$55: Mystified. Do donks still do this in the 55's?

[llabb]

NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5
Level:2 Blinds(15/30)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: urgggh ( $840 )
Seat 2: virgin99 ( $2165 )
Seat 3: mikepal1970 ( $2140 )
Seat 4: Hero ( $885 )
Seat 5: BigFold111 ( $1025 )
Seat 6: centgas20 ( $905 )
Seat 10: oasisofaces ( $2040 )
Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Kc Ad ]
oasisofaces folds.
urgggh folds.
virgin99 folds.
mikepal1970 folds.
Hero raises [90].
BigFold111 is all-In [1010]
centgas20 folds.

Hero??

Folded around to me on the button, standard raise, SB goes all-in on level 2?!
First thought: total donk.
Second thought: He assumes I'm stealing, how bad is his range of hands to do this with?
Third thought: Uh-oh, could this possibly be a Lorinda overbet with Aces or Kings?

Thoughts on the villain's hand and my move?

[unfrgvn]

He's got a little pair, 2's thru 7's or so. Caveat, I've only played 1 55 in my life, just guessing. I would fold, wait and see if you can catch him when you have an overpair.

[axeshigh]

I'd need JJ to call here. I'd put him on 55-TT, AK-AJ, KQ. And yes, this is fairly frequent at the 55s, though not as much as at the lower limits.

[chisness]

AK is most likely imo

it makes sense because he doesn't want to put in a big rr then miss -- btw if he does have AK, i don't think this is that bad and with 700 or less i think it's best

I fold this every time at level 2 with only 90 in the pot.

AK is too much of a drawing hand for my liking. This definitely smells like a mid pair to me. The steal with suited gaps doesn't make sense at level 2, AND, it could always be worse - the dreaded overbet with AA or KK.

[MegaBet]

Auto call.

[bjb23]

[ QUOTE ]
Auto call.

[/ QUOTE ]

really this is an autocall for you? what range do you put this guy on? do they really do this at the 55's with aq/aj/kq?? i guess there is also a 135 chip overlay so a low,mid pp is not necessarily the worst thing in the world. just curious what you would expect the villian to turn over here. i would have to expect ak/88-jj.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Auto call.

[/ QUOTE ]

really this is an autocall for you? what range do you put this guy on? do they really do this at the 55's with aq/aj/kq?? i guess there is also a 135 chip overlay so a low,mid pp is not necessarily the worst thing in the world. just curious what you would expect the villian to turn over here. i would have to expect ak/88-jj.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the money already in the pot, it's mathematically correct to call if you put villain on 22-QQ or AK. To be honest, I have seen people make this play qith AQ, AJ and KQs. If they are sneaky enough to push here with kings or aces (highly unlikely), then I'd have to accept I was outplayed here.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
With the money already in the pot, it's mathematically correct to call if you put villain on 22-QQ or AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this cash game mentality? In a tournament, where you have a very slight mathematical gain by calling what is likely a coinflip, but are out of the tournament if you lose, you should be much less inclined to call... at least when blinds are this low and your stack after folding will be this large in relation to them.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With the money already in the pot, it's mathematically correct to call if you put villain on 22-QQ or AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this cash game mentality? In a tournament, where you have a very slight mathematical gain by calling what is likely a coinflip, but are out of the tournament if you lose, you should be much less inclined to call... at least when blinds are this low and your stack after folding will be this large in relation to them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't pot odds play a HUGE part in SNGs. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Unless I have a solid read that my opponent has AA or KK (from past games), I'm calling. Risk-taking is what SNGs are all about.

[the_joker]

With 135 already in the pot before the all-in raise, I think this is approximately similar to calling an all-in with the blinds at 50/100. If you run the numbers through SNGPT with blinds at 50/100, putting yourself in the big blind, with the villans push of 66+,AQo+, then it is a fold. It's definitely dependant on your opponents range of hands. I'd be less inclined to call against a good player.

[wiggs73]

Of course pot odds are important. I didn't mean to imply that they should be ignored.

All I was saying is that some decisions (I think this is one) shouldn't be made by analyzing the pot odds alone. They should go into the equation on every hand you play, but I think there are more successful ways to go about tournament play than saying "the pot is offering me the correct odds to call, so I will call".

