Controlling pot odds in PL/NL games

[StLouisMike]

According to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker you gain when your opponent makes a play different from that if he knew what you were holding. In NL/PL games you can control the odds you give your opponents. So is it the correct play to make a bet that goes against a drawing hand yet one that is not large enough to shut someone out of the pot? Example say we have two kings against an opponent we are sure to be drawing to a flush on the turn in holdem. Pot size is $100 and our opponent checks to us. The flush comes 1 in 4 for our opponent and will only call/bet if he makes his flush on the river. Do we bet the $30-$40 which gives him bad odds for his flush or do we shut him out of the pot with something like $75 to $100? How big of a role does implied odds play in this? Thanks for the replies in advance.

Mike

[UATrewqaz]

Exactly, you don't bet so much he sees plainly see he doesn't have the right odds toc all, you bet enough to give him bad odds but it still looks attractive to him. The fishier the opponent dictates how much you can bet and still have him call.

This also relies on your ability to put an opponent on a hand so you know what he's drawing to.

The flush draw with one card to come has a 20% chance of making. That is 1 in 5 not 1 in 4 as you stated. This gives him drawing odds of 4:1 to compare with his pot odds. A 30$ bet into the 100$ pot gives him pot odds of 130/30 = 4.3:1 , which makes his call correct. The 40$ bet gives him 3.5:1 pot odds. Unless he assumes that you won't pay him off at least 20$ on the river, then he will make this 40$ call based on implied odds or even a rounding error in his pot odds calclulation. If you decide that you don't want him to continue, then you should at least bet the pot giving him 2:1 pot odds for his 4:1 draw. If you bet 100$ here, then he needs you to call another 200$ on the river for his implied odds to justify the call.
Note: Remember that 4:1 drawing odds is not the same as a 1 in 4 draw. 4:1 drawing odds means that 4 times you lose and 1 time you win.

[New York Jet]

With the info you've provided, you should bet half the pot.
I think it is a little more complicated situation than you provided. Is it the nut flush draw? If so, he has an overcard. Any chance he already has a pair? If so, he has 14 outs opposed to 9.
I guess what I am saying is that I would normally bet around 2/3 the pot in your situation. Overbetting the pot a little might lose a caller, while underbetting the pot may lose the pot.

[StLouisMike]

The real question is in theory do you bet enough to give your opponent bad odds on a draw yet sweet enough to entice him to call? The example was only to give you some kind of an idea of what I was asking. This question is based around the Fundamental Theorem of Poker and the ideas presented by Dan Harrington's HOH1 ("making good bets at favorable odds"). The reason I ask this question is I do not understand the idea of giving your opponent a chance to take off a large pot from you because you tried to extract the maximum amount from his drawing hand. If my math was wrong I apologize but, the example was just that an example. Also does implied odds change this concept of making good bets at favorable pot odds?

Mike

[pzhon]

The real problem is that you don't know exactly what hand your opponent has, so you are likely to pay something on the river, but if you bet a large amount, you expose too much money to the possibility of a set. Meanwhile, your opponent could have a made hand, too, or nothing at all. Since he doesn't know exactly what you have, he might pay off a substantial bet with few outs, and he might bluff or make a bad value bet/raise if you check or bet a small amount.

Trying to figure out exactly how much to bet if you are 100% sure he has 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif and he is 100% sure you have K/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is not helpful.

The answer is yes. Implied odds should weigh in on your decision of how much to bet. If you only give him slightly poor pot odds to call to his draw, then you only have to pay him off very little when he makes his hand for his implied odds to make his call correct.
In your example, if you had bet 50$ into the 100$ pot, then this would give him 3:1 pot odds, making his 4:1 drawing hand an incorrect call. However, if he believes that you will pay him off an additional 50$ when he makes his hand, then he is really getting 4:1 implied odds which makes his call correct. You're bet should be affected by how much you think he'll bet if he makes his hand and how much you are willing to pay him off. I liked what one person said about betting 3/4 of the pot into the flush draw. This way his implied odds suck because you aren't going to pay him off enough but he might still call(which is what I think you were trying to sucker him into doing).