Fights This Weekend 9/30 - 10/1

[Tuds75]

This weekend is loaded with quality fights and some great betting opportunities. The lines were just posted an hour or so ago, so I havn't been able to analyze them, but let the disscussion begin.

Here are some of the fights.
- Antonio Tarver v. Roy Jones Jr.
- Jame Toney v. Dominick Guinn
- Chris Byrd v. Darryl Williamson
- Kid Diamond v. Nate Campbell
- Glen Johson v. George Khalid Jones (Friday Night)
- Brian Minto v. Vincent Maddalone
- Larry Donald v. Nikolay Valuev (Valuev is 7ft tall and 325 lb)
- Lance Whitaker v. Gabe Brown

And No Ander Ward line, yet, and Raquel Marquez's fight was postponed until Nov. What a great, exciting weekend.

Tuds

[20Five]

Hey Tuds,

Been waiting for the creation of this thread.. Had an eye on the last couple you guys have been involved in and seem to do quite well.. best of luck to you this weekend!

-20 /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[ThaHero]

Can't wait to hear your analysis Tuds!

For the RJJ-Tarver fight. I'm a BIG RJJ fan, but I think I like Tarver. He just always seems so hungry to me. And we all know he's great when he fights a fighter the 2nd time. The same should hold true when he fights an opponent the 3rd time.

Looking back on it...Tarver probably beat RJJ twice. Yeah, he might have won the first one. I gotta go back and watch it(dunno where I'd watch it though). Some people say the second was a lucky punch, but it really doesn't matter, cause it knocked RJJ out. If RJJs chin is done with, I think Tarver knocks him out again.

I saw the HBO special on the 3rd fight. I think it was Larry Merchant or Manny Steward that said he's seen fighters that take two very dangerous knockouts very close together, and from that point on seem to not be able to take a punch. And he thinks it happened to RJJ now with the Tarver and Johnson fights.

RJJ does have a lot to prove though, and probably wants to cement his legacy once and for all. We all know he's determined and very proud. But does he have the physical ability anymore? It always seemed effortless with Roy, but lately it hasn't been. If he allows himself to get punched on like he did in Tarver 1 and against Johnson, he'll be KOed. If he comes out swinging and moving like he did in Tarver 2, he might get caught with another counterpunch.

I'm a HUGE RJJ fan, and I wanna believe he can win this one. I just don't know...

Also, I am familiar with a few of the other fighters, but not their opponents. I'd like a little info from ya Tuds. Me and my bro picked Kid Diamond in I think his last fight, and he just got robbed imo. But I think he's a very good fighter.

[Tuds75]

I did some research, still not done, but here is what I'm thinking so far:

Glen Johnson v. George Khalid Jones:
I absolutley lover the OVER 10.5 rds on this fight. I can't belive the over is Even to +125. This just like the Peter/Sykes UNDER in July. Seems too good to be true. By faving Jones at +400 means the odds makers think Glen is going to KO Jones. The thing is Glen Johnson is not a knockout kinda guy. I think the public thinks he is a bigger puncher then he is because he KO'ed RJJ and RJJ is on everyone's mind due to his fight saturday. In Glen's last 10 fights (all at lightheavy) he has 2 KO's. The first was against Thomas Ulrich in 2001 (his 1st at LHW, so maybe an easy test) and the other being Jones. In that time he has fought some good fighter, Tarver, Woods, Harding, and Julio Gonzalez. He was able to take everything Tarver threw at him for 12 rounds and never even really looked hurt or dazed. George Jones is a big tough fighter. He has fought his entire career at Lightheavy. In his two loses one was by KO to Eric Harding (how beat Tarver and even knocked him down) so a big puncher. In Jone's last 10 fight 3 have not gone the distance and was stopped in the first on an accidental 'butt. Both fighters are strong well built fighters who have shown they can take a punch. Not to mention both guys are sorta friends outside the ring and we know what happens when friends fight, see Rahman/Barrett.

Tuds

[partygirluk]

Where are you getting your lines from, and is there any way to sign up to this site and get a bonus or rakeback type thingy?

[Jozepha]

I think Jones can win this. If he stays busy and keeps the fight in the center of the ring.

