what affects roi the most?

[stupidsucker]

Trying to find holes and such, I asked myself... where should I start?

[citanul]

wow, this is actually very hard
i think the hardest one for most people is the middle game, as it's much less formulaic than most people's mid and late game, though many people play either 3 or 2 handed terribly.

in short: it depends. there are styles of early play which elad to late play being different than other styles, for instance. no?

citanul

I would choose an option you dont have on there... bere it is, and I bet you'll agree with me

short-stacked play.
oh, and in second place
splashing around in too many pots.

[Freudian]

Pushing followed by relentless valuebetting early on.

[GtrHtr]

none of the above but mostly ITM play if I had to pick. I definitely say HU play. If you look at most of the stats posted on the forum by successful players, all around 38%ITM or so, the ones with even distribution between 1st and 2d have the edge on ROI.

I figured it was middle play. If your middle play is solid, you can build your stack and position yourself to finish strong and fight it out for first. many times, when it gets down to 5 people, they tighten up. if you can be a bit more aggressive/opportunistic, you can steal some blinds and build up a stack. If you tighten up, your stack slowly fades as you wait out the shortstacks, often crippling you once you hit the money. Ya 3rd is great because it pays, but lets face it, no one is satisfied with anything but first.

[pooh74]

I was actually going to start a thread on this subject.

For me, personally, meaning its a highly subjective question, it would have to be early play. That affects everything after it and there is much more to come after early play than there is after late bubble play obviously.

I became such a good bubble player that I got an inflated ego and thought I was therefore a great poker player...well, im not, I suck. But, my strength is definetely late big and short stack play. The problem is when I am playing too many pots early and end up at level 5 with a shortie, forcing me to play the "bubble" with 6-7 left.

In a SNG, you're post flop "greatness" is not getting you anywhere early...limping everytime you get 78s just because "I can get away from it" is still dumb. yeah, on the button with 3 limpers its great. But early game discipline is key to my swings because I tend to always overestimate my implied odds. "was this a good push" is almost never question I ask, I instead ask, "why am I <10bbs at level 4.

ROI is going to balance over time on your late game pushing (given you understand basic bubble strategy)...its what you get there with that really affects its level.

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]
What affects roi the most (long term)

[/ QUOTE ]

Half-assed ISP. THis is not a joke.

[nyc999]

I chose middle play. For me personally, I know that I tend to tighten up when I build up a stack of 1200 - 1800 instead of using it to my advantage.

Maybe I should call "mid-big stack" play as my primary weakness. This leads to a lot of 2nds and 3rds.

[raptor517]

this poll is VERY level dependent. in the 11s-33s, obviously it is playing a good bubble and short handed/big blinds game. in the 55s its a combination of things, as more people know how to plya a bubble. i say it comes down to lvl 3 4 and 5 play. in the 109s and 215s, its all about the early and middle games. everyone knows how to at least play a decent bubble, therefore your edge comes in the early stages. holla

okay, someone point me to a friggin faq, or lets make a thread, discussing protection of a big stack (from an early double up) without getting splashy.

I get the big stack, I start playing a lil bit looser, and all of the sudden, my beautiful 1800 chips becomes my nice but kinda dinky 1347 chips.

[Degen]

i think what is implied is that 1 and 2 are bubble play and HU play

[MegaBet]

I'd say it's the pushes late in the game. When the blinds are high, what you push and what people call with is the difference between if you place and where you place...which is, after all, where your ROI comes from.

[stupidsucker]

I got better response from this then I expected...

A lot of great ideas have come out of it and I would like to research it further. Raptor makes a very good point about the skill level being directly relative to earlier play being more important.

Might I suggest we narrow this down a little further. I missed an obvious one, Bubble play. I would not includ such things as Big stack play or short stack play because they dont happen in every SnG you play, but I am open to ideas.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say it's the pushes late in the game. When the blinds are high, what you push and what people call with is the difference between if you place and where you place...which is, after all, where your ROI comes from.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, but learning that is easy (relatively). Its effect over 1 SNG is enormous, granted, but if you choose your pushes and calls wisely, then over time, this should be a nuetral variable for good players.

