into you on the turn if you bet the flop. How often will the check the turn to you? I think this is important when deciding.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not too often. Most CB hands follow flow and outside of about 6-8 young guys in this game almost nobody ever donk bets (and if any of these guys do, you are beat).

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is the likely hood of someone leading into you on the turn if you bet the flop. How often will the check the turn to you? I think this is important when deciding.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not too often. Most CB hands follow flow and outside of about 6-8 young guys in this game almost nobody ever donk bets (and if any of these guys do, you are beat).

[/ QUOTE ]


i'd like to see bk's reasoning here because with your read on SB combined with this it's a clear bet no?

[mike l.]

"I was just floored hearing that BK thought this flop should be checked through."

only thing i could think is bk wasnt fully honest he just wished 33 button had checked so he could get a free look at the turn with his K9s or whatever. understandable sentiment.

anyway the large pot size dictates everything here and this is not a time to take the free card. it would be correct to bet a lot of hands on the button when checked to here in an attempt to take control of the hand, clean up outs, clear out players, and set it up to be yours if at all possible. 33 is more than sufficient enough hand to bet here.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
7 to the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Checked to our hero on the button.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB is very LAG, would have likely bet out here with any piece of the board. ... There's a chance he'll checkraise with overcards

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Should he bet here or check?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet!

[bicyclekick]

If schneids descriptions were true then I like a bet.

SB isn't nearly the lag he's making him out to be and he's not check/raising over cards here on this flop with the lineup. And the whole blinds/utg etc will fold without a draw/made hand is just freaking crap. I can't count how many times a late position player and EVERY SINGLE PLAYER (read: like 6!) would call the bet. If they have over cards they're calling.

There is no reason to bet this flop given the line-up. You might clear out one, be forced to bet the turn again cause the pot is so huge and given the field I just don't think you're ahead and going to stay ahead often enough to justify betting instead of taking a free turn card. You may even not get to see if it gets raised and re-raised.

[Ezcheeze]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no reason to bet this flop given the line-up. You might clear out one

[/ QUOTE ]
It would be nice to get some poeple to incorrectly fold but even if they never ever fold to your bet it could easily still be right. If you are favored to have the best hand at the moment then given the texture of the board (the fact that it's unlikely for someone to have two overcards +guthshot or better if they don't have a pair. If one of them has a flush draw well that sucks but with no one betting how often will that be the case?) then a bet is going to make you money.

[ QUOTE ]
be forced to bet the turn again cause the pot is so huge and given the field I just don't think you're ahead and going to stay ahead often enough to justify betting instead of taking a free turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]
One of the main reasons I would bet here is because not only are you probably a favorite on the flop but you get to see what the turn card is AND what everyone else does before you have to make any decision on the turn. That's alot of flexibilty. In fact you could be a dog on the flop and have betting still be right given the ability to correctly evaluate whats going on in the hand awarded to you by your excellent position.

[jayheaps]

easy check. In fact, your 2-outer might not even be good and would definitely set up a bunch of redraws.

[imashyboi]

The best play here is to bet. Why would you check the flop when the action gets to you? The pot is pretty big at this point and you might be able to fold overcards which will make it easier for you on future rounds. On the turn, I'm betting here again and hopefully no one has hit anything yet. If someone does raise I can easily let it go. I don't think theres alot of players out there who would bluff in this spot specially when theres several callers.

[Klepton]

yeah, which one of you wanna check, cuz i wanna make fun of you.

[girgy44]

What limit is this? Because if this is a lower limit CB game there is no way the SB c/r's overs. In those games they ussually c/r a made hand and maybe a big draw. Additionally if the sb does call then there is a good chance that he will get everyone to call(or at least 3-4 more). Gutterballs aren't folding, backdoor flushes with overs dont fold here, ect. Just like how when utg limps pre-flop it often starts a complete limpfest b/c everyone else thinks that they just became pot committed.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't count how many times a late position player and EVERY SINGLE PLAYER (read: like 6!) would call the bet. If they have over cards they're calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like a good overlay and a reason to bet!

[Paluka]

Do you guys think there is a big differnce here between betting and checking? This feels like a close one to me.

[Ezcheeze]

As I wrote above, I don't think this one is close at all. But even if it was, we all still benefit by clearly stating and understanding all the reasons for betting or checking.

