$11 how bad is this push?

[DeathbySuckout]

I really felt villian missed the flop, so I took advantage. Bad?

#Game No : 2792650777
***** Hand History for Game 2792650777 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:16159472 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Wednesday, September 28, 22:17:34 EDT 2005
Table Table 11513 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 3: jibs1234 ( $615 )
Seat 4: suited_cards ( $735 )
Seat 6: justgo13 ( $2177 )
Seat 7: BIGGER_NUTZ ( $725 )
Seat 2: wiggs73 ( $685 )
Seat 1: locustreign1 ( $1550 )
Seat 10: Ramsey03 ( $750 )
Seat 8: BlitzEmAll ( $763 )
Trny:16159472 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BIGGER_NUTZ [ 5c 5s ]
Ramsey03 folds.
locustreign1 folds.
wiggs73 folds.
>You have options at Table 11696 Table!.
jibs1234 folds.
suited_cards folds.
justgo13 calls [100].
BIGGER_NUTZ calls [50].
BlitzEmAll checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6c, 6s, 3d ]
BIGGER_NUTZ checks.
BlitzEmAll checks.
justgo13 bets [225].
BIGGER_NUTZ is all-In [625]

[lorinda]

Sadly, this is one of those plays that is good if it is right and bad if it is wrong. It's pretty much that simple.

If you read him right, you've paid attention well through the game so far, and if you read him wrong, then maybe he's better (or worse) than you thought.

Of course sometimes you could be wrong by coincidence, but basically it comes down to the above.

FWIW I don't think the play is bad as such, although against some types of $11 player there's a 100% chance he has AA-QQ.

Lori

[dan123]

QUIT POKER NOW. HE OBVIOUSLY HAS 99.

[swiftrhett]

Remember, at the $11 tables, big bets like that from novices, as Harrington says, generally indicate strength. Pushing here in response to checks is not bad, but yeah, I would say pushing here is -EV. You do gain EV from the times the villian makes that bet with overcards.

[lorinda]

QUIT POKER NOW. HE OBVIOUSLY HAS 99.

Actually he has <font color="white"> Ac Kh </font> but that's not the question.

Lori

[DyessMan89]

[ QUOTE ]
QUIT POKER NOW. HE OBVIOUSLY HAS 99.

Actually he has <font color="white"> Ac Kh </font> but that's not the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

He actually had A /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, but thats not the question.

Anyways, you either push pre-flop, or make a StopNGo on the flop. Or fold. Thats it. Id probobly use the StopNGo myself.

[swiftrhett]

I don't believe a read can help you here at all. Basically any type of $11 player could have: Overcards, 2 pair, trips, and pretty much a wide range of hands.

OK, here is my estimate:
3x (2 pair, matching the 3): 10%
Overcards: 45%
6x (trips): 10%
Overpair: 20%
Underpair: 5%
Everything Else: 10%
---

I know that my estimate is not very accurate, but that's my first guess.

[ QUOTE ]


If you read him right, you've paid attention well through the game so far, and if you read him wrong, then maybe he's better (or worse) than you thought.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

[swiftrhett]

So it looks like I'm estimating 70% of the time, you're the favor, and you have the pot odds as well, so your push may be +EV at the $11's. Seriously, I play a lot of $11's and it is very common for people to place large bets with two overcards in this position.

[DeathbySuckout]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
QUIT POKER NOW. HE OBVIOUSLY HAS 99.

Actually he has <font color="white"> Ac Kh </font> but that's not the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

He actually had A /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, but thats not the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry dude. Never question Lorinda.

BlitzEmAll folds.
justgo13 calls [400].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
justgo13 shows [ Ac, Kh ] a full house, Sixes full of aces.
BIGGER_NUTZ shows [ 5c, 5s ] a full house, Sixes full of fives.
justgo13 wins 1550 chips from the main pot with a full house, Sixes full of aces.
BIGGER_NUTZ finished in eighth place.
&gt;You have options at Table 11801 Table!.
BIGGER_NUTZ has left the table.
The Small Blind left the table. The Dealer button remains in place.
Game #2792656538 starts.

The more I look at it, the more I hate it. I can think of one reason to push, and a bunch of reasons not to.

[swiftrhett]

I can't believe I got suckered into responding to some badbeat post whiner. Hey crybaby, let me spell it out for you:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 6c 6s 3d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 72.1717 % 72.02% 00.15% { 5c5s }
Hand 2: 27.8283 % 27.68% 00.15% { AcKh }

Board: 6c 6s 3d 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 84.0909 % 84.09% 00.00% { 5c5s }
Hand 2: 15.9091 % 15.91% 00.00% { AcKh }


Waaaaahh you lost a bet 2.6 to 1 in your favor. I don't think that's ever happened in poker!!!

