KK check raised on ace river [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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thesharpie

09-27-2005, 10:45 AM

Villain is 70/6/0.7, bet low pair on the flop multiway, led into a preflop raiser on his left with MPMK. Haven't really seen him overplay stuff by raising on expensive streets, he did once raise a turn stop and go with less than TPTK and took a free showdown... Couldn't see what he had Crypto dun allow it. Just worried he's raising a pair of tens or some pocket pair since he now has a full house. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Cryptologic £3.00/£6.00 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 folds.

River: (6.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero folds

ReadyEddie

09-27-2005, 10:55 AM

I like the river bet. Fold looks good.

09-27-2005, 11:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 70/6/0.7, bet low pair on the flop multiway, led into a preflop raiser on his left with MPMK. Haven't really seen him overplay stuff by raising on expensive streets, he did once raise a turn stop and go with less than TPTK and took a free showdown... Couldn't see what he had Crypto dun allow it. Just worried he's raising a pair of tens or some pocket pair since he now has a full house. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Cryptologic £3.00/£6.00 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 folds.

River: (6.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)

SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero folds

[/ QUOTE ]
Based on how the villain played this hand here is my range of his holdings: Quad 4's, fours full of Aces, Tens full, broken flush, total BS. You are getting 9.5-1 to find out. If you think your opponent is bluffing more than 9.5% of the time than you must call. The kind of questions you need to ask yourself is...is the villain capable of check raise bluffing on the river. This is important since all you really have right now is a bluff catcher. I know many people who have never checkraised the river on a bluff their whole lives, but online I see this play enough to be suspicious if im in your situation. Another thing to keep in mind is how youve played your recent hands at that table. Have you recently folded the turn or river to a checkraise or even the flop? If so this factor would make you lean more towards a call. Online there is also a chance your opponent couldve misclicked and be raising on accident, I dont know the probability of this, but this factor should not be ignored. So my conclusion is if the probability of a checkraise bluff + misclick is greater than 9.5% than you should call. By the way, I like your river bet, aggressive and profitable, and I think I would call in this situation with no read, but its very close and I dont think you made a bad fold by any means. I would be much more likely to fold in this situation in a live game, but online, people are more aggressive and less afraid to make a move, and they can always misclick.

ReadyEddie

09-27-2005, 11:48 AM

(sidenote 9.5:1 = 10.5%)

I dont agree. Looking at villains low aggression factor i dont think he's the type to c/r this but other reads would help, like W$@SD. Also, more importantly, hero has shown aggresion the whole hand and could very well have an A hand. This would be a retarded spot for even a moron to try to river c/r bluff.

I also think "missclicks" should be completely ignored on all analysis on 2+2.

Mister Z

09-27-2005, 01:32 PM

I think a little too much credit is being given to these stats. Those stats tell me he's a bad player and may think his TT is rock and roll or even his 77. Not often will our hand be good, but folding this 10BB pot for 1 BB against a true donk is a mistake IMO.

The Goober

09-27-2005, 02:29 PM

Yeah, I think its close, but I'd call without a real strong read. A lot of bad players overplay boats when there are trips on board. For some reason, they feel like having JT is stronger here than it would be if the board was just T-high rags (even with the A coming).

09-27-2005, 02:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(sidenote 9.5:1 = 10.5%)

I dont agree. Looking at villains low aggression factor i dont think he's the type to c/r this but other reads would help, like W$@SD. Also, more importantly, hero has shown aggresion the whole hand and could very well have an A hand. This would be a retarded spot for even a moron to try to river c/r bluff.

I also think "missclicks" should be completely ignored on all analysis on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]
9.5-1 = 1/10.5 = 9.5% Someone please correct me if my math is wrong here. About the missclick thing. When you are making a decision online or at the poker table, no variable should be ignored. This is a very important concept that you must understand, any apparently trivial factor that can help you make a better decision at a critical moment is something that should never ever be ignored.

Fat Nicky

09-27-2005, 02:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
About the missclick thing. When you are making a decision online or at the poker table, no variable should be ignored.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is ridiculous...i can't imagine saying "hey, i'll call because he might have wanted to fold, but clicked raise by accident"

09-27-2005, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
About the missclick thing. When you are making a decision online or at the poker table, no variable should be ignored.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is ridiculous...i can't imagine saying "hey, i'll call because he might have wanted to fold, but clicked raise by accident"

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course its ridiculous!! What I'm trying to get across here is that if you dont factor the "ridiculous" into your decision making process at the poker tables or online then your decisions will be less than optimal. This is not an arguable point. If you dont understand this, just keep rereading this post until you get it.

