Another Good Opportunity

[YoureToast]

I am no expert handicapper, but I put New Orleans at about 5 or 6 pt favorites over Buffalo. The line is currently PK. This line is crazy and is based, I believe, in large part on the Saints hideous performance last week against the Vikings. They turned the ball over 4 times and had huge penalties. The turnovers were key and the penalties came at significantly bad times. You could argue that this is just a bad team, thus the turnovers and penalties. I don't think the Saints are a good team, but they are a LOT better than they showed on Sunday. They are playing at "home" for the first time and more importantly, are playing possibly one of the worst teams in the league -- a team with who lost their leader on defense for the year (Spikes) and a team that HAS NO leader on offense (aside from Bollinger, I don't think there is a QB worse than Losman).

Saints will beat up on this team this week.

[ThaHero]

I haven't really kept up with the Bills but if Milloy is healthy I'm sure he'll fill the defensive leader role.

Other than that, I think I may agree. Don't forget, though, NO also looked bad against the Giants, although there was a lot going on with that game. And this past weekend they travelled again on a short week. They will probably have time to rest, and hopefully we will see the team that beat Carolina the first week of the season.

[20Five]

The Bills defense is composed of many veteran players, and although TKO will obviously be missed on the field, I dont think his leadership will be too tough to make up for,

Fletcher, Clements, Milloy, Vincent.. all ProBowlers who can easily step into the roll.

[TheRonin]

You are a complete idiot if you think N.O. is even at best a 50/50 team on the season. True things didnt go well for them last week, but week one they were very lucky in beating Carolina, playing on emotion and had 2 huge calls to win that game. Personally I think the Saints may be the worst team in football. Avoid this bet.

[VarlosZ]

What kind of home game is this for the Saints? They're not travelling, but how many fans do they expect, and how many will actually be Saints fans?

I'm not sure that I'd take Buffalo, but I think the line is a lot closer to Pk than Saints -5. I'd probably take Buffalo, actually. Saints are sloppy, and have a bad D. Also on a season-long road trip. That's good enough for me.

[Lurkmaster Flex]

NO can't stop the run, regardless of how many they want to bring into the box. McGahee is going to have a big game, Bills defense will rebound.

[Feltin Licter]

Pick em' seems right to me. gl

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
You are a complete idiot if you think N.O. is even at best a 50/50 team on the season. True things didnt go well for them last week, but week one they were very lucky in beating Carolina, playing on emotion and had 2 huge calls to win that game. Personally I think the Saints may be the worst team in football. Avoid this bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't necessarily think the Saints will win 8 games this year. This bet is more a bet against Buffalo than for the Saints. Buffalo has been overvalued all year IMHO and this line indicates that this is still the case. Buffalo beat what is probably a horrible Houston team in the first week. They followed it up with a poor performance against the Bucs and then failed to do much against the depleted Atlanta defense. I could be wrong about Losman, but I still can't remember seeing a starting QB in this league that is worse than him.

By the way, I'm not so sure starting off your posts with calling someone "a complete idiot" is the best way to make friends on this forum. FWIW.

[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong about Losman, but I still can't remember seeing a starting QB in this league that is worse than him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost all QBs suffer in their first year under center -- Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman come to mind immediately. The Big Ben's of the NFL are few and far between. Losman may be a good QB in time but betting against rookie QBs, especially early in their first seasons, is probably a darn good idea if the line does not reflect their inexperience.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong about Losman, but I still can't remember seeing a starting QB in this league that is worse than him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost all QBs suffer in their first year under center -- Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman come to mind immediately. The Big Ben's of the NFL are few and far between. Losman may be a good QB in time but betting against rookie QBs, especially early in their first seasons, is probably a darn good idea if the line does not reflect their inexperience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Syg, Losman is different. Have you watched him? Here's his problem. He doesn't have a strong arm naturally. He can throw the short passes accurately, but to throw the difficult passes (the long outs, etc.), he actually has to put a hitch in his throw (ala Kerry Collins (who has a hitch on "every" pass)). Thus, he actually throws the ball 2 different ways depending on how hard he has to throw it. As a result of the hitch, his strong passes are incredibly inaccurate. This is not something that will be corrected any time soon. I predict he will be a 2nd or 3rd string QB at best after this year and never be a starter again.

didn't read every word of thread.... but i too see N.O. winning first game on emotion... and then huge letdown, especially now you consider they are out of national spotlight and reality (about everything) is probably setting in. i feel sorry for the players.

buffalo is no great shakes either... what is plus minus here??

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
didn't read every word of thread.... but i too see N.O. winning first game on emotion... and then huge letdown, especially now you consider they are out of national spotlight and reality (about everything) is probably setting in. i feel sorry for the players.

buffalo is no great shakes either... what is plus minus here??

[/ QUOTE ]

The over/under is 39.5 or 40. I like the under, but according to someone I count on for picks, he likes the over. So, I have no strong opinion on that.

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I could be wrong about Losman, but I still can't remember seeing a starting QB in this league that is worse than him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost all QBs suffer in their first year under center -- Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman come to mind immediately. The Big Ben's of the NFL are few and far between. Losman may be a good QB in time but betting against rookie QBs, especially early in their first seasons, is probably a darn good idea if the line does not reflect their inexperience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Syg, Losman is different. Have you watched him? Here's his problem. He doesn't have a strong arm naturally. He can throw the short passes accurately, but to throw the difficult passes (the long outs, etc.), he actually has to put a hitch in his throw (ala Kerry Collins (who has a hitch on "every" pass)). Thus, he actually throws the ball 2 different ways depending on how hard he has to throw it. As a result of the hitch, his strong passes are incredibly inaccurate. This is not something that will be corrected any time soon. I predict he will be a 2nd or 3rd string QB at best after this year and never be a starter again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never saw him at Tulane and don't know anything about his arm strength. I'll take your word for it. As it is, the question is merely whether lines reflects Losman's current ability -- if they don't, betting against him is probably a pretty smart angle.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
I am no expert handicapper, but I put New Orleans at about 5 or 6 pt favorites over Buffalo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take Buffalo +5 against you. I'm a noob at this, but I'll put down $10. PM me for details.

[mosuavea]

Losman has looked bad so far this year but I am willing to bet that Mularkey is willing to pull the trigger on Holcomb if needed very soon.

Also, where is all this stuff about an unnaturally strong throwing arm coming from? Any scounting report read about the guy says he has a very strong arm that can make any throw on the field.

[TheRonin]

Sorry toast, was hammer trashed last night.. my bad.. but in any case the Saints play football about as good as I would have last night. I just think they got that week 1 win on some crucial panther mistakes and emotion. I think they may win about 5 games on the year and I dont think this will be one of them. IMO.. (but the way the season is going they'll probably end up in the superbowl)

[YoureToast]

No harm no foul.
I hope you are wrong, however.