99 With two overs/up and downer what do I do?

Pokerroom $14+1 SnG Satellite to Grand Tournament IV
Seven Players Left
Table is very aggressive - first two entrants were out in the first two hands
Blinds at $50/$100
Relevant Stacks:
Hero - $1700
Villain ~$3000
Hero Picks up 9s9c in 2nd position, raises to $350
Villain Calls in 3rd Position
Button Calls, Rest of the Table Folds (Pot: $1200)

Flop:
10 7 Q Rainbow

Hero Bets $450
Villain Calls $450
Button Folds (Pot: $2100)

Turn: J

Hero Bets $400
Villain raises to $900, putting Hero all-in
Hero Folds.

Okay ~ My bet on the flop was a Probe Bet, to see if I could take down the pot right away, or gladly fold to raise. When the Villain called, I was thrown off. AQ? QJ? AK? My bet on the turn I feel was my big mistake. I feel like if I was going to bet I might as well have pushed. Based on what I did, do I call with 10 outs, saying he doesnt alright have a big straight? Should I have checked the turn? Should I just have checked the flop? How does the J change my situation?

Whats the best way to play this tricky hand?

[Jeebus]

ten outs with 5-1 on your money. Sounds like your priced in. But thats only if your ten outs are actually outs.

anybody else? bueller? bueller?

[MyTurn2Raise]

post this in 1-table tournaments....those guys deal with these situations all the time and will give good responses hopefully.

This is how you should play it -

1) bet $500 pre-flop (instead of $350)

After the Flop (1 caller this time) you are now able to match the size of the pot with your remaining chips.

Did you realize that you will end up being pot committed with this hand anyway?

The way you bet it (preflop ^$pot, flop ^$1/3pot) - so even before the Turn your stack could only match about 1/2 the pot$.

By betting a little more pre-flop you will increase the chances of getting the pot heads up. This will also give your stack a fighting chance.

2) On the flop (now hopefully vs. 1) you only have 3 options: - (ALL-IN), (CHECK-RAISE ALL-IN). or (CHECK+FOLD). NO PROBE bets!!!

It is a HUGE mistake to play around here with "probe" bets. Sometimes the best information is free. How a player responds to a check can reveal a lot about their hand. Players in a hand MUST respond (check,call,raise) to whatever the current situation is, and that response can always reveal something . When you "probe" bet, all you have done is CHANGE THE SITUATION that the player has to respond to. Sometimes you can actually get MORE information by observing how they respond to the "probe" check!

Another problem with a 1/3 pot "probe" bet on the flop is that since you raised in early position - the other players are going to ask themselves: With what could you raise in early position that BOTH hits a [rainbow QT7] AND would lead out and bet it!?

Hmmmmmmmmmmm. I will assume that you are not the type of player that would put out a "bait" bet, and if you where - the other players would be aware of it and see it for what it was. If you get called in that situation (like what actually happened), and you only have 99, then your hand has been reduced to fish fry.

So - what would THEY THINK you might have here?

AQ - nope (you would cr=check raise)
KQs - nope (cr)
KJs - nope (pflimp? +cr)
QQ - nope (too strong to spoil it, would just check)
TT - nope cr
77 - nope cr
AA - nope cr

Maybe KK,JJ,99 would make a "baby" bet - if you are a weak player. Better players would be check+raising (best) with these hands as well here, or just moving all-in. The rainbow flop actually hurts you here, as an all-in would be more credible in that case.

AK - maybe, but again I think check is best (3 way pot)
AJs - same

Any good player acting behind you could confidently answer your "probe" bet here by putting in a big re-raise. He could be fairly certain that you did not hit that flop,(putting you on a misplayed AK, or AJs as your most likely hands) and you would probably have to fold.

Versus good competition it is VERY likely that you would have ended up being SHAFTED WITH YOUR OWN PROBE bet.

Once this hand gets to the Turn it is pretty much hopeless.

Even the long shot - trying to represent AK giving you the nut straight is probably not going to get Villain to lay down a hand that already has your 99 beat. He wont believe it anyway since if he really thought you had AK, then he would have RERAISED earlier on the Flop instead of just calling.

Your best play from the Turn is to go into check/fold mode.

Hopefully the J will provide you some scare cover, it gets checked all the way, and you will get to actually see the hand that Villain beats you with. As it was - you bet the Turn and got reraised, thereby losing $450 more and not even getting to see what he had.

Your eventual fold was probably correct, but the loss of that pot will seriously cripple your chances of winning the tourn. When deciding whether to call - I would factor in the bleakness of your chip position after the fold. It would not be unreasonable to call here assuming that you are probably beat either way. Partial justification for the call is that you will need a string of miracles for you to pull off a win vs 7 players after that fold.

It would not be hopeless, but it don't look good.