In this situation, Hero will be in fine shape by folding. Obviously, a call and a win would be quite helpful, but a call and a lose will result in busting out of the tournament. I don't like busting 50% of the time here.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that this early, the odds that you can build a big stack more risk-aversly may somehow outweight the odds that you're getting from the pot to call. I'd call in this situation later in the tournament, and I don't think a call is horrible here or anything (since the pot is offering the correct odds), I just think a fold may be a slightly better option. Just my .02 though.

[BadMongo]

So you'd fold AK here with dead money in the pot and 58% equity against the range you have him on? Just checking...

[wiggs73]

Alright, I misread Hero's stack size. I'd probably be more inclined to call because I don't really like having a stack of <800 going into the next level of blinds. Having t1800 would be significantly better (to the point that I would risk busting half the time to get there), and I'd probably call because of this. But not because of the pot odds.

[BadMongo]

I have to agree. I'm not giving the guy credit for a big pair unless I have an unusual read that indicates otherwise. Very few players will play AA or KK this way. I think the most likely hand for villian to have is AK or a mid pocket pair. Without a read, I'd put him on a range of AQ+, 88-QQ. Hero is a slight favourite against this range, and there is dead money in the pot. I think it's a call.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be less inclined to call against a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would a "good player" be pushing AA or KK like this? They are the ONLY hands I would hate to see.

[kevstreet]

I wouldn't be surprised to see JJ. I've seen that hand played this way on all the levels ranging from $11s-$55s. Of course more prevalent in the $11s & $22s but I've seen it in a few of the higher SnGs.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
Auto call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoah... I do not know about that. To be honest I think this is AA or KK alot more than you do. I'll let the call fold debate continue, but this is not an autocall.

[BadMongo]

Hero's stack size is not an important factor here. 800 chips is plenty to work with, and can't justify making a bad call. If you think a call is -EV, why on earth would you call just because you 'only' have 800 chips?

The important factor here is the SB's range. If we can agree on that, the rest is just math.

[the_joker]

Since most people seem to be advocating to call here, I'd say good players should be pushing AA, KK after someone raises /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
Since most people seem to be advocating to call here, I'd say good players should be pushing AA, KK after someone raises /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, funny

[BadMongo]

Yeah, I agree, that's why I included it in the range. JJ and AK are the two most likely hands that hero will be shown, IMO.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero's stack size is not an important factor here. 800 chips is plenty to work with, and can't justify making a bad call. If you think a call is -EV, why on earth would you call just because you 'only' have 800 chips?

The important factor here is the SB's range. If we can agree on that, the rest is just math.

[/ QUOTE ]

And we loop round to my original post. I'm glad you guys got there in the end.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Auto call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoah... I do not know about that. To be honest I think this is AA or KK alot more than you do. I'll let the call fold debate continue, but this is not an autocall.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you will lose a of of pots that you should have won.

[BadMongo]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif I was never advocating a fold...

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/confused.gif I was never advocating a fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

cool, then you would be correct /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[wiggs73]

In response to the plethora of posts after my last one...

I think with starting stacks of 1k, having 800 when blinds reach 25/50 isn't really the best situation to be in. It's not horrible or anything, but I'd MUCH rather have t1800 to play with. You can do things this forum hates, like see flops and such.

For me, and I know I'm going against the majority here, but it actually isn't a simple of question of math. I never said that I put villain on a range any different than anyone else did. That's why I keep repeating that you do have the odds to call. I just said that I don't call every single time that I have the odds to.

In a cash game, this would lose you money. In tournament play, it doesn't necessarily lose you money because you might can get chips in a less risky way than taking coinflips early for huge pots. If you think this is your best chance to build a stack, then call. If you think you can build a stack by other means, then folding becomes a more viable option.

I really don't think there's a "right" or "wrong" way to play this hand. I won't ever hate any call that anyone makes if they're given proper odds. When the odds are just slightly in someone's favor, I might not like the call as much as folding though. That's all I was saying. Sorry that it got everyone so riled up.