[llabb]

I just got the over at +118 on Pinnacle. First-time deposit available, no re-deposit bonuses that I know of. Some of the best lines around, though, which makes up for it. It's sort of like juiceback, off the top.

[Indiana]

Prolly the most exciting moneymaking weekend in a while. Ive got the G. Johnson over and the Tarver str8 bet very heavy at this point. I dont think the price is hot enough for the Tony over right now.

Indy

[partygirluk]

Where can you bet on the G. Johnson over?

[Indiana]

sportsbook.com

[ThaHero]

Bodog absolutely sucks for boxing. They never have any fights.

I liked pinnacle but they want too much of your money back when you withdraw. Never tried sportsbook. I need to increase my sports bankroll so I can spread my money around to these different sites.

[DropGems]

On BetonSports the max I could put on the over was $1000. What's up with this BS limit? Do all the sites do this?

[jedinite]

You have to call BOS for larger bets than their posted limits.

[Tuds75]

I got an upset pick:

Dominck Guinn over Jame Toney. Guinn had/had the potential to be a top heavy, but motivation has held him back. Well this is his last chance if he wants to make anything of his career. I read an interview here he knew this is final chance basically in boxing, a loss and he is gone from the scene, but a win is HUGE. All of a sudden he becomes a contender. He will be right back int he HW picture.
James Toney is FAT. 235. That is 70 pounds more then he used to fight at. The weight, age, fight load (over 70 fights), and constant injuries is going to catch-up with him eventually. I think Tonight is the night. He has talked about being nervous for this fight, nerves like in his first few fights. Not a good sign for James.
Now to the Action:
Toney is a counter-puncher. He waits for his opponets to give him an opening and he throws. Guinn is a long fighter who can jab and throw large amounts of punches FROM A DISTANCE. The distance Guinn keeps on his punches will dictate how the fights goes. Toney's poor condition will tire him in the later rounds, not to mention constant peppered shot to his head and body. He runs outta gas late and Guinn gaining confidence round by round controls the mid and late round for an surprisingly easy UD.

Guinn went from +375 to +300 on SB.com so the money is coming in on him.

tuds

[CCx]

I took action on Guinn based on your analysis - I don't have Showtime though to watch it - is there anywhere online can I keep up with boxing results round by round, or via audio?

[llabb]

+375 on WSEX, +371 on Pinnacle, and +350 on Intertops if you want better odds.

[llabb]

For the Johnson-Jones fight, did anyone get a win on the over 10.5?

I bet it on Pinnacle, and they gave me a loss.

From the report I read, "Johnson threw two more rights, then motioned referee Marcos Rosales to step in and halt the bout, which he did with 30 seconds left in the 10th."

I assume that means the fight stopped after 2:30 in the 10th, which is over halfway in the 10th. Is this correct? Anyone know what the deal is here? I am e-mailing Pinnacle now.

[Indiana]

10.5 over means it has to go 11 rounds to get paid.

Indy

[llabb]

Ah. So it has to go 10 full rounds, plus an additional half-round in the 11th? So not over the 10.5th round, but over the 11.5th round. That sucks.

[DropGems]

Same thing happened to me. Sucks. ha

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
Ah. So it has to go 10 full rounds, plus an additional half-round in the 11th? So not over the 10.5th round, but over the 11.5th round. That sucks.

[/ QUOTE ] it is over the 10.5th round - its exactly like it should be.

You're betting over ten and a half rounds. Ten rounds are complete only when the bell for the END of the tenth round hits, and then the extra half would be 1:30 in to the 11th round. So 10.5 means ten full rounds and half of another (half of the eleventh). So if the fight was stopped with a few seconds left in the tenth round, the fight would have paid over 9.5 but under 10.

Its perfectly logical if you think about it - if you told your buddy that the fight would last more than two rounds, you'd win if it went 3+ but lose in 1-2. Two and a half (2.5) would be the first two rounds plus the half of the third... /etc

[youtalkfunny]

If the fight didn't last 10 full rounds, then over 10½ can't possibly be good. Hell, it didn't even go 10, let alone 10½.