Raptor's point is a good one. For instance, thinking about his reponse and mine, I think early game looseness is where I get into trouble (and even when I'm leaking like a whore I still do ok). At the lower levels though, exploiting the bubble is where your ROI is made, which contradicts what I say, yes, but if I always know good bubble play (which I think I do), then my ROI goes up or down from somehting else, meaning early-mid game play.

[ebaudry]

"Quote:
What affects roi the most (long term)
Reply Quote:
Half-assed ISP. THis is not a joke. "

Dude, you are not alone. I have lost at best guess $150-200 over 800 tournaments due to my &^$#%^\-ing internet connection. As I look at moving, a new ISP is seriously one the things I am most excited about.

Getting timed out then blinded to death on Lvl 6 on 2 tables at once is enough to make anyone crazy.

[lorinda]

Someone pulled me recently on assuming it was always bubble play.

At the limits you play, it's bubble play.

Lori

[MegaBet]

You can play perfect 4-5 handed SNG strategy and still either get sucked out on by a dumb call or walk into a monster. This is single-handedly the biggest factor in my ROI, even considering the long term effects.

[lorinda]

Having just read Raptor's reply, you might as well read it again and ignore mine.

Lori

[Degen]

lol dude

do you not see that bubble play effects ROI more than anything else? at least up to the 33's...

second is definately heads up play, without a doubt


i also agree with what rap said about the early play being key at the 109's...as most of them play the bubble g00t

[Degen]

and how about all the times that you push trash and get there?

in the long run, this evens out and you cannot factor suckouts or bad luck into ROI at all...if we are discussing the 'true roi' which of coarse is only theoretical anyway

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
You can play perfect 4-5 handed SNG strategy and still either get sucked out on by a dumb call or walk into a monster. This is single-handedly the biggest factor in my ROI, even considering the long term effects.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're saying that "perfect 4-5 handed strategy" is affected by things out of your control, then you are right...of course it is, thats why no one has a ROI of 100% or more. If you play perfect late game, then, by definition, there is nothing you could do differently there to affect your ROI. Therefore you have to look elsewhere in your game. Not to get caught up on semantics, but I think this is an important distinction.

[lorinda]

While we're being accurate. I believe that the bubble play always has the greatest impact on your ROI. The implied assumption is that in the $100s+ that everyone can do it, so you have to gain ROI from somewhere else.

If someone is losing a lot of money in the $100s, then their bubble play is probably the first place they should look.

Lori

[Nicholasp27]

the answer is bubble play

no matter the level

'what affects roi the most' = bubble play

now, at the 100/200s, 'what is the biggest difference in the roi between player a and b' = early play because most of the players play a good bubble...but if they play the bubble badly, their roi will drop much more than if they play poorly early on...so while early play may separate the good from the great, proper bubble play has the biggest single factor on roi, no matter the limit

I think pushes are what sticks out in your mind because that is where the money is determined. But, late game pushes are really a product of previous play. If you play a strong game and have a lot of chips, it gives you options. But, if you play poorly and find yourself short on chips, your hands are forced late. So, your poor play early forced your hand down the road. so, I would say late game pushes are more a product of your earlier decisions...good early decisions keep you from having to push late which can reduce your chances of being busted by a suck out. but I'm new at this...

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
While we're being accurate. I believe that the bubble play always has the greatest impact on your ROI. The implied assumption is that in the $100s+ that everyone can do it, so you have to gain ROI from somewhere else.

If someone is losing a lot of money in the $100s, then their bubble play is probably the first place they should look.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, the easy answer is always going to be "bubble play". But that is obvious and boring...In my game, it is almost always a propensity for being loose early that affects my ROI, bc my late game SHOULD be consistent by now.

EDIT: by "consistent" I mean "inconsistent"

With the confidence displayed by the 2+2'ers, lets just cut to the chase, THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN ROI IS LUCK BY EVERYONE ELSE BUT US. If it werent for luck, our ROI would be about 455%!