Edit: And I'll edit to say that this idea might be more useful in MTT's where you have more time to accumulate chips than you do in a SNG. Which is why I like folding with a larger stack more. Because a larger stack bides you more time to build a stack without pre-flop pushing.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Auto call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoah... I do not know about that. To be honest I think this is AA or KK alot more than you do. I'll let the call fold debate continue, but this is not an autocall.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you will lose a of of pots that you should have won.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, since we're going with the smart ass responses: No.

[MegaBet]

I don't think anyone's riled up /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Difference of opinions is a GOOD thing in poker. Otherwise everyone would be as good/bad as everyone else. Yes, there are situations where you can fold AK preflop - I'm not saying this is always a call. But in this situation it certainly is. I've said my peace and I'm not going to argue with it further. It's decisions like these that separate the good players from the bad players.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, there are situations where you can fold AK preflop - I'm not saying this is always a call. But in this situation it certainly is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you missed the part of the thread where I changed my mind to "it's a call"... just not for the same reason you said. In my last post or 2, I was talking more in general, less about this specific hand.

[ QUOTE ]
It's decisions like these that separate the good players from the bad players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope I just missed a joke here.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]

I hope I just missed a joke here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, you didn't miss a joke.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

I hope I just missed a joke here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, you didn't miss a joke.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, right or wrong, you're a knob.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

I hope I just missed a joke here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, you didn't miss a joke.

[/ QUOTE ]

So anyone that plays a hand differently than you, they're bad at poker? Um... ok then. And I imagine good players never take different lines on hands.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
First thought: total donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

This can be a very dangerous first thought. I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt until I see two or three moves like this.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

I hope I just missed a joke here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, you didn't miss a joke.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, right or wrong, you're a knob.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very helpful, thanks.

Oh, by the way if we're trading insults, I think you are a REALLY bad player after reading your posts (not just in this thread) - welcome to my ignore list.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

I hope I just missed a joke here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, you didn't miss a joke.

[/ QUOTE ]

So anyone that plays a hand differently than you, they're bad at poker? Um... ok then. And I imagine good players never take different lines on hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said before, I've given my opinion and I'm going to let this thread go. You play as you like. If you don't want to hear advice that differs from your own, I'm really not sure why you're here...

[wiggs73]

Anyone that plays the hand differently than you is bad at poker, but I'm the one that isn't open to other people's opinions?

Believe me, I'm perfectly fine with listening to others' opinions. That is why I'm here. But you really haven't attempted to engage in any debate about my main point, which was avoiding expensive coinflips early in tournaments. About half way through the thread, you started making generalized statements about anyone that disagreed with you.

[bjb23]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First thought: total donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

This can be a very dangerous first thought. I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt until I see two or three moves like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

just curious... when you give him "the benefit of the doubt" here, how does that affect the way you proceed with the hand. does this mean you give him credit for strictly a pocket pair or ak? does giving him the benefit of the doubt sway your decision as to whether he may or may not have AA/KK? just wondering how your read/hand range on villian might change based on whether or not he's a "donk".

[Matt R.]

Maybe he just doesn't want to hear someone say that he's a bad player because his opinion differs. It is quite possible to give advice without being insulting.

And this decision is so close and so read dependent that going one way or the other would not automatically classify someone as a bad player.

Personally, I would call, and it IS due to stack size considerations. Hero is well below the average, but if he had a significant stack and losing here would bust him, I would fold. So, wiggs, I agree with your reasoning, and it's directly related to the math behind ICM. Therefore, you don't suck, at least based on your reasoning behind this play.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
But you really haven't attempted to engage in any debate about my main point, which was avoiding expensive coinflips early in tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your perception that you should always avoid coinflips early on is wrong. Even expensive ones. It all depends on the price you are getting to flip the coin. In this case we are being offered great odds because of the dead money in the pot, making a call +EV. I don't know the exact ICM number because I haven't done the calculations, but I don't see how it could be close enough to make folding correct.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But you really haven't attempted to engage in any debate about my main point, which was avoiding expensive coinflips early in tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your perception that you should always avoid coinflips early on is wrong. Even expensive ones. It all depends on the price you are getting to flip the coin. In this case we are being offered great odds because of the dead money in the pot, making a call +EV. I don't know the exact ICM number because I haven't done the calculations, but I don't see how it could be close enough to make folding correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect description. Maybe I wasn't clear enough in my previous posts, but this is precisiely what I was getting at.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But you really haven't attempted to engage in any debate about my main point, which was avoiding expensive coinflips early in tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your perception that you should always avoid coinflips early on is wrong. Even expensive ones. It all depends on the price you are getting to flip the coin. In this case we are being offered great odds because of the dead money in the pot, making a call +EV. I don't know the exact ICM number because I haven't done the calculations, but I don't see how it could be close enough to make folding correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

