Exitonly
09-28-2005, 08:36 PM
Alright, while sitting in my horrible english class i decided to write something up about poker and the topic about correct strategy for the early stages of rebuy tournaments comes up often.. so i worke dup some numbers and this isn't to give the answer about which is correct, just maybe some more insight into the question. (or maybe it's all uselses, or not even correct)
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For all the work, i'm using the Stars 45k Guaranteed rebuy tournament as a basis for all my work. Alright here goes nothing:
- Assuming 1500 Entrants, 4000 rebuys, 1000 addons. This is a bit high, but it's the numbers i picked and i didnt feel like going back and changing them. (And this specific tournament has had significantly bigger prizepools than this)
- The following also assumes you are a winning player, 200% ROI. (again,a bit high but this is for winning players)
- When you buyin each chip is worth 1/150. ($10/1500chips) However since you have a 200% ROI, each chip you have has an EV of 3/150, or 0.02
- The above only applies however when you have an average stack.. when you have a less than average stack your ROI isn't quite 200%. However, when you have less than average chips you're still an above average player and if you have say 50% of the average, I said your EV would only drop 40%. So:
When you have 50% of the average stack:
0.02 * 0.6 = 0.012
So each chip is worth 0.012 when you are 50% of average.
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Conversely, when you have an above average stack you will use those extra chips better than the average player, and the more extra chips you ahve, the better you'll be able to use them.. So
with 150% the average stack (10% better than average player)
0.02 * 1.6 = 0.032
with 200% the average stack (20% better)
0.02 * 2.2 = 0.044
with 300% the average stack (50% better)
0.02 * 3.5 = 0.07
and finally
with 400% the average stack (100% better)
0.02 * 5 = 0.1
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So to connect this to the rebuy:
If at the end of the first hour you have
5,000 (the 'minimum', 50% average) each chip is worth $0.012
15,000 (150% average) each chip is worth $0.032
20,000 (200% average) each chip is worth $0.044
30,000 (300% average) each chip is worth $0.07
40,000 (400% average) each chip is worth $0.1
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Alright clearly i made some kind of error here, as your 40,000 is not worth $4000. Well maybe, but no i dont think thats possible.
But the point of this, was that if you can get to 15,000 it would be alright to spend 2.5x as much to get there than you did to get 5,000... or 3.5x to get to 20k, almost up to 10x as much to get 40k.
Alright, this all seems kinda bad now.. but maybe this can create some kind of discussion, and maybe someone that can do some actual math, instead of doodling in my notebook in english class could fix this up.
--
---
For all the work, i'm using the Stars 45k Guaranteed rebuy tournament as a basis for all my work. Alright here goes nothing:
- Assuming 1500 Entrants, 4000 rebuys, 1000 addons. This is a bit high, but it's the numbers i picked and i didnt feel like going back and changing them. (And this specific tournament has had significantly bigger prizepools than this)
- The following also assumes you are a winning player, 200% ROI. (again,a bit high but this is for winning players)
- When you buyin each chip is worth 1/150. ($10/1500chips) However since you have a 200% ROI, each chip you have has an EV of 3/150, or 0.02
- The above only applies however when you have an average stack.. when you have a less than average stack your ROI isn't quite 200%. However, when you have less than average chips you're still an above average player and if you have say 50% of the average, I said your EV would only drop 40%. So:
When you have 50% of the average stack:
0.02 * 0.6 = 0.012
So each chip is worth 0.012 when you are 50% of average.
--
Conversely, when you have an above average stack you will use those extra chips better than the average player, and the more extra chips you ahve, the better you'll be able to use them.. So
with 150% the average stack (10% better than average player)
0.02 * 1.6 = 0.032
with 200% the average stack (20% better)
0.02 * 2.2 = 0.044
with 300% the average stack (50% better)
0.02 * 3.5 = 0.07
and finally
with 400% the average stack (100% better)
0.02 * 5 = 0.1
--
So to connect this to the rebuy:
If at the end of the first hour you have
5,000 (the 'minimum', 50% average) each chip is worth $0.012
15,000 (150% average) each chip is worth $0.032
20,000 (200% average) each chip is worth $0.044
30,000 (300% average) each chip is worth $0.07
40,000 (400% average) each chip is worth $0.1
-----
Alright clearly i made some kind of error here, as your 40,000 is not worth $4000. Well maybe, but no i dont think thats possible.
But the point of this, was that if you can get to 15,000 it would be alright to spend 2.5x as much to get there than you did to get 5,000... or 3.5x to get to 20k, almost up to 10x as much to get 40k.
Alright, this all seems kinda bad now.. but maybe this can create some kind of discussion, and maybe someone that can do some actual math, instead of doodling in my notebook in english class could fix this up.
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