[Big Limpin']

I voted for call, as it is relevant throughout the tournament.

And I am not necessarily thinking of calling a preflop push at 200-400. "Calls" can refer to any hand, of multiple streets, where my hand is good and i know it, yet a villain has taken the initiative and seems intent on building a pot.

Calls are ubiquitous enough; at 10-15, or 50-100, or bubble, or enging the HU match, i think greater ROI gains come from playing this part well than any of the other options (stages).

[Ogre]

Pushes and late play

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
While we're being accurate. I believe that the bubble play always has the greatest impact on your ROI. The implied assumption is that in the $100s+ that everyone can do it, so you have to gain ROI from somewhere else.

If someone is losing a lot of money in the $100s, then their bubble play is probably the first place they should look.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok we are getting to where I want to be exactly here.

I had always assumed that bubble play was it, but recently in a long bad streak I started feeling otherwise. I have been doing so poorly in my middle play that I assumed that is where my rio was swinging on. Maybe it is, but only on the luck level.

Anyways...Lori
When you say "bubble" , you do mean exactly 4handed right?

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyways...Lori
When you say "bubble" , you do mean exactly 4handed right?


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, excuse my inaccuracy again. Even though that's what it means, I should have clarified that I mean "When the blinds are large and we are not yet in the money" which would usually be 4 handed but sometimes 5-7 handed too.

Lori

[stupidsucker]

ah, so late play. Level 7+ish?

I wasnt sure, because the term bubble is loosely used an awful lot.(I too am guilty). I thought perhaps you meant litteral bubble then, and that does change things a bit.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
ah, so late play. Level 7+ish?

I wasnt sure, because the term bubble is loosely used an awful lot.(I too am guilty). I thought perhaps you meant litteral bubble then, and that does change things a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, # of players left is not important per se, its the blind to stack ratio where money is made.

I voted calls. In 55's I see people calling allins on the bubble with stuff like 22. That's gonna cost em huge.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
the answer is bubble play

no matter the level

'what affects roi the most' = bubble play

now, at the 100/200s, 'what is the biggest difference in the roi between player a and b' = early play because most of the players play a good bubble...but if they play the bubble badly, their roi will drop much more than if they play poorly early on...so while early play may separate the good from the great, proper bubble play has the biggest single factor on roi, no matter the limit

[/ QUOTE ]

[MrX]

[ QUOTE ]
You can play perfect 4-5 handed SNG strategy and still either get sucked out on by a dumb call or walk into a monster. This is single-handedly the biggest factor in my ROI, even considering the long term effects.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what causes ROI to have a theoretical maximum. I hope you understand the fallacies in your statement though.

X

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can play perfect 4-5 handed SNG strategy and still either get sucked out on by a dumb call or walk into a monster. This is single-handedly the biggest factor in my ROI, even considering the long term effects.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what causes ROI to have a theoretical maximum. I hope you understand the fallacies in your statement though.

X

[/ QUOTE ]

do you mean, "this is what causes ROI to have a theoretical maximum in NL party SNGs"??

in other words, I don't even understand why ROI would have a theoretical maximum other than 500% (ie taking 1st every time). for example in a SNG with a longer structure - say the party SNG structure but everyone starts with 2000T - you would obviously expect the ROI for very good players to increase. This makes me think that it is the degree of mistakes made by your opponents, and the degree of mistakes afforded by the tournament structure, that impose a theoretical limit on ROI.

If an expert is playing against 9 typical 10+1 players in a tournament that starts with 10000000T, I would expect his ROI to approach 500%. this in spite of the fact that he will "still either get sucked out on by a dumb call or walk into a monster".

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
the answer is bubble play

no matter the level

'what affects roi the most' = bubble play

now, at the 100/200s, 'what is the biggest difference in the roi between player a and b' = early play because most of the players play a good bubble...but if they play the bubble badly, their roi will drop much more than if they play poorly early on...so while early play may separate the good from the great, proper bubble play has the biggest single factor on roi, no matter the limit

[/ QUOTE ]

Negative. The biggest impact to EV occurs in bubble (or post bubble) play, since on every hand EV changes significantly. Note: I would have to do some math before I could say that bubble, however we are defining it, decisions impact EV more than post bubble.

