$55: Do you push with 1 limper at 300 blinds?

[llabb]

Raises, pushes, and folds I know what to do with. But I'm still adjusting how to deal with limpers when the blinds are huge. What does it mean when someone is willing to limp a huge % of his chips, and will they call a push? What is the correct play here?


Level:7 Blinds(150/300)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 3: damswede ( $2590 )
Seat 4: Hero ( $2320 )
Seat 6: mistertoc ( $1035 )
Seat 8: niuball33 ( $2395 )
Seat 10: zippy5412 ( $1660 )
Trny:16103112 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qs Ah ]
niuball33 folds.
zippy5412 calls [300].
damswede folds.
Hero is all-In [2170]
mistertoc folds.
zippy5412 is all-In [1360]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, Ac, 8h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2h ]
** Dealing River ** [ Td ]


What would you have done?

[raptor517]

this isnt even close. holla

[caretaker1]

A limper freezes my all-in moves almost as much as a raise, but AQ is too good here. Push.

[llabb]

Well, apparently it's not even close. But what I was thinking was that the guy must have some sort of pocket pair. What else do you call 1/5 of your stack with? I'm thinking if I push, he's like 90% going to call. Yes, there are donkeys at the 55's, but even donkeys usually have a hand if they want to play when they blinds are so high.

I was thinking that I didn't want to end up in a race when my stack is healthy and it's not quite even the bubble yet. But I pushed anyway, because my hand was too good. And, just like I thought, he called, he had 88, and he won.

I'm trying not to be results-oriented, but it made me stop and think further, because exactly what I feared was the case happened. Since it was such an easy push, in people's opinions, is it an easy call also, if the villain were to have pushed all-in first?

[Fatdogs12]

First of all what do you think he's got? Meaning, what do you think he is limping with? I would say a worse ace or a small pocket pair, with your fold equity on him (which probably still isn't much, it's gonna be player dependant though, some players will gladly fold) and the fact you got him covered makes this an all in u should be proud to make.

Even if you lose so what? You still got 900 chips or so, just start shoving a wide range and enough of the time you will double up and occasionally you will steal some blinds.

+++EV PUSH (IMO)

[RikaKazak]

super easy push, any other player would just be plain stupid

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]


I was thinking that I didn't want to end up in a race when my stack is healthy.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are playing the wrong game

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
I was thinking that I didn't want to end up in a race when my stack is healthy and it's not quite even the bubble yet

[/ QUOTE ]
You should be more willing to race precisely because "it's not quite even the bubble yet." You should be more liberal with your pushes and calls when there are 5 players than you would with 4, because you don't have nearly as much equity locked up.

[MegaBet]

Call or push, you were going to lose the hand anyway. You can't fold AQ in this situation. At least with a push you have a chance to get them to fold. In my experience they will fold about (guessing) 60% of the time when limping.

When you have your opponent covered, a neat trick is to raise exactly their chip stack. It probably adds about a 5% chance they will fold. Hey, it's something!

[llabb]

Couple responses to people. I do not think this hand is quite as easy as everyone is making it out to be. There's a reason I lost this hand and this tournament, and it's not because I got sucked out on. It's not a bad beat post.

First of all, I understand that pushing is the standard play. It's what I did. If the blinds were lower, even if they were 200, there is no question that pushing is sublime. The key to this problem, I think, is the size of the blinds in relation to people's stacks. The villain, zippy5412, had the least room to make a bad limp, and was likely to call, since he would have less than 5BB remaining if he folded.

Fatdogs, I stated what I thought he had, and was correct. Mid-pocket. A bad ace is much less likely. I feel there is very little fold equity here, with the blinds being so high. If I lose, I only have 660 chips, just about zero fold equity, and a mere 3 hands before the 150/300 blinds come to eat me up. Obviously a losing proposition.

Sykes, if you had a healthy enough stack to outlast other players and the blinds, would you choose to knowingly put yourself 50/50 race situations before it's even bubble time?

Pergs, I'm sorry, but I think you have it backwards. There's a reason we wait until the bubble to start pushing like a maniac. Hint: should you be more liberal with your pushes and calls when it's 10 players rather than 4?

