Friend's Hand... $25 PLO8

[kurto]

My friend asked me this question. We're learning the game simultaneously. I'll post his question and what my thoughts were. Please let me know if I'm way off...

[ QUOTE ]
I limp in with the following hand: As 2s Jd 10h. The flop comes 9s 7s Qd giving me the nut flush draw and an open ended straight draw. I bet about 3/4 of the pot and get reraised the size of the pot. What now?



[/ QUOTE ]

I told him that the most LIKELY hands that a good player would have that would reraise him was a set or 2 pair with a wrap draw (9-10-J-Q) or a large wrap (8-10-J-K)

I figured... in either case, he still has a very good draw... 8 spades which don't pair the board gives him the nutflush, 6 more outs give him the nut straight. Furthermore (and I don't know what the numbers are... but he's got a decent backdoor low draw)....

My take was that he wants to go on. I said where I was unsure was whether to call the reraise or to push.

Please let me know how he should play this hand and why. Thanks.

[Mendacious]

Your friend is a .42/.58 dog against trips with and inside straight redraw. He is virtually even money against 2 pair with the open straight draw. Your friend is only down 60/40 against QQA2!

That's the good news. The bad news is that obviously your friend has a hand that without improvement will lose to practically anything. Moreover, no one at the $25 tables is going to fold if they just Pot raised, so your friend gets very small fold equity. So depending on what's in the pot, so far, your friend is probably coinflipping for his stack. With $5 in the pot, I think you either fold, or pot back if re-potting will put you or your opponent all-in. Personally I do not call this because I think it is pointless.

You can plug these cards and combinations it to:

twodimes (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/)

[kurto]

Just curious... is this the consensus? I'm not sure I see why this is an autofold. Considering how close this is... don't the pot odds scream for a call? It seems you're at absolute worst - 40/60 underdog... If you take into account the horrible people who I see raising postflop with unimproved pockets Aces and such... he may be even less an underdog then I'm giving him credit for.

thoughts?

[lautzutao]

If I were in position and the pot bet were to me I'd call. But seeing that we aren't and we have no guarantee that our flush draw is being payed off I let this go. Unless you're willing to go down to the river you don't gain anything by seeing what comes on the turn only. If you could get all-in or the villian all-in now then I'd think about it. But I agree with Mendacious on this. Not sure if that's a good thing or not /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Mendacious]

For the record I said fold OR "POT" re-raise. I just don't like a call there. If you hit you want all his money in, and the odds are probably going to be about the same-- to slightly worse for you on the turn as flop, so might as well shove now and get whatever fold equity you might and guarantee the big pot if you win. I don't see getting away from this on the turn, so why call?

[DyessMan89]

Im basically repeating what has already been said ... but, you're basically coin-flipping with most of the hands you are up against here. I mean, even if he has ONLY 2 PAIR, WITH NO OTHER REAL OUTS, you are only a 52-53% favorite. When your hands are this close so often, you only have two choices -- pump up the aggression or get out of the way. I think your move depends on two variables ...

1. Fold Equity. This is the primary concern. If you re-pot him back, are your stacks big enough where he can fold? Or does he have too shallow of a stack where he has to call this. Also, what type of player is he? If hes the type of player who will call you down with anything, this might not be the best spot to play aggressive. Not to mention you dont have the biggest EV in $25 tables.
2. Desire to gamble/Handle of Variance- Might sound stupid, but this should have some effect. Are you afraid of the big bad Variance Man, or are you not in the mood to gamble? If so, get out. If you have a bankroll/mindest that can handle this, then you should be more inclined to re-pot. Im always in the mood to gamble, so you know what Id do.

Given that its a $25 PLO8 table, id put the opponent on something like this ...

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1249520
pokenum -o8 as 2s jd th - qh 9d ac 3d -- 9s 7s qd
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 9s 7s Qd
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 2s Jd Th 381 401 419 0 144 0 0 0.506
Ac 9d 3d Qh 371 419 401 0 48 96 0 0.494

Which is of cource a coin-flip.

[emptyshell]

Brain dead push for me.

[emptyshell]

Yes, I agree with you guys that against most legitimate hands he's 50-50. You don't seem to be considering the times he's up against a lousy straight draw, K-high flush draw, lousy straight draw + mediocre flush draw, etc.

In any case, I think I would check/raise against most players. That will give you more fold equity as you are representing top set.

[Wintermute]

Calling seems like the worst option--being OOP will cause you to either have to fold a brick on the turn (since you're likely well behind at that point) or try to figure out how to get his chips in when you hit, which might prove difficult. Big draws OOP are all about getting the chips in on the flop.

If you happen to get scooped, then just get a normal massage this week instead of the happy ending massage, thereby recouping your $25.

[emptyshell]

Nah, just skip the normal massage and do the happy ending.

[Mendacious]

you are describing my life.

And it is opt for the non-topless happy ending!