The biggest impact to ROI will be where you gain the most EV, which necessarily takes into account the comparative advantage one has over the field and the importance of the decision in terms of EV.

Let me give a contrived example to illustrate this. Say there is a population of STT players who will fold everything to a push pre flop until the blinds are 50/100 becuase they refuse to go out when the blinds are so low. They are so adamant about this, they will even fold AA in the BB if the SB open pushes.

Say these same players all play optimally from the the 50/100 level on.

A player who pushes every hand until the 50/100 level will gain ALL of his ROI from the first levels, since he has at best no comparative advantage in the late game.

This shows, I am pretty sure, that it is theoretically possible to have the early levels impact ROI the most.

Now, if you have a good size advantage over the field in the early levels, and a small advantage on the bubble, the bubble will most likely have a greater impact on ROI.

Also, it is theoretically possible to have a bubble disadvantage and still have a positive ROI if your pre and/or post bubble advantage is big enough.

[fnord_too]

Oh, and since there is no real answer (it depends, yada yada yada), I voted for what I thought was closest: calls. The biggest mistakes are made in calling IMO, but also to be successful one has to make good calls. Pushing, unless you are dealing with (or are) an utter moron, will usually not be too big a mistake ever. (Things that get one into the moron category are making really huge overbet bluffs or bets that will only be called by a better hand while not folding any worse ones, bluffing when someone is obviously pot committed and certain to have you beat, etc. When you have FE, and you are not massively overbetting the pot, pushing may be a mistake, but rarely will it be a big one.)

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
lol dude

do you not see that bubble play effects ROI more than anything else? at least up to the 33's...

second is definately heads up play, without a doubt


i also agree with what rap said about the early play being key at the 109's...as most of them play the bubble g00t

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point, but after thinking about this more today, I still have to say HU. Bubble play is hugely important for both staying alive and moving ITM and gaining chips to improve finishes. But in many ways that will also simply effect your ITM%.

The one significant thing that effects ROI - the actual calculation we use to identify how much $$ we are making is HU play due to the large difference between 1st place money and 2d or for that matter 3d.

[wickss]

[ QUOTE ]
in other words, I don't even understand why ROI would have a theoretical maximum other than 500% (ie taking 1st every time).

[/ QUOTE ]

355%

[Nicholasp27]

all of his roi won't be from earlier

say all of those players that do this are 15% roi players

now if one of them suddenly forgets how to play correctly on the bubble, their roi will drop to -9%...


roi is affected the most by bubble play, not early level play...but the difference in a good and a great player is not bubble play...but the difference in good and great player's roi may be 10%...the difference in good and bad player's roi (if bad player isn't bad early levels but SUCKS at bubble) can be 20+%

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
now if one of them suddenly forgets how to play correctly on the bubble, their roi will drop to -9%...

[/ QUOTE ]

this is utterly completely wrong. holla

[Nicholasp27]

i'm assuming this is an average player who only excels in bubble play, but is absolutely average in every other way

so if they become average in bubble play, then they become an average player, who should see -9% (lose the rake) over the long run

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm assuming this is an average player who only excels in bubble play, but is absolutely average in every other way

so if they become average in bubble play, then they become an average player, who should see -9% (lose the rake) over the long run

[/ QUOTE ]

if every other player is a 15% roi player the person who is merely an avg player that doesnt have bubble skills anymore will be much worse off than -9%. holla

[Nicholasp27]

oh, i see

u are working within the contrived example that had a population of players

i was meaning that a player who is great on bubble but average in earlier play could put up 15% roi...but if his bubble play is average it's -9%

but that's within the general population

[Nicholasp27]

and that he'll be even worse off within fnord's example just shows even more how bubble play affects roi

if we say that 215ers are, in general, better at the bubble, then the loss of good bubble skills for a player would drop them down more than the loss of good bubble skills for a player in lower levels

