My Bad Run -Help Requested

[Olback]

Before I start this is not a post complaining about the variance, just a request for help.

Many people here do not know me that well, but i am experincing my worst run since playing poker. I have played well over 1,000 sngs and over the last 6 months or so (several hundred at least sngs)I have just broken even. Now it could be worse and i am not complaining.

I remember when I first started lurking on 2+2 I read posts by Irie Guy and others on the extremes of variance and never thought they could happen to me. Well now I have and it sucks.

The purpose of this post is to ask a couple of things.

1) Any advice on how to tell you are running badly or just playing badly? Other then the obvious i got my money in with the best of it and lose scenario.

2) Also would anyone be willing to review some of my HH's and/or watch me play and let me know if I am playing badly or it is just variance.

3) Ask that people avoid me when I am playing so i can at least dump the money to the fish! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Thanks in advance

If you don't extensively review your own hand histories after a session of SNGS, I recommend cutting out a few hours of play time to do so.

Check for plays involving middle pairs, overly fancy bets, ignorant ends of straights, responses to minraises, projecting your own knowledge onto opponents and putting your money in on marginal situations for a chunk of your big stack around the bubble.

Besides the basic idea of improving your game, finding leaks and confirming your good plays will boost your confidence and make you feel better about your play.

Eventually, I hear you can reach a zen-like state where you view each bad beat as a butterfly perched upon the sunflower of variance.

[pergesu]

Okay dude here's what I can say.

I've made like three posts like this one. I think most players have made at least one about it. And the responses are always like "Sucks, bro" "It's just variance" "Post hands and see if you're playing bad"

Nothin really helps you figure it out. You just eventually start winning again and don't give a [censored] about what happened to that thread.

[SlackerMcFly]

Tough to say if this is variance, your version of bad luck or perhaps a stagnant style of play that has a few flaws.

Not knowing what buy-in level or site you are playing, I would suggest that you change sites (get a new account on another site).

Something about "newness" forces you to concentrate a little better and pay attention to things that you are maybe taking for granted now.

2CentSlacka

[bearly]

is this more of the same 2+2 nonsense (along w/ 'i've been crushing the 22's for 3k a month') that has a terrible run equated w/ breaking even? don't some of you folks in fantasy land even know how to write the word 'lose'?

[Olback]

I do send time after each sng reviewing my hh's. It defintely helps alot. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[lorinda]

1) Is the hardest. You can sometimes develop a leak gradually that results in things being very wrong, despite nothing in particular looking very wrong.
For instance, are you finding yourself 6-handed 50/100 and pushing 800 with A9s UTG, only to find AK in the blinds or something on a regular basis.

That in itself _might_ be an okay play, but I find that if this is occuring too often, that cutting out the marginal stuff really helps.

Also, a day off is great at fixing short-term leaks that have crept in.

Lori

[helpmeout]

Work harder at your game read more books, analyse your game, swap hand histories.

As well as that you can move down or try a different game for a while (limit, stud, omaha, ring games etc).

Extended downswings/breakeven periods are nearly always a result of bad cards and bad play as a result of bad cards.

[Olback]

Thats hope so /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ace_in_the_hole]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay dude here's what I can say.

I've made like three posts like this one. I think most players have made at least one about it. And the responses are always like "Sucks, bro" "It's just variance" "Post hands and see if you're playing bad"

Nothin really helps you figure it out. You just eventually start winning again and don't give a [censored] about what happened to that thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's so true, I just did this actually. So now I am vowing to never make a bad downswing/breakeven post agiain (unless it is over 1k SnG's long, cause that's notworthy). I have learned that although it can be good for reducing stress, it just clutters up the board.

Since your bad run lasts for such a long time, something has probably changed in your play, in your opponents play, or both. If you think that you should be ITM let’s say 45% of the time, you should make more than break-even (approximated by 33%) 96% of the time in 50 games, and 99% of the time in 100 games. That’s assuming that the probability of being ITM follows a binomial distribution, what seems intuitively OK to me.

Good luck /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[stillbr]

[ QUOTE ]

1) Any advice on how to tell you are running badly or just playing badly? Other then the obvious i got my money in with the best of it and lose scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because you are getting your money in with the best hand doesnt mean you are playing optimaly. Think about what I mean by this. For example, getting all in preflop in the early levels is usually wrong except for a few hands. Also think about situations where your stack size matters very much in the decision.

Just study, read the boards, and the big ones is think about hands you played. Write down important hands during your session, then go back and look at them. You will learn from this and become a better player. If you are breaking even, you are very close to becomeing a good player. A few adjustments and you will be on your way.