MegaBet, it is possible to fold. I considered it. If somebody else pushed all-in ahead of me, there is a good chance I would fold. When you say you think limpers fold 60% of the time, is this from experience in the $55's, and are you talking about 300 chip blinds, where the limper would be left with less than 5BB and is only 2 away from the BB, where he would be left with 3BB after the blinds pass through him? Because in this situation, I se people folding less than 20% of the time.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
If somebody else pushed all-in ahead of me, there is a good chance I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, thats a hell of a lot different than a LIMP. there is nothing to study. nothing to look at. you cant take one occurance and try to challenge a whole analysis of proven sng theory. put him on a limp range. take yer aq up against that push range. factor in the 750 chips you get if he folds. i mean cmon man, this really isnt that hard. its an easy push. thats all there is too it. holla

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
Pergs, I'm sorry, but I think you have it backwards. There's a reason we wait until the bubble to start pushing like a maniac. Hint: should you be more liberal with your pushes and calls when it's 10 players rather than 4?

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong.

I'm going to take you through an exercise. It's entirely optional, but you'd be wise to do it, because it will lead you to a key concept of SNG play.

Check out the ICM calculator (http://sharnett.bol.ucla.edu/ICM/ICM.html).

Enter 5 stacks of 2000 - everybody, amazingly, has equal stacks in this particular tourney. Each player's equity is 20%. That ought to make perfect sense. Now make one of the stacks 4000 and one of them 0 - you just doubled up. What is your equity now? What was the change in equity?

Now let's look at what happens when you make it to the bubble with equal stacks, so enter 2500 chips for four players. Equity is 25%. Now double yourself up and calculate the equity. What's your new equity, and what's the change?

The payout structure of a tournament makes the bubble a very peculiar beast. It's not enough to say "I must be tighter 10-handed than 5-handed, therefore I must be tighter 5-handed than 4-handed." It's our opponents limited (or even nonexistent) knowledge of bubble concepts that allows us to easily exploit their mistakes. Learn the nuances of bubble play and your ROI will improve immensely.

[ezmogee]

What you're not realizing is that AQ is not "pushing like a maniac." besides 99-AK there is no other hand I'd rather have. Further, with blinds at this level, there's virtually no chance your opponent has 99-AK.

I'm somewhat shocked he'd limp here with 88 rather than push...I'm not sure you'll see that too often. Frequently, you'll have a bad player find QJs early and just think to himself that MAYBE he'll get to see a cheap flop for 25% of his chips...This is even MORE reason why I push this AQ.

What everyone else has said is correct. At WORST you're a coinflip. At best you're against AT or even QJ.

The truth of the matter is that at best you're still going to lose this hand 33% of the time. That's a lot. Would you play this hand any differently with AK? Because the outcome will be the same.

I've looked through your argument, but having played 50 sngs a day for several months and done all the math before, I can guarantee you this is an easy push. I also think that folding equity is slightly higher than what some pople have posted...

[lotus776]

agreed, the farther away from the bubble you are the more you can vary your play according to the blinds. Obviously your stack is huge part of what determines your play but you're in prime position to even release a hand like AQo. Depends on your justification of the likelyhood that someone will call with a prime hand. I think the push was definately called for in this situation.

good luck

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
Couple responses to people. I do not think this hand is quite as easy as everyone is making it out to be. There's a reason I lost this hand and this tournament, and it's not because I got sucked out on. It's not a bad beat post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's not a bad beat post. You didn't get bad beated or sucked out on.

[ QUOTE ]
MegaBet, it is possible to fold. I considered it. If somebody else pushed all-in ahead of me, there is a good chance I would fold. When you say you think limpers fold 60% of the time, is this from experience in the $55's, and are you talking about 300 chip blinds, where the limper would be left with less than 5BB and is only 2 away from the BB, where he would be left with 3BB after the blinds pass through him? Because in this situation, I se people folding less than 20% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are giving people far too much credit. I've seen (a lot of) people far more pot committed by limping and folding to an all-in.

[llabb]

I respect the posters' opinions here, which is why I wanted discussion on this. I just think there is more to it.

Please let me state again: I understand SNG theory, and why this is a push. That is why I pushed. Please stop giving me very basic reasons for why it is a push. I'm holding a premium hand, I put him on a range, yadda yadda yadda. I get it. I understand what people have been saying. If I were in the same spot again, I would most likely (grudgingly) push all over again. But I believe I should think strongly about playing it differently, hence this post.