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
oh, i see

u are working within the contrived example that had a population of players

i was meaning that a player who is great on bubble but average in earlier play could put up 15% roi...but if his bubble play is average it's -9%

but that's within the general population

[/ QUOTE ]

the whole 15% roi thing by perfect bubble play.. is not possible unless u have perfect itm play as well.. even at the 22s. holla

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
all of his roi won't be from earlier

say all of those players that do this are 15% roi players

now if one of them suddenly forgets how to play correctly on the bubble, their roi will drop to -9%...


roi is affected the most by bubble play, not early level play...but the difference in a good and a great player is not bubble play...but the difference in good and great player's roi may be 10%...the difference in good and bad player's roi (if bad player isn't bad early levels but SUCKS at bubble) can be 20+%

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the conditions stated in my post, all ROI above the normal average (negative) ROI is from early play (assuming he plays perfectly post the 50/100 level). You may argue that perfect play is impossible in practice, and that mistakes are more costly on the bubble, but I picked a contrived set of assumptions that are theoretically possible to avoid this sort of side tracking.

If you have exactly zero comparative advantage at a level, that level contributes exactly zero to your expectation (and therefore ROI).

I am not arguing that if you play inoptimally, fixing leaks in bubble/post bubble play will have the greatest impact on your ROI. However, if all your opposition plays these levels optimally, the only place to make money is in the earlier rounds (and then only if they do not play these levels optimally).

What is optimal with bigger stacks is highly debatable. What is optimal with small stacks based on optimal play by opposition is a tractable game theory problem, so facing fields that play optimally or close to it in short stack situations is not so far fetched, and I agree with raptor and others that your ROI can come mainly from early level play when your opposition plays very well later, as many say is the case in the 200's.

[stupidsucker]

I find it extremly amusing that the majority of people chose middle play, but there is hardly any argument for it in the meat of this thread.

I chose it, because it seemed to be getting me the most. The bubble is easy to play with a stack imo, and getting a stack is the hard part. knowing when to push during level 4-5 seems so very very key to me, because the pushes/calls are not nearly as B&W when the blinds become higher. Perhaps I am finding that level 4-5 are just hard for me.

[Uppercut]

[ QUOTE ]
okay, someone point me to a friggin faq, or lets make a thread, discussing protection of a big stack (from an early double up) without getting splashy.

I get the big stack, I start playing a lil bit looser, and all of the sudden, my beautiful 1800 chips becomes my nice but kinda dinky 1347 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doubling up early has no effect on my hand selection in levels 1-3. I don't care if I fold 20 straight hands; I still have a nice chip stack. And when I do get agressive later on, my raises tend to be respected.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it extremly amusing that the majority of people chose middle play, but there is hardly any argument for it in the meat of this thread.

I chose it, because it seemed to be getting me the most. The bubble is easy to play with a stack imo, and getting a stack is the hard part. knowing when to push during level 4-5 seems so very very key to me, because the pushes/calls are not nearly as B&W when the blinds become higher. Perhaps I am finding that level 4-5 are just hard for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted for middle play though I play the $20s and really I suppose push/call play matters most in absolute terms at this level. however...a lot of push/call play is just math with only a little bit of reading mixed in, so it's relatively easy to become pretty good at it. in the middle levels OTOH, you're playing somewhat marginal hands more agressively than you would in the early game, but often without the luxury of just pushing preflop. so you're playing big pots postflop with much weaker (on average) hands than in the early going. also, you often find yourself in situations where you don't have a hand at all, but the pot has gotten big enough that it's too weak to just give it up regardless of the action. so reading bets really becomes important to maximizing EV at those levels. this requires practice and attention.
in short, i voted 'middle-game' because
1, i think someone who's already a winner at the low limits can best improve his ROI at those levels by focusing on his mid-game play and
2, i think it's harder to improve at mid-game play than at push/call and
3, it's the stage that's least amenable to auto-pilot play at the low limits.