Pair and missed FD - River play?

[ep510]

Villian is 35/13/0.9 over 20 hands.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Button calls, Hero completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, MP2 folds.

Turn: (8.00 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.00 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero?

[Pog0]

Can't see what he could hold that you beat except 7x which is unlikely given his line, but given his stats, it's possible he has no clue. With that little info (20 hands) I curse and call. If the ten didn't pair on board, I would be more hesitant.

3-bet the flop? Add BB and MP2 to your buddy list.

[Jake (The Snake)]

I'd rather checkraise the flop. At this point your hand is a monster and you will probably end up winning the hand &gt;50% of the time. I want to get a lot of money in on the flop and tie people to the pot. Betting out will often cause BB to raise and then you lose the others who you want to help pad for you. Think about your relative position to the PFR.

I think you can fold the river. 98 just caught you and since you have diamonds it's less likely villain was drawing to a flush.

[W. Deranged]

Flop check-raise is pretty sweet here. Perfect relative position to the pre-flop raiser. Nice opportunity to build a huge pot.

I think that pot-building is better than trying to protect the weak pair of sevens here, because we have so many outs to improve to lock or near lock hands.

[Argus]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I'd rather checkraise the flop. At this point your hand is a monster and you will probably end up winning the hand &gt;50% of the time. I want to get a lot of money in on the flop and tie people to the pot. Betting out will often cause BB to raise and then you lose the others who you want to help pad for you. Think about your relative position to the PFR.

I think you can fold the river. 98 just caught you and since you have diamonds it's less likely villain was drawing to a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
This analysis is spot on. You have a monster draw and the PFR is very likely to make a continuation bet. You want as many players as possible to put as many bets in as possible. You simply aren't in a position to protect your hand, so ram and jam. If PFR raises your flop bet then chances are he's ahead and the field is faced with two cold. If he smooth calls you may be ahead, but everyone else is likely getting odds to draw and you miss an opportunity to put more bets in the pot.

Definitely fold the river. What hands in villain's range does play this way and then bet that you beat? I have a hard time imagining him raising 66 in a four way field. He might be on a straight draw, but that came in. The only hand you're beating is a missed flush draw, and I don't think that's what he has even 9% of the time.