Where I seem to disagree with other posters is on what the limp means and how much FE I have. Those are the keys. If there is 0 FE, then pushing is equivalent to calling his push, which is -EV. At this level of blinds and stack sizes, I read a limp primarily as a pocket. Aces usually fold, raise, or push, depending on the kicker quality. I do not believe I have much FE against a pocket, at these blinds. Please describe your experience against other hands if you feel otherwise. Have you really seen QJ limp in this spot? If one were to think he did not have much FE, I think you could see why it might not be a push.

[llabb]

One other thing. I get why everyone else thinks it's so easy, and what their reasons are. Except I don't get Perg's rationale. I respect your opinions, but can you explain more clearly what you mean?

I understand ICM, but the data leads me in a different direction than you. You seem to be looking at the greater equity locked up with fewer people, and the smaller % change that doubling up effects. Somehow this seems to mean to you to be looser with more people, and tighter with fewer people.

[ QUOTE ]
You should be more liberal with your pushes and calls when there are 5 players than you would with 4, because you don't have nearly as much equity locked up.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you really mean that you should be more liberal with more people, say 7, and tighter when it's down to 6, a little tighter when it's down to 5, a little tighter when it's down to 4, etc?

Please elucidate.

[pergesu]

Look at the equity when you're 6-handed and double through, and maybe you'll understand things better.

I'm not saying to be looser with more opponents. In fact the more opponents you have the tighter you ought to be, given small enough blinds. But, as I said, you'll need to be looser 5-handed than you would be 4-handed.

I've given you everything you need to know why this is. Now you just need to compare three numbers and figure out what's going on.

[MrX]

[ QUOTE ]
Call or push, you were going to lose the hand anyway. You can't fold AQ in this situation. At least with a push you have a chance to get them to fold. In my experience they will fold about (guessing) 60% of the time when limping.

When you have your opponent covered, a neat trick is to raise exactly their chip stack. It probably adds about a 5% chance they will fold. Hey, it's something!

[/ QUOTE ]

Or be a jerk and raise to their stack minus one chip.

X

[lorinda]

[ QUOTE ]
Or be a jerk and raise to their stack minus one chip.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is better if they have a bad connection.

Lori

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
the more opponents you have the tighter you ought to be

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you'll need to be looser 5-handed than you would be 4-handed

[/ QUOTE ]
Somewhere you're contradicting yourself, Perg. I'm trying to figure out what you want to get across, though.

10 Players: Avg Stack Equity: 10.0% Equity After Double Up: 18.4% Equity Change: 8.4% Equity % Change: 84%

6 Players: Avg Stack Equity: 16.7% Equity After Double Up: 28.7% Equity Change: 12.0% Equity % Change: 72%

5 Players: Avg Stack Equity: 20.0% Equity After Double Up: 33.0% Equity Change: 13.0% Equity % Change: 65%

4 Players: Avg Stack Equity: 25.0% Equity After Double Up: 38.3% Equity Change: 13.3% Equity % Change: 53%

Yes, as there are fewer players, your equity increase does not change much. It is essentially the same with 5 players or 4 players, although it is obviously a much smaller % change with 4 players due to ICM.

But I think you are drawing the wrong conclusion from this. I do not think that the answer is to be tighter 4-handed than 5-handed, but that your tightness on your pushes is primarily based on the blind levels, their corresponding % of your stack, and the # of players to push through.

10-handed, 5-handed, or 4-handed, you are still going to be very tight if the BB was 1 chip. If anything, you will be slightly looser with fewer players. Conversely, if the BB was enormous, your pushes would be much looser, especially with fewer players.

There are indeed times where you tighten up with fewer players, but that is because the blinds are a smaller % of your stack. If you were in a 10-handed situation with all equal stacks of 1000, and the blinds were 100-200, you would need to find youself a hand fairly quickly, as you could not go through more than 1 round of blinds. If a magic situation occured where that table suddenly became 4-handed, with equal stacks of 2500, blinds still 100-200, you would instantly tighten up, as you can now afford to wait longer, and the blinds are not worth as much.