[ewing55]

What helps me the most is reviewing my biggest losing hands in PT. You have to go by level, but it still helps.

ie. I know that I'm a great player and I can play KJs in the early levels. I review PT and it says "Hey you idiot, you lose and average of 50+ chips on that hand in level 1." I review each KJ hand to confirm, and yep, I'm an idiot!

It also shows my biggest losing hand in level 1 is KK???? wft???? I review each KK hand and I have radically changed how I play KK. KK is now a winner (over a small sample size) for me...... I hope. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

If you don't have Poker Tracker AND Sit-n-Go Power tools, you're not really serious about this game.

Of course I could be wrong. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

-----------Jeff

PS. I have no relationship with either product other than a satisfied customer.

[Howard Treesong]

I have and do use PT, but what, exactly, are SNG Power Tools? It's probably somewhere else on the board, but given your tout, would you mind giving a short description?

Thanks.

You definitely need to post some "trouble hands" for better feedback.

It also sounds like you are suffering from a lack of confidence.

With aggression being so important in these games, I think that a good player with a lack of confidence will usually perform a lot worse than a not-so-good player with tons of confidence.

So post some hands, get some feedback, and attack the games with a new sense of confidence.

[lorinda]

Check out the classifieds.

That's the fairest way to answer that I think.

Lori

[lorinda]

Hmm, failing that (As I can't find it at a quick look) check out Eastbay's profile /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Lori

Lori - Your example situation about pushing A9s with 50/100 blinds UTG 6 handed seems standard to me. I don't see how cutting out a standard, winning (granted, marginally, winning) hand can improve your play. At least at the 109's, you need to push these small edges mid and late game.

[citanul]

or the FAQ, as i haven't editted that link out yet. though i have to soon.

cit

[lorinda]

Hmm, a bad example, you're right.

I was trying to think of a play where it doesn't matter much what you do. Maybe A5s would be a better one for that example.

(I always forget to factor in that I play incredibly tight compared to almost everyone on the forum.)

The point I was after , and you're right to correct me, is that plays that are more table/read dependent than just ABC poker should be cut down on when you're analysing badly. You can soon rack up some -EV if you outplay yourself.

Lori

....Still not sure I agree about cutting out marginal winning hands and plays. When experiencing a bad run, the best advice, IMHO, is to push through it, if you have the long term advice to back up your play. While I am an advocate of constantly improving your play, a bad run is often do solely to variance. If you look at Zee's, Irie's, or my results (McShove, 109's), terrible runs DO happen, and often not because of bad play. If you think you are making the correct decisons, try not to be concerned if your A5s cutoff push gets called by A8. It's a winning play, and keeping pushing it.

[lorinda]

If you know it's a winning play then you are right for sure.

However, often when running bad, your judgement goes and you are making plays that seem like they are winning plays, but they are not actually.

I can't argue against your point, because I agree with it, but it is only valid, IMO, if you are absolutely sure that your game hasn't been affected by the poor run.

Lori

[The Yugoslavian]

Whatever you do, DON'T play 400 STTs in 4 days after realizing you have a 3 day weekend coming up.

It may sem brilliant at the time. You may even get a huge rush midway through where you see little flashes of neon lights here and there and it looks like your noose is dancing around beckoning you.

However, it still won't be worth it*.

Yugoslav
*Unless you go on a huuuuuuuge rush and make a bajillion bucks...then it would all be worth it.

[pergesu]

I think what lori's saying is that there are some pretty close situations...and you can often misidentify -EV situations as +EV ones. Tough to do when it's way +EV or way -EV, but pretty easy when it's close. Cut down on those marginal ones and you'll make a lot fewer -EV pushes.

Also, the reduction in variance may be worth it to help get your confidence back on track.

[Olback]

Thanks for all the help guys /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I was in the midst of a huge downswing, and what made it stack up exponentially was the lack of confidence that it started, which fed on itself... exponentially.

I found myself folding things that I normally wouldnt, betting smaller than I normally would, damn near TIMID, all because of a string of bad variance. I switched poker rooms, and started concentrating on MTT's. Now that I started playing SNG's again, I find Im better equipped, more confident, and most importantly, I attack the games.

"Fortune favors the bold"

oh, and to the guy who said we live in fantasy land, alot of us do see break-even play as a downswing, since we've built up our bankroll, and after the badbeats, its back to square one.

jeez... sorry for rambling, but I had wanted to post a downswing post myself a while ago, and needed this vent.

[Tuben]

[ QUOTE ]
Many people here do not know me that well, but i am experincing my worst run since playing poker. I have played well over 1,000 sngs and over the last 6 months or so (several hundred at least sngs)I have just broken even. Now it could be worse and i am not complaining.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why play when you are an break even player?
6 month of waste what i think.

I have played like 100 sngs and cash games for 1 week and i have breaking enven so i think that is a waste of time.