Hopeless call or pos ev?

[Huh]

I wasn't involved in this hand, but I witnessed it and was wondering what people thought.

Limit is 3-3-6-9.
Hero is in late position with As2s.

Flop is A-rag-rag all diamonds. Checked around.

Turn is a rag. Checked around

River is a diamond, putting the fourth diamond on the board. Early player bets, next folds.

What does our hero do with his pair of aces, no kicker?
Remember, the bet is big on the end, so EP bet $9 into a $9 pot, giving the late player 2:1 odds to call. So guess my question is, does the typical low-limit player take a shot at the pot here more or less than 33.3333333333% of the time.

I was on this fence about this one, but to everyone else it was a clear decision (which suprised me cause I was leaning the other way).

-Huh /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[cosmo kramer]

[Ed Miller]

This is a clear river fold, IMO. EP is betting into a protected pot, and could easily have been slowplaying a flopped flush in this wacky structure.

[Huh]

That is what everyone else said. I don't think it's that clear to me. I reversed the situation. If I was first to act and found myself in this situation(which I can't imagine I would be in), I think I bet this hand close to every time with absolutely anything. My reasoning is this...The vast majority of players with a decent diamond will bet the turn. I think an open bet on the river wins you this pot more than 50% of the time. Most players will fold a weak diamond figuring that you couldn't possibly be betting into two players on a four-diamond board with a $9 pot, without a decent diamond. So if I were the raiser, I would usually call me(if that makes sense), than again I know me pretty well.

I also think I would have bet at some point, but who knows (Hmmm, maybe I don't know me...I'm gonna spend some time getting to know myself.)

-Huh /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[Tyler Durden]

I think you'll be called by pretty much every diamond in the deck unless you're playing with professionals.