Fat Nicky

09-27-2005, 03:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
About the missclick thing. When you are making a decision online or at the poker table, no variable should be ignored.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is ridiculous...i can't imagine saying "hey, i'll call because he might have wanted to fold, but clicked raise by accident"

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course its ridiculous!! What I'm trying to get across here is that if you dont factor the "ridiculous" into your decision making process at the poker tables or online then your decisions will be less than optimal. This is not an arguable point. If you dont understand this, just keep rereading this post until you get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

ummmmmmmmmmmmm....ok

mtdoak

09-27-2005, 03:15 PM

Horrible fold. You don't think he's bluffing 1 out of 9 here? Even passive players can 'represent' a big hand. Call it down.

W. Deranged

09-27-2005, 03:28 PM

This is pretty damn close either way... villain has shown enough irregularity so far that I'd probably call it down.

We should note the river check-raise is kind of strange. Even donks will often simply bet out when they hit an A on the river, because it is such an obvious card and they don't want to risk a check behind. Check-raising here seems hardly like the standard play with either an A or a 4. And this is the sort of call that is very valuable in helping to form reads on future hands.

So I'm calling here. I'm not happy about it, though.

09-27-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Horrible fold. You don't think he's bluffing 1 out of 9 here? Even passive players can 'represent' a big hand. Call it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is exactly what I am thinking.

I agree that it looks likely that you have lost, but not so likely that I would be willing to fold.

Nick C

09-27-2005, 03:34 PM

Trying to figure out when my opponent may be bluffing by accident can be a challenge. It's really hard to know how any individual bad player is going to react to, say, a monotone flop or (as in the posted hand) trips on the board.

In the posted hand, I think I'd sometimes fold and sometimes call. I'm not really sure what's best.

09-27-2005, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Trying to figure out when my opponent may be bluffing by accident can be a challenge. It's really hard to know how any individual bad player is going to react to, say, a monotone flop or (as in the posted hand) trips on the board.

In the posted hand, I think I'd sometimes fold and sometimes call. I'm not really sure what's best.

[/ QUOTE ]
Making any decision haphazardly can never be correct. If you dont know which decision is correct than make the decision that costs you the least when your wrong and makes you the most when your right. In this situation if you didnt know what to do on the river than you should call, since calling only cost you 1bb when your wrong and when your right you win the whole pot. But if you decided to fold instead you would make 1bb when youre right and lose the whole pot when your wrong, as you can see to make a fold on this river you better have a very good read since a mistake would be catastrophic.

thesharpie

09-27-2005, 03:54 PM

Dude are you a table coach or something? If it's so close that you're not sure calling or folding is best it makes no difference which decision you make.

09-27-2005, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dude are you a table coach or something? If it's so close that you're not sure calling or folding is best it makes no difference which decision you make.

[/ QUOTE ]
No im simply a guy at work who has nothing better to do than post on this awesome website. And in a way we are all coaching every time we make a response to someone elses post. And I understand what you are saying, but you are missing a key point to my last post. When a decision is close but you dont know which route to take you should always chose the decision that minimizes your mistake. In this case calling is superior to folding if a person is unsure of the correct action simply becuz calling costs 1BB when the hero is wrong and folding cost the whole pot when the hero is wrong. Mike Caro taught me this concept, and I think it is very important.

paperboyNC

09-27-2005, 04:04 PM

first rule of small-stakes limit hold'em is not to fold in a big pot on the river if there is a chance you're good.

Don't bet if you're folding to a check-raise. If he does raise, you have to call.

hellite

09-27-2005, 04:05 PM

Only the biggest fish in the world would use the excuse that their opponent misclicked the wrong button to induce themself to call a bet. Aside from tryiong to figure out bluffs, semi-bluffs, hand ranges and odds I just really do not have time to figure out if my opponent wears underwear or not. It really makes zero difference. Wishful thinking that provides no help whatsoever in these types of analyses. Maybe OP misclicked the fold button on the river, that would be much better than if he actually meant to fold. CALL

thesharpie

09-27-2005, 04:08 PM

If the pot is 10BB and you're calling off 1BB on the river and you're unsure whether calling or folding is best, all you can go by is that 1 time you pay 1BB to win 10BB and 10 times you lose 10BB so it makes no difference. In fact folding would probably decrease variance since you're only getting your money back 1 in 11 times.

09-27-2005, 04:21 PM

If its me I need to know what he has just for future hands. I may check the river and just show down, but if I did bet the river there is no way I can't call the raise. Otherwise I've paid many BB's for no info and no win, so for only one more BB at the very least I'm getting info and at best I'm getting info and a big pot.

private joker

09-27-2005, 07:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he's a bad player and may think his TT is rock and roll or even his 77. Not often will our hand be good, but folding this 10BB pot for 1 BB against a true donk is a mistake IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh... his TT *is* rock and roll. It beats us. There's definitely a donk involved here, but it's not the OP...