K8o bb 20-40 river decision

[mike l.]

good live 20-40 game. i have K8o in the bb and get a free look against one limper and the sb. the sb plays mediocre at best. ive seen him play passive when he shouldve been more aggressive, and ive also seen him make multi street bluffs. in other words typical random player, but he plays good enough to win at least some of the time.

the flop is Kh6c2s. i bet and they both call.

the turn is 8c. i bet and only the sb calls.

the river is 4c. sb bets, i ???

Raise and call 3-bet.

[CardSharpCook]

looks an awful lot like runner runner. Who knows, maybe he just gutshot you. I'm calling. This board is just so ugly. Can't imagine what other legitimate hands bet out on this river.

I raise because I put villian on 2 pair. Some players will complete with any2 in his spot, I dont see him calling turn with gutshot.

[Jdanz]

me i raise, could be two pair could be a flush, could be a king. I don't see any particular reason why he has the flush, the interesting part is whether to call the the three bet.

I do, but i rarely fold after putting in 2 bets on the river.

[DeezNutz3]

[ QUOTE ]
looks an awful lot like runner runner. Who knows, maybe he just gutshot you. I'm calling. This board is just so ugly. Can't imagine what other legitimate hands bet out on this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he has maybe 2c xc and hit runner runner...I might raise but I think it's a call.

[Lawrence Ng]

Call.

Lawrence

[andyfox]

The most likely scenario is that the river card helped him. We tend to talk about "donk" bets here and I think that sometimes we lose sight of the fact that the river bet into us when we've been betting all the way should mean caution. I'd forego the possible extra bet in favor of just calling and not risking losing three, because I wouldn't be suprised, with this guy's somewhat peculiar habits, to see a straight flush, a flush, a straight, or even a set, even though his most likely holding is two pair.

[worm33]

speed raise speed fold

[mike l.]

"I'd forego the possible extra bet in favor of just calling and not risking losing three"

this was my thinking as well but i think it's weak tight. even if he made a flush he's not always going to 3 bet always unless it's the nuts, same with a gutter ball, he might be afraid of a flush.

he had 8h4h for rivered two pair and i felt silly for fretting over the decision before crying calling when i shouldve been raising with confidence.

this is a new leak in my game. ive become way too weak tight on the river. another example was a 20 hand at commerce:

i had Kd4d in the bb and checked after some limpers.

the flop was Jd5d5s. i bet and was raised by an older asian man and i called.

the turn was a brick and i check-called.

the river was Ad. i bet, he raised with what was undisguised non-acting complete and total confidence in his hand, and i just called fearing A5. he showed me 9d6d and i won.

how can i fix this leak?

If he really got the flush this would be an excellent time for him to get a checkraise in (as it seems like an non-threatening card) so i think hes on a some sort of bluf, so i would just call as with a bluf he wouldnt call a raise, and with the flush he would reraise. however if he does have 2 pair....

yeah maybe he limped with 64s and called you the whole way with middle pair and now he got his two pair, so i would raise/fold, call third bet only if he is really really aggresive

[PokerCad]

Hi Mike,
I think this play is player dependant and either way is not a huge mistake ie raise/call or call but I agree with you in trying to improve this weak spot as this is a struggle spot for me too. Picking our spots for river aggresion with these types of hands is what makes good players better in session profits, I think player reads is the best way to approach this decision, that is what I have been trying to focus on. I lean for raising and then a crying call if re-raised given your player description.

PS: I play at Commerce regularly (20-40) and am looking to hook up with some 2+2ers for discussion/improvements etc,,, look me up, I go by initials JO

[casinogosain]

[ QUOTE ]

how can i fix this leak?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not necessarily convinced that this is a leak. I think the key is figuring out what kind of player you are up against. If you are up against a solid player, simply calling the river bet (or raise if you are OOP) is likely best. However, if your opponent HU on the river is mediocre or you are playing short-handed, I'm more inclined to raise in this spot. Finally, if you raise, you have to decide in advance whether to fold to a 3-bet or not (again, player dependent).

-Ash

[andyfox]

It's possible he would have folded to your raise too.

On the bonus hand, he might have waited 'til the turn with a 5, as you know. Undisguised non-acting doesn't mean he doesn't think he has the best hand even when he doesn't. But I don't worry so much about extra bets on the river when they either donk bet me or raise me and I just call with less than the nuts. I guess I figure I already got a bonus bet out of them. While it's rare, it's not impossible he lays down a hand you can beat to your river 3-bet.

I suppose one thing you can do, as an experiment, is to make sure you get the last bet in on the river (say, up to 3-bets) whenever you have a minimum holding--say top set. Caro used to have a mission similar to this, where whenever a decision was close you'd take the more aggressive action for a while, and then in another mission, you'd take the more passive action.

[PokerBabe(aka)]

Pay off. No raise necessary.

LGPG

Babe

[mike l.]

"It's possible he would have folded to your raise too."

he had two pair and he's a fish given the way he played the hand. he's not folding. are you serious?


as for you idea i think i need to try something like that. i did the other night when playing online. i decided i would value bet anything even remotely value bettable even if the board got scary (four flush, four straight, etc). my hand was good every time i did.

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Mike,
I think this play is player dependant

[/ QUOTE ]


Agreed. There are some players that I would raise here all the time; other players that I know ONLY do this bet out move when they hit something big and somehow convince themselves to believe that I know they had some miserable holding and will check behind now that they hit their runner-runner whatever. So...

Unfortunately

Sometimes this is a call.
Sometimes this is a raise.

Any more on the villain?

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com