weird fold, but can i really be ahead here?

[TStoneMBD]

limper to my right is 60/10/1 after 2k hands. i dont have reads or stats on anyone else in the hand unfortunately.

with all the action on the flop, is it really feasable to believe im ahead at this point? even if i am these people have to have some pretty strong draws so my equity isnt even all that great.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero folds

[B Dids]

BB never defends and raises with a worse King here? Does SB auto bet this flop with less than a King?

If you think you're beat fold, but seems like all the BB has done is said "I have a piece of the flop".

[Catt]

Pot's freaking big by the time it gets to you, but this hand is a reverse implied odds nightmare. You can't be thrilled with any T falling, and you can't be thrilled with the any /images/graemlins/heart.gif falling. A non- /images/graemlins/heart.gif K is about the best you can hope for (maybe a 9 followed by a Q). I really don't mind the fold -- you may be ahead but there's a reasonable chance you're behind already, and your "outs" aren't all that confidence-inspiring.

[einbert]

This is a tough decision, IMO. I know half the forum is going to come along and say "xxxxxxx and it's not even close" but they are wrong.

So this is a flop that might have smacked SB in the face, and it's a flop where you are probably facing strong draws. However, one other factor is that you could very well be ahead of BB. He could be raising here with a wide range of hands. The problem is that if SB has half a brain, he doesn't bet into this field with this size of a pot without a holding that at least hit the flop somehow. If BB realizes this, raising here with any piece of the board seems probably suboptimal. But there's a good chance he won't think that deeply, or he is raising for whatever reason with a strong-huge draw. I'd say there is less of a chance that SB is betting here with something less than a pair of jacks (unless he holds a strong draw). But you are getting quite good pot odds to continue and you do have strong position. The problem is that it is going to get three-bet and then capped a good percentage of the time. The other problem you face is reverse implied odds if you improve to a second best hand, which seems totally feasible or even likely. In addition to these factors, any of the other players in the hand could feasibly hold KQ, which most likely will get to showdown.

Calling here gives you a good chance to get trapped into a huge pot drawing slim or dead, and it also gives you a chance to make mistakes on later streets that could be very costly. You aren't going to be able to figure out where you're at and your effective odds to see the turn aren't really that good (only about 7-1 or less considering the percentage of the time the pot is three-bet or capped behind you). I think it's a fairly close decision but in all folding is correct.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
seems like all the BB has done is said "I have a piece of the flop".

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably correct. But this alone is certainly not enough reason to continue in the hand.

[B Dids]

Yeah- I didn't actually give an action, just some questions to ask.

Absent a read, you could do either. I lean towards raising because I raise too much and like playing top pair in big pots. I also could fold and not hate myself a lot.

[irishpint]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
BB never defends and raises with a worse King here? Does SB auto bet this flop with less than a King?

If you think you're beat fold, but seems like all the BB has done is said "I have a piece of the flop".

[/ QUOTE ]

all mp1 and mp2 did was call 2 each...

i think we have reverse odds here or whatever- staight, flush...and thats if we're ahead now which we dont know. the pot is large, but i think i dump.