I like a check here. Your going to get 3-4 callers and your not going to win this hand unimproved most likly. Betting just seems like spewing a bet, it would be different with 3-4 pot but not with 7 players in it.

[DeeJ]

eeen-tresting

I think this depends on your read of SB. If bk is right, he may not checkraise. If schneids is right, he almost certainly will. Certainly the free card is attractive because you can pick up a huge hand well disguised that can win big.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
But even if it was, we all still benefit by clearly stating and understanding all the reasons for betting or checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely.

Just wondering:

If what you say about the line-up is true, why did you raise preflop? What good did it for you?

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are favored to have the best hand at the moment then given the texture of the board (the fact that it's unlikely for someone to have two overcards +guthshot or better if they don't have a pair. If one of them has a flush draw well that sucks

[/ QUOTE ]

There were 3 limpers and the blinds called a single raise. I wouldn't say it's particularily unlikely that someone has 67, 68, or 78 for a gutshot +overs or better. Also with 6 opponents a flush draw is not particularily unlikely.

If, as BK says, SB is unlikely to raise overs, and you are unlikely to get more than 1 fold, I think I like the check behind. Against a field this big 33 is unlikely to have an equity advantage. If the scenario is like Schneids says and you are somewhat likely to get a raise from overs by the SB and you are likely to get several folds, then that changes things quite a bit obviously.

One scenario below where the best draw is a gutshot + overs and 33 is a dog:

3c 3d 98 16.47 488 82.02 9 1.51 0.167
Qc Ah 116 19.50 448 75.29 31 5.21 0.216
8c 7d 125 21.01 456 76.64 14 2.35 0.216
Td Jh 50 8.40 531 89.24 14 2.35 0.090
Js Kd 90 15.13 491 82.52 14 2.35 0.158
As 9s 21 3.53 538 90.42 36 6.05 0.060
9h 8h 49 8.24 527 88.57 19 3.19 0.093

You have somewhat better than fair share equity, but this example also includes a fair amount of overlap of cards, no flush draw and no pair, so it's a pretty great situation for you. When you include some chance that someone has a flush draw, a 4, a 5 or a pocket pair then things look way worse.

B.

[jayheaps]

I don't see what betting accomplishes here except building a pot where you can't be ahead and likely given the size can't get any draws or overs to fold. I check this without thinking.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering:

If what you say about the line-up is true, why did you raise preflop? What good did it for you?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Flop 554 two clubs (hero has 3c). Checked to our hero on the button. "

[Luke]

BK raised from the CO and "hero" cold called on the button with the pocket 3s.

Luke

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see what betting accomplishes here except building a pot where you can't be ahead and likely given the size can't get any draws or overs to fold. I check this without thinking

[/ QUOTE ]

Well.. yeah...

Seems like the correct play hinges on the hero's reads (which may not be BK's reads). Feels like betting the flop works given what Schneids put forth.

[Tommy Angelo]

I'd bet, for lots of reasons.

1) I might have the best hand.

2) Maybe somebody will fold.

3) Maybe somebody will checkraise with a draw and the hand will right away go to heads up with me last with a pair against a possible bluff which equals easy showdown if I wanna.

4) But here's the main reason. If no one checkraises after I bet the flop, then maybe whoever is still in there on the turn will check the turn to me and I can decide then if I want to bet my pair if I think it's still good, or check it if I think it isn't, and take the infinite odds I am getting to catch a three. (Plus I might pick up a straight draw on the turn as well.) I really like the idea of seeing the turn and river for one small bet. And even if I don't improve, I'll be in position to call down a river bluff if that seems right, or check behind on the river if it comes to that, or maybe even bet the river for value if I get checked to again. Lots of good things can happen on this hand that all start with a flop bet.

Tommy

[J.A.Sucker]

... and I was gonna just say "bet 'cause that's what you're supposed to do, 'cause that's what feels right." I like what you said better. Good to see you yesterday, boss.

[bernie]

It's a little easier if it's a rainbow flop.

I'd bet. Anyone folding getting at least 15-1 is folding wrong most likely.