I'm not sure I'd call 1.26:1 great, but as the pot odds get larger, so does the favorableness (is that word?) of a call. I guess that point is intuitive, but it's probably still worth mentioning.

Here is an example I thought of...
Let's say that I'm a 40% ITM player and I never take either side of an early coinflip. Now let's say that in the first level of every SNG I play, I raise with AK and get re-raised all-in by another player, who shows me 55 and has me covered. Should I call?

The pot odds will usually point to yes. However, I'm out of the tournament 50% of the time here. That means that of the SNGs I stay in, I'll need to finish ITM 80% of the time to preserve my 40% ITM figure. Can I do this simply by doubling my starting stack early? I think it might actually be close, but I think 80% is a bit too high to obtain. So all-in-all, I think I preserve a better win rate by avoiding early coinflips, even when the odds say I should call.

I'm definitely not a SNG pro by any means, so if anyone thinks that the win rate (win rate = ITM rate I'm assuming) would be > 80% by winning an early coinflip, then say so. It may very well be. Or I'd be interested if others think that the ROI difference would compensate for the ITM fall. But my thinking is that gambling for your stack early isn't a great idea because a +EV situation so early in a tournament doesn't translate directly to +money. In a cash game, it does, which is why I called taking any +EV situation "cash game mentality" earlier in the thread.

[wiggs73]

Just to clarify, I never said that a call wasn't +EV, at least in terms of tournament chips. I do understand that point. My question is whether we should take every +EV situation presented to us.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify, I never said that a call wasn't +EV, at least in terms of tournament chips. I do understand that point. My question is whether we should take every +EV situation presented to us.

[/ QUOTE ]

In an MTT most likely no, unless someone has been raising a lot of pots early in the game. In a 10-person SNG where the blinds rise every 10 hands, yes I do.

[wiggs73]

Fair enough. I'm not sure that you read an earlier edit in which I said:

And I'll edit to say that this idea might be more useful in MTT's where you have more time to accumulate chips than you do in a SNG. Which is why I like folding with a larger stack more. Because a larger stack bides you more time to build a stack without pre-flop pushing.

So yeah... guess we're kinda seeing eye-to-eye on this now.

[llabb]

Thanks to everyone who replied. This is exactly the type of discussion I was hoping for, and I see that it also spawned a new thread regarding the general concept.

The general concept is, in fact, what I wanted to explore, even more than the specific hand, so it wasn't a hijack, the discussion was fine here, no biggie.

Between the two threads, here is a summary of the points I find most applicable:

1) It greatly matters what buy-in you are playing at. In the higher-limits, posters seem to think that most players play a decent/good bubble, so you need to take the small edges early. In the low-limit tourneys, perhaps your greater bubble edge is indeed worth folding here.

2) But as Mongo and Mega said, there's a whole lotta dead money in the example in the OP. So even in the low-limits, this type of thing should perhaps only be folded in level 1, possibly.

3) Stack sizes do matter. Some prefer to call this when <1000 chips, but to fold if you have already doubled up. I can see this idea having merit, since you have more FE when you are a larger stack, and can steal your way to more chips, with less risk. And then, when you finally get into your confrontation, you have a good chance out outstacking the guy and being able to come back even if you lose the showdown.

4) His range is the biggest factor. If you can put him only on a pair, it is a -EV call, as I discuss in a different, but still interesting, example that I posted in this thread. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3508430&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=31&fpart=1) The range of Broadway cards that he will push here is key.


Have I missed anything important in this summary? If so, please let me know. Thanks for the good stuff, guys.


Epilogue: Apparently that pushing range, for a donk in level 2, who thinks the button is stealing, is liberal. I called, he had AJ, and I profitted, b!tch.