[DeathbySuckout]

First of all, I didn't put the results in the OP for this reason. The ONLY reason I posted them at all is to show the other poster Lorinda was right.

SECOND OF ALL, if I thought this was a bad beat, then I would be assuming my play was right, WHICH I'M NOT. In fact I just said I didn't like my push after all.

So I ask, if someone questions a play they made, and they lose the hand, then it's automaticly a bad beat?

[swiftrhett]

I gave you good reasons why your push was +EV, which instead of adressing, you grumbled about your many reasons why pushing is so bad. What is one or maybe a few of those reasons?

And look, it's not like it took Loralinda any incredible psychic talent to know your hand, since she posted the suits with confidence somebody (probably you) already told her. So what are you proving that she can read?

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, I didn't put the results in the OP for this reason. The ONLY reason I posted them at all is to show the other poster Lorinda was right.

SECOND OF ALL, if I thought this was a bad beat, then I would be assuming my play was right, WHICH I'M NOT. In fact I just said I didn't like my push after all.

So I ask, if someone questions a play they made, and they lose the hand, then it's automaticly a bad beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

[raaustge]

Dont understand. You thought the villian missed the flop, which he did, so you pushed having the best hand after the flop and your mad because he drew out on you calling with overs. Your instinct was right and you got unlucky. Its not always if you win or lose. Feel comfort in that you made a great read (or guess) and made the right play on got your money in with the best hand.

[swiftrhett]

Basically, there are a lot of reasons that he hates his move, which he can't discuss. And they have nothing with the fact that he lost this hand. He his immune to the results of this hand, but he knows some secret reason why this hand struck him as a bad play, and wants to know if we know it too. Also, Lorinda is a freaking psychic genius, so step off!

[ QUOTE ]
Dont understand. You thought the villian missed the flop, which he did, so you pushed having the best hand after the flop and your mad because he drew out on you calling with overs. Your instinct was right and you got unlucky. Its not always if you win or lose. Feel comfort in that you made a great read (or guess) and made the right play on got your money in with the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DeathbySuckout]

I appriciate the work you put into helping me with this. I really do. You showed me that I was +EV to push this.

I AM NOT MAD ABOUT LOSING THE HAND. This is not a normal move for me and all that I was tryin to find out is if this was a good spot to take a shot at the pot.

[DeathbySuckout]

HOLY [censored] MORAN!

All you have to do is look up the tourney # and you can see the whole friggin tourney if you want to.

And I would love to explain why I don't like it, but I don't want to come across as crying about it.

Thanks for all of your input.

[lorinda]

Sorry to have got you into trouble DbS.

Anyway, I don't think the raise is bad. The type of player where it is 100% bad in the $11s is the one who never limps and just raises every hand. Those players invariably have AA thru QQ.

Otherwise, with this stack and this position, I think you have every chance of taking a nice pot here that will put you in good standing for the forthcoming bubble.

The way the pot went, you played it right.

Lori

[swiftrhett]

Thanks, I play a lot of $11's, so I feel that my advice is worth something when I say that the villian has overcards a lot of times here.

Also, if you want to call me a moron because you know something I don't, I think I'll remind you that something I know is how to beat the $11's better than you. And then, I will ignore you forever. bye bye.

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
***** Hand History for Game 2792650777 *****

Also, Lorinda is a freaking psychic genius, so step off!



[/ QUOTE ]

I accept full responsibility, DbS had nothing to do with it, sorry /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I believe it's my fault he posted the rest of the hand.

Lori

[DeathbySuckout]

Thanks for your help.

I know I am playing too tight, and I trying to find where to be more aggressive, that's why I pushed this. And I just wasn't sure if it was good.

[swiftrhett]

Well, you were on ignore at least until you made another post /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Since I'm a jerk, I just wanted to bring up that technically folding this hand would be "weak" not "tight". I'm not exactly a whiz with this poker jargon, but astray from the original objective meanings, it appears that people use the term "tight" when it is themselves not betting, but "weak" when it is some other guy. Basically, no one ever admits they are weak, or lose money.

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your help.

I know I am playing too tight, and I trying to find where to be more aggressive, that's why I pushed this. And I just wasn't sure if it was good.

[/ QUOTE ]

[lorinda]

I'm weak and proud of it.

Lori

[swiftrhett]

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif Well, you sure blew that theory out of the water fast.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm weak and proud of it.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]