If a non flush card/no A hits you may have to bet again. Or you can take the free card but remember, you're now inducing a bluff on the river. So it may be better to bet the turn and take a free showdown if possible. The turn is where youd be representing a pair more than the flop. They'll probably put you on an overpair to the flop at that point.

It's almost a 'which street do you want for free' deal. Any heat and you're gone.

I think it's close.

b

[mike l.]

"You may even not get to see if it gets raised and re-raised."

i was trying to think of some games i might not bet it in. i think the commerce 1-2 game might be one of them. if it's very likely to get checkraised and then reraised in a chip flurry attempt to take control of the pot by several ultra aggros then checking might be a little better. but that doesnt sound like the game youre describing.

[PokerCad]

Good info thread, I like Tommy's take

[Masquerade]

Just take the free card. The pot is big enough that anything plausible is almost worth a call so betting wont necessarily mean that callers are making a mistake. There are plenty of good cards for you on the turn. Sometimes exploiting position means taking a free card in this spot.

[hobbsmann]

A nearly identical situation with some interesting discussion for those interested (commerce 9/18 hand from jason_t)

22 hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2987569&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=3&vc=1)

My bad, thanks /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[arkady]

Personally, I bet - the only argument for checking would be to raise any turn, which may or may not be a good move. I for one don't think it is, since you are representing a 5 and given how many people saw the flop, no one would believe that trips check on the button....but its possible I guess.

[Masquerade]

Holding 22 on a T44 flop isnt a nearly identical situation to holding 3c 3x on a 5c 4c 5x board. It's totally unrelated situation. You only have 2 outs.

In this case any 2 or 6 lets you continue, with the 6c or 2c giving you a strong hand in addition to the two 3s. Thats why checking and taking the free card is better.

[obi---one]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet, for lots of reasons.

1) I might have the best hand.

2) Maybe somebody will fold.

3) Maybe somebody will checkraise with a draw and the hand will right away go to heads up with me last with a pair against a possible bluff which equals easy showdown if I wanna.

4) But here's the main reason. If no one checkraises after I bet the flop, then maybe whoever is still in there on the turn will check the turn to me and I can decide then if I want to bet my pair if I think it's still good, or check it if I think it isn't, and take the infinite odds I am getting to catch a three. (Plus I might pick up a straight draw on the turn as well.) I really like the idea of seeing the turn and river for one small bet. And even if I don't improve, I'll be in position to call down a river bluff if that seems right, or check behind on the river if it comes to that, or maybe even bet the river for value if I get checked to again. Lots of good things can happen on this hand that all start with a flop bet.

Tommy

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah, what he says

[jogger08152]

This is a check and it's nowhere close.

You can't lose a flush draw or straight draw (both of which you'd like to see fold), an overpair and/or a 4 will certainly checkraise you and a 5 may also, and you don't want to lose anybody with "just" overs - they're your padding in case you catch a draw you'd like to chase. Moreover, you -already- have a free turn, and in this case, a turn in the hand is worth two -EV bets in the bush.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Haven't looked at the other responses.

Even if there is a chance Hero is ahead on the flop he is very unlikely to stay ahead on the turn with the best case two opponents (and three or four opponents is more likely per your analyis) without improvement.

IMHO this looks like a spot to take a free card hoping to spike an underfull since betting essentially doesn't improve your chances at winning.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
anyway the large pot size dictates everything here and this is not a time to take the free card. it would be correct to bet a lot of hands on the button when checked to here in an attempt to take control of the hand, clean up outs, clear out players, and set it up to be yours if at all possible. 33 is more than sufficient enough hand to bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

mike,

I'm about to zonk out (late late no limit is the nuts /images/graemlins/smile.gif ) but the way I looked at it is 33 with this board and situation isn't a hand that needs protection, it's a hand that needs to improve against what is likely to be (per Sneids) three or four opponents on the turn. The only good card for the button other than a three is a deuce. Everything else is likely to hit one of his three or four opponents.

The button clearly wants a free card here. He got a chance to get one and he should take it.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
SB is very LAG, would have likely bet out here with any piece of the board. ... There's a chance he'll checkraise with overcards

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Should he bet here or check?

Bet!

[/ QUOTE ]

If the likelyhood of a field clearing UTG checkraise is in fact fairly reasonable, then betting might make a lot more sense. But it seems like a dream parley to me.

~ Rick