How often does this line mean a strong hand?

[cartman]

I always get absolutely owned when my opponent takes this line. Villain rarely folds and likes to raise the turn.

PREFLOP: 1 limper to Hero in the BB.

FLOP: Hero flops middle pair decent kicker.

TURN: an overcard to the flop.

Hero checks to get to the showdown affordably because a raise is very likely. Villain checks.

RIVER: blank.

Hero bets and #@!!@##@&&*%^ Villain raises. Hero?

If a raise is likely on the turn, but villain having you beat isn't that likely, there is still great equity in a turn bet.

I would b/c the turn and check the river.

Considering the turn was checked and you bet the river in this scenario, I wouldn't like a b/f line to a river blank. Call him.

BTW....it looks like hero didn't raise preflop, but what was the flop action? Check, check?

[stigmata]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain raises. Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this?

http://myspace-980.vo.llnwd.net/00155/08/93/155453980_l.gif

I hate this situation too. I'm not sure what people think of just check-calling again? After all, what are we value betting against? Bottom pair or ace high. Maybe carrying on with inducing a bluff is the best play.

Off topic, but do you have any idea of where I can get that animation for use as my AIM buddy icon?

[cartman]

Oops. I forgot the flop action. Hero bets, Villain calls.

Cartman

[cartman]

He wasn't so likely to raise with something worse that I welcomed a raise. I thought betting and getting raised would make me very uneasy and I also thought there was a very high likelihood he would bet the turn if checked to regardless of his hand.

Cartman

I'm definitely more inclined to continue on the turn despite his high raise %. I believe villain would have bet the turn with either of the top pairs. He probably feels his (likely) turn move won't be as effective without your bet, so he wants to wait until the river and try it there whether you bet or not.

One thing that bothers me the most in this spot is when villain shows down a hand that outkicks you. His accidental value bet makes him look like a world class player.

[helpmeout]

check/call the river

He will value bet most pairs and throw out a few bluffs.

[MicroBob]

i'm thinking more along this logic too I think.


But if you do bet the river you need to probably call the raise.

From HIS perspective:
you checked the scare-card on the turn,
THEN you bet the river which he thinks is just B.S. so he raises with his nothing.
This is one possibility anyway.

The raise doesn't have to mean you are beat.
What the hell did he have that was so great to slow-play the turn with??


I'm thinking that inducing river bets by lesser hands (missed flush-draw or something perhaps) while also possibly getting it checked-through vs. hands that you lose to makes checking the river possibly something to consider (at least some of the time).


example: he has QT or 77 on board of 36QK2 vs your J6 perhaps.
Might he check it through on the river?

If he has T9 or something might he take a shot at it if you check?

First: It's opponent dependent.

Second: You should be betting the turn a fair bit here.

Third: It's critical to consider the size of the pot, which, in the situation you describe, is miniscule, which means that he's got to be bluffing an awful lot of the time to make a call correct, which means you fold.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
He wasn't so likely to raise with something worse that I welcomed a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

What % do you estimate he is bluff raising? I normally bet the turn here.

[Victor]

why not bet the flop?

[The Truth]

[ QUOTE ]
why not bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

He did.

I check the river to an aggro player.

I bet the river vs a passive player.


Turn check is something you gotta do sometimes, so no real comment there.


-blake

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]

What % do you estimate he is bluff raising? I normally bet the turn here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I correct to assume you guys usually call down when you get raised in this spot?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Surfbullet]

I find that these raises are usually a weird draw that hit, and only occasionally a bluff, not enough to call IMHO and show a profit. In this case I'd check the river as well - he won't often check behind the turn with a calling hand because he'd want to bet and take the free showdown... sometimes you'll miss a bet from A-hi but more often you'll pick off a bluff from a terrible hand that would never have considered calling.

Surf

[cartman]

Do any of you guys bet the turn and fold to a raise or are you committed to show this down when you bet the turn?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Surfbullet]

If I bet the turn I'll usually fold to a raise, unless experince has shown that villain's turn raises mean little. The get-to-showdown line is the one you took, checking the turn expecting many worse hands to bet at it when you appear to have given up.

Surf

[wheelz]

i think the answer to the question is "a large majority of the time." i've donated many a BB along the way finding this answer.

when i stab at a flop and get called i nearly always fire again on the turn, so i bet the turn here almost always. whether to call down if raised all depends.

[Subfallen]

Here's my line in this situation. I ask myself, "Is villain either (A) an idiot, (B) on monkey tilt, or (C) neither?"

If the answer is A or B, I call. As for C...well, if I'm not tilting myself, I fold.

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
Do any of you guys bet the turn and fold to a raise or are you committed to show this down when you bet the turn?


[/ QUOTE ]

I almost always bet the turn. Call the raise if I think I have outs/odds, but usually fold. Calling turn raises at 5/10 and below makes it difficult to not call that last river bet, partly because it induces a bluff on the river, and partly because I want to know what kind of hands he raises the turn with...
So you are going to pay 2 more bets to showdown a hand you are not all that thrilled about, or fold the river feeling like you just got a prostate exam...
So, I embrace my weak/tight side and fold to a turn raise, then go read some of Tommy A's posts in mid-high to make myself feel better.
Besides I ALWAYS get shown a better hand calling down the average LPP types in these spots...