But in an average game, the blinds rise proportionally to the average stack, until later in the game when the "bottleneck" occurs and the blinds are such a high proportion that people are tripping over themselves to go all-in. Once half of them are eliminated, the remaining stacks are so large that the blinds become more manageable.

Perhaps I'm going in a different direction than you intended Perg. Could you make your point a little clearer, or explain the discrepancy? Thanks.

[Skip Brutale]

You have less than 8 times the big blind. That isnt a healthy stack.

[llabb]

High blinds make a difference. That is the whole point of the post. Heads up, is 4500 chips at level 10 a healthy stack?

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]
Where I seem to disagree with other posters is on what the limp means and how much FE I have. Those are the keys. If there is 0 FE, then pushing is equivalent to calling his push, which is -EV.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is it? You have to put him on a really tight range here for it to be -EV.
It's break even with him pushing only 11% of hands. (44+, A9o, A8s, KQs)

[ QUOTE ]

At this level of blinds and stack sizes, I read a limp primarily as a pocket. Aces usually fold, raise, or push, depending on the kicker quality.


[/ QUOTE ]
Thats a mighty tight range you're putting him on. Are you psychic?
If you put him on 22+, folding to a push is -EV as you stated.

[ QUOTE ]

I do not believe I have much FE against a pocket, at these blinds. ... If one were to think he did not have much FE, I think you could see why it might not be a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have more than 0 FE. What if he accidentally hits the wrong button.
The other thing is that no-one here would fold to the reraise, but we wouldnt limp either.
You need to remember that your opponents sometimes do the wrong thing.

The question is what percentage of the time does he need to fold to make this push correct?
It should be possible to calculate this.

I'm guessing that number is quite small.

But I dont think you can be that sure about his range.


Inst.

[Insty]

[ QUOTE ]

The question is what percentage of the time does he need to fold to make this push correct?
It should be possible to calculate this.

I'm guessing that number is quite small.


[/ QUOTE ]

How wrong was I!

EV(fold) = our ev if we fold and villain wins the blinds = 0.219
EV = expected value of pushing
N = EV if we push and are Not called = 0.270
C = EV if we push and are Called* = 0.195
F = Percentage of the time villain folds to our push

* Villains range: 22+ (any pocket pair.) - our holding AQo

EV = N * F + C * ( 1 - F )

transposes to:

F = ( EV - C ) / ( N - C )

Plugging in the numbers:

Break even: (EV = EV(fold))

F = (0.219 - 0.195) / (0.270 - 0.195)
F = 0.32


So the villain needs to fold this 32% of the time.
I suspect he's never going to fold enough to make this worthwhile.

HOWEVER - can you be sure about his limping range?


Inst.

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At this level of blinds and stack sizes, I read a limp primarily as a pocket. Aces usually fold, raise, or push, depending on the kicker quality.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thats a mighty tight range you're putting him on. Are you psychic? If you put him on 22+, folding to a push is -EV as you stated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I am psychic. I've noticed $55'ers playing a slightly better bubble/near bubble. They do not limp at 300 blinds with crap. At 300 blinds, 4-to-5-handed, they usually understand they need to fold or raise their Aces, depending on their kickers. (Please note that I am not claiming that average $55'ers play a good bubble. Obviously, the villain should easily have pushed, but was a donk and limped his 88's. That is the type of donk mistake I see at the $55's.)

Anyway, I put him on a pair, any pair, but only a pair, which would be a -EV call and even a -EV push for me. And I was right. But I'm just like the rest of you arguing that AQ is an easy push, anyone who doesn't is a total moran. So I pushed and lost. Welcome to donkhood.

For those of you who have read this and think I'm a moran, please post some hands you have seen at the $55's, 300+ blinds, where a donk with a similar stack-size limps with KJ or some other crap. Or at this stack-size or less, where the donk limps and folds to a push.


[ QUOTE ]
...buncha math...
So the villain needs to fold this 32% of the time. I suspect he's never going to fold enough to make this worthwhile.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the math, Insty. Haven't checked it all, but it looks like the right concept and a very interesting outcome. Even if some of you disagree with me about have near-0 FE, I doubt you can see the villain folding even 20% of the time here, let alone a solid third.

In light of this data, I would appreciate other people's new responses, especially since this situation was "so easy" for 91% of you.