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View Full Version : pot odds and knowing when to call or raise


flipflop1970
09-27-2005, 11:48 AM
Here is the scenerio,

You are sitting in a 10-20 limit game, you are UTG and you limp with 98s. The flop comes As,Qc,4s. The pot has 5 bets in it since there were 3 callers (you, MP caller, and both blinds).
Now the SB checks and the BB bets. (5 bets in pot).

I know the the odds you will hit your hand by the river is 1.9-1. The odds you will actually hit your card on just the turn would be 4.2-1. Now if the Turn doesn't come with your flush card you now have the odds of 4.1-1 on the river card.

so my question is, when calling the turn card which odds do you use to determine if you have the correct odds to call?

09-27-2005, 12:47 PM
That depends a bit on the size of the pot, and your opponents.
If you can get action on a raise after you hit, obviously, you're looking at a better payoff (implied odds).
If you can get them to fold if you raise on a King, Jack, or Ten, you're looking at better odds (also implied odds).
Let's assume that you're comfortable raising even if Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif hits, and that the flush is good.
Then you're looking at 9:36 (1:4) to make the hand on the turn, since the pot is 5 bets, you can safely call 1 raise. If it's raised twice to you, you'll still bet getting odds to call (your call will represent 2 of 10 in the pot if MP folds) based on just the river card - and from there you can call to the cap just on the turn card.

In practice, you'll expect to call on the turn if the pot is larger than 3 BB since that will give you pot odds. So heads-up, you'll get 1:2 (1 in 3) on a 4-flush flop call as long as there were 4 small bets in the pot before the raise/bet.

Practically speaking, if you're comitted to see the hand through to the river, you're getting the full odds on the flop call, but if you're liable to get pushed out on the turn bet, you're only getting turn odds.

This does lead to things, such as semi-bluff check-raises for a free card as an option, since you're getting better equity on your money on the flop, and you can see the river card for less (remember the bet after the turn is twice as large), and you might even have some folding equity.