TT in BB

[TheJackal]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero (t16279)</font>
UTG (t26572)
UTG+1 (t23283)
MP1 (t15953)
MP2 (t73123)
CO (t68200)
<font color="#C00000">Button (t30816)</font>
<font color="#C00000">SB (t9890)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t4000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t9815</font>

Hero? Button is Saturnlia, range pretty wide I think. SB is short, he could interpret Saturnlia as stealing on the button and his range is pretty wide as well.

[bweiser8311962]

It's either push or fold and I push. He can't fold, but I think all you're looking at is A/rag.

[Roman]

u pushed and ran into a hand **yawn**

[TheJackal]

Someone answer me this question, if I push in this spot, what are Saturnalia's pot odds? (I'm serious btw).

[bweiser8311962]

His pot odds will be about 4:1. There will be about 29K in the pot and he has to call about 7K more. I think he'll call you with any two cards honestly.

[TheJackal]

[ QUOTE ]
His pot odds will be about 4:1. There will be about 29K in the pot and he has to call about 7K more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok tell me if I'm right about this (I'm neither good or bad at math).

16k(my stack)+10k(SB)+4k(initial raise)=30k, 12k back to him (16k my bet)-(4k his bet) = 12k to win 30k or about 2.5:1. Tell me if I'm wrong.

[DyessMan89]

Fold, not close.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, not close.

[/ QUOTE ]i think its close

[TomHimself]

i havent really looked at the pot odds but they dont look as big as 4:1 more like 2-2.5:1 like jackal said

[TheJackal]

Is my pot odds analysis right? Saturnalia seems to think he was getting 3.5:1 on his call, his quote, "So I have to bet 12k to win a 42k pot". Ok I guess, but the reason it reaches 42k is because you put the 12k you stand to win (or lose) in the pot to make it 42k. Am I wrong or is he?

[TheJackal]

I pushed he called, SB had A6, saturn had KQ. The flop came rags, he hit a king on the turn and queen on the river and IGHN. I called him lucky, he took offense, he made the right play, but he wasn't getting 4:1 on his call.

[fnurt]

He's betting the 12k to win 30k. If there is $1 in the pot and I bet a million dollars to try and win it, I am risking a million dollars to win $1. I am not risking a million dollars to win $1,000,001.

His odds are 2.5:1. Iffy call for him, since he needs to beat 2 hands. His odds are probably around 30% if he's not dominated and much lower if he is, and he needs 28%, so it's pretty sketchy. Your push, I think, is clear.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Push, not close. If Saturnalia is calling with all his button open-raising hands (I'm pretty sure he shouldn't, he's getting 2.5-1 but he has to beat two people) you're clearly making a killing by pushing. (I assume he has a fairly wide raising range on the button). I think it's also fair to say you have the SB's range beaten pretty badly. I really don't know what else to say...push. I guess Pokerstove numbers might help:

SB range: AA-77, AK-AT, KQs-KJs, KQo. That is ridiculously tight, there are few people who would have ranges that tight. You're still a 53-47 favourite vs. the small blind in the worst case scenario. (This is for the main pot only.)

Now, if we want to assume that button calls with all his raising hands, he's probably got a range somewhere around AA-55, AKs-A2s, AK-A7o, KQ-KT, QJ-QT, JT. Again, this range is pretty tight and this is probably worse than the his real range. Against this, you're a 60-40 favourite.

So now, assuming button calls, 40% of the time you're out. Of the other 60%, 53% of the time you win both pots ~42k and 47% of the time you end up with 12k.
So ChipEV = .6*.53*42k +.6*.47*12k
ChipEV = 16740

So, I guess if both are ridiculously tight(particularly the SB) it's basically break-even and you can fold. Otherwise push.

Steve

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero (t16279)</font>
UTG (t26572)
UTG+1 (t23283)
MP1 (t15953)
MP2 (t73123)
CO (t68200)
<font color="#C00000">Button (t30816)</font>
<font color="#C00000">SB (t9890)</font>

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t4000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t9815</font>

Hero? Button is Saturnlia, range pretty wide I think. SB is short, he could interpret Saturnlia as stealing on the button and his range is pretty wide as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Push. Hope button folds. I think this is pretty standard for me. SB's range is pretty big with 8 BBs, you could easily have him beat. Button will probably fold. I dont think I can find a fold here with 10s, tho it's probably fairly close, I'd fold 8s here, 9s is really really tough for me.

[bweiser8311962]

I apologize for my mistake earlier in calculating the pot odds. I misread the ? and gave the odds for the small blind.