Making the right call when you know it's wrong

[bweiser8311962]

9 people left in a speed tournament

Blinds are 600/1200

UTG goes all-in for 2300ish
Folded around to the SB who has slightly less than 30K and is the big stack. Jerk folds.

I am the BB with about 3500. I look at 2/4o. I am getting about 4:1 to call and with two overs I am a 2:1 dog. So I complain that I wish the SB/big stack had made the crying call, before I grudgingly make the call.

Only the top six cashed.

I was correct and UTG had A/rag unsuited.

I lost the hand and proceeded to finish 9th, mainly because in the next hand when I should have folded my way into the money, I pushed with 6c/10c from the small blind when it was folded to me and the BB had QQ.

So I was getting the right odds to make that call out of the BB and made the right call, but I still believe it was wrong. Too many of my chips and on the bubble.

Thoughts?

[gobboboy]

I still think you should go for it. Odds are good for a reason, and if you take him out you're likely finishing better than 8th because of your increased stack. You may have actual fold equity when you start stealing, and unless there's a huge money gap I have to advocate a call.

[Shorty35]

[ QUOTE ]
I still think you should go for it. Odds are good for a reason, and if you take him out you're likely finishing better than 8th because of your increased stack. You may have actual fold equity when you start stealing, and unless there's a huge money gap I have to advocate a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is good advice (aasuming standard payouts). Making calls like this is painful and profitable.

[DyessMan89]

4-1 odds on your money, dont expect you to be worse than 2-1, Im making this call. Also, you currently have no FE, and very slight chance of finishing much higher, winning this pot will improve both those aspects.

[odiggity]

no u dont make this call. 2/3 2/4. these cards r horrible and u can get away from the odds with these hands. u could of folded. folded the next crap(though u probably would of tried a steal with the 6/10 suited and gone broke anyway) and looked for a better spot.

[nath]

In the future don't let yourself get this short. Your M is less than 2 BEFORE posting-- you needed to make *at least* one move that orbit before your blind came up so
-you'd still have a little something after the blinds passed (if you folded them)
-you'd have enough chips to have folding equity and be in a spot where a double-up gives you a much more reasonable stack.

I would make this call too after some thinking but I would do this call without thinking if I was the SB here. He is getting 2.4-1 in odds and it's not a big deal if he lose since well, he will still have around 28-29k...

Anyway I'd call this too. If I win, that's nice since I get some new chips to play around with. If I lose, well I was in bad shape before and tried to get some while I had the odds so atleast I did what I could.

I once called with 5-4os in this exact situation and the raiser showed me 5-3os bursting out in a "OMG you have better cards than me". This was live so it was pretty damn funny /images/graemlins/smile.gif

made the same play earlier today in a tourney, guy had same high card, lower kicker... I felt proud.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
no u dont make this call. 2/3 2/4. these cards r horrible and u can get away from the odds with these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand your last statement. The whole point of the odds is that they aren't subjective. If you're getting 4 to 1 odds to call and you are overall about a 2.5 to 1 dog, you are taking a favorable gamble.

[ QUOTE ]
folded the next crap(though u probably would of tried a steal with the 6/10 suited and gone broke anyway) and looked for a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have enough chips to do that. The blinds eat up half his stack, and any subsequent move (with only 1700 chips at 600/1200) will surely be called by at least one player.

[DonHansen]

My two cents:

1. You had an M-value of 2.6 before this hand with an effective M of 2.3 if the table was 9-handed. (M is your stack divided on BB+SB, on this occation 4700/1800=2.6. The M-value tells how many rounds you can survive before the blinds gobble up your stack.) You should've pushed with any two decent cards long before your M got this low with the hopes of doubling up.

2. The call is technically correct. I still would'nt call with 4/2o though. Even if you hit your six-outer your're most likely behind, you'll probably need two pair or trips to pull it off with rags like that.

Push earlier next time.


D.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I lost the hand and proceeded to finish 9th, mainly because in the next hand when I should have folded my way into the money, I pushed with 6c/10c from the small blind when it was folded to me and the BB had QQ.


[/ QUOTE ]

You had to make this push too. You had 2xBB in the SB and T6s in not bad against an average hand. Too bad the average hand turned out to be QQ.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
In the future don't let yourself get this short. Your M is less than 2 BEFORE posting-- you needed to make *at least* one move that orbit before your blind came up so
-you'd still have a little something after the blinds passed (if you folded them)
-you'd have enough chips to have folding equity and be in a spot where a double-up gives you a much more reasonable stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

He probably should have, but this is a speed tournament and everyone gets short stacked quickly. Most people don't play aggressively enough in these. However, it is hard to tell what he should have done without seeing the last 10 hand histories.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
He probably should have, but this is a speed tournament and everyone gets short stacked quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I totally skipped over that part. (Man, I haven't played a speed tournament in a while. I guess the thrill of bubbling out after shoving in mediocre aces repeatedly doesn't appeal to me anymore.)

All the same, once M < 5 you must look for situations to push.

[ QUOTE ]
However, it is hard to tell what he should have done without seeing the last 10 hand histories.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes-- there must have been something in that last orbit that he could have pushed. Hell, even if he's UTG and the dealer accidentally exposed one of his cards and forgot to deal him another one... at least he's first in.