KQs -- does it matter what I do?

[Nightwish]

Party 30/60. My opponent is definitely a TAG with 16.81/8.85/1.34 stats over 226 hands.

Do you guys think this is a value bet on the river? More importantly, why?

30/60, 10-handed. I'm dealt K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the hijack.

Villain open-raises UTG+2, I call two cold in the hijack (MP3), everyone else folds.

Flop (2 players, 5.5 SB): 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villain bets, I call.

Turn (2 players, 3.75 BB): Q/images/graemlins/club.gif

Villain checks, I bet, he check-raises, I 3-bet, he calls.

River (2 players, 9.75 BB): 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villain checks, I......

[1800GAMBLER]

I've changed my mind it's a betfold. You are 8:6 in favour, while i think AA is more like to screwplay the turn than AK i think some to most players lead the river with their new two pair with AA. If he auto checked the river without even seeing the card as some do, then you might have a case for checking.

[Fianchetto]

It's pretty close, but if you figure him for AA or AK, then there are 8 ways left to make AK, and 6 ways for AA....so that leads me to say bet. And if he does have AA I don't see him going for the river checkraise since you could have a set. So it seems like you are risking 1 bet to win 1 bet, and you are about 4:3 to hold the winner.

If there is any chance he could make that turn play with a worse king then you really have to bet. I don't think he could have a set because why would he slow down on the turn?

Edit: Is preflop standard? I mean the guy is a fairly tight raiser opening from EP, and I'm pretty sure QJs is a muck here. I guess a case could be made for all three options preflop, but I'm wondering if you are just mixing it up or you think calling is the best play?

[Nigel]

Easy bet. You beat everything but AA, and a checkraise there is rare. I would expect him to bet out AA on the river so as not to pay 3 bets if behind to a set.

[1800GAMBLER]

I disagree with both of you thinking villian here will worry about a set, i think most will pinpoint KQ way before 33. If he has AA and checked it, i think you are getting c/r'ed, but i'd imagine it just leads out.

Bet and call a check-raise

[Ian J]

I'd bet and fold to a checkraise. Your opponent knows (or should know) that you shouldn't have KK/QQ too ofen here because of your preflop play. So if he's thinking he'll know you have exactly KQ. Although I probably shouldn't generalize like this considering you could very well be mixing it up here w/ KK/QQ preflop.

Anyway, there's no way he's checkraising AK, so that leaves AA if he checkraises. As fianchetto already pointed out you should be betting based on hand combos. So bet.

[ggbman]

I think this is super easy. Bet and fold to a check raise. He's never check-raising a worse hand. He's never folding a king, and he won't even check-raise all the time when he has AA, so you gget to showdown anyway. I also think he would usually lead that river with AA, making AK more likely. One of the few bet/fold scenarios that i agree with.

[eviljeff]

I'm surprised no one's mentioned KQ yet. there's 4 combinations of it left. I think this possibility could easily turn a b/f into a b/c. are you guys just assuming he caps the turn with KQ?

[amulet]

no, i do not think it is a value bet. he is a tight opponent who check raised on the turn (once it got expensive), and he raised preflop. i think you are beat, and i check and showdown.

[lil feller]

Is this preflop play standard against this type of opponent?

lf

[PokerBob]

fold preflop

[amulet]

lol, i am not certain if you are baiting me or serious. as i have stated many times, i fold preflop.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
lol, i am not certain if you are baiting me or serious. as i have stated many times, i fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
No bait. This is a completely different situation. This pot is likely to be heads ups, and we know a lot about villians PFR standards, so your domination point is very valid.

Of the options I think cold-calling is the worst of the three. Against an opponent with those kind of stats my decision would be based on his WTSD%, if he likes to hang on to his hands, i'm folding. If his WTSD% is low, i'm 3betting to take initiative, and more importantly see if he caps.

lf

[Nigel]

[ QUOTE ]
no, i do not think it is a value bet. he is a tight opponent who check raised on the turn (once it got expensive), and he raised preflop. i think you are beat, and i check and showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

You put him squarely on AA with that degree of confidence?

[elmo]

People with resonable numbers have been making all sorts of silly preflop calls like this recently, am I confused, or are they strictly awful?

[Nightwish]

Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.

Flop: seems pretty standard, I want to see how this hand develops, and I'm not worried about any draws.

Turn: when he calls my 3-bet, I know he has one of 3 hands: KQ, AA, AK.

River: that 6 is obviously a problem. The worst part is that the villain knows exactly what I have. I'd be shocked if he's putting me on anything other than KQ. But of course, there's enough doubt in his mind that he wouldn't fold AK in an 11 BB pot if I were to bet the river. However, does his river check tell me anything? I think he's a little more likely to bet with AA, but if he knows that I know that /images/graemlins/smile.gif, I can't put it past him to attempt a check-raise with it.

The bottom line is that I'm ahead of 8 hands, behind to 6, and chop with 4. So can I bet-fold? It all depends on how likely he is to have KQ. He knows I don't have KK or QQ, so the only reason for him not to cap the turn is because he's worried about 66 (obviously, he's far less worried about 66 on the river). Would I play 66 the way I did so far, including the preflop cold-call? I wouldn't, but there are many TAGs who would (I know this because I see them make these plays). Most importantly, his biggest reason for not capping the turn with KQ is that he should know that once I 3-bet, he's either behind or chopping. So I cannot quite discount the chance that he has KQ.

All of this makes the river play tricky. I'm only a little bit ahead of the hands I lose to and I'm not even sure if I can fold to a check-raise because he can now check-raise KQ almost with impunity (only one 66 hand left that he's behind to). Again, my guess is that all the options here are pretty close in terms of EV.

I elected to bet, and fortunately, he made it pretty simple for me by just calling with his AK.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
no, i do not think it is a value bet. he is a tight opponent who check raised on the turn (once it got expensive), and he raised preflop. i think you are beat, and i check and showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? You don't think he'd play AK exactly the same way? Thinking that you must be beat here is far too weak.

[DeezNutz3]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.



[/ QUOTE ]

I am curious as to why you want to float a seemingly solid player w/ a frequently dominated hand? Why the 7.5% PFR number as the cutoff? I may be playing incorrectly but I autofold against an unknown(no reads) with these numbers. I actually don't think an 8.85% PFR is that close to floating/or as you say you would normally do, 3 bet. Interested in why you view this as a +EV hand against his range.
Thanks,
Donny

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.


[/ QUOTE ]
I am curious as to why you want to float a seemingly solid player w/ a frequently dominated hand? Why the 7.5% PFR number as the cutoff? I may be playing incorrectly but I autofold against an unknown(no reads) with these numbers. I actually don't think an 8.85% PFR is that close to floating/or as you say you would normally do, 3 bet. Interested in why you view this as a +EV hand against his range.


[/ QUOTE ]
I like 3-betting against a player like him because he's not too aggressive postflop and I suspect that I can run him off a hand even if it's A high. I'm a big fan of position. Cold-calling is not too bad either, especially if I think it will encourage others to cold-call behind me (obviously didn't happen this time). The numbers I threw out like 7.5 PFR are somewhat arbitrary in that they're based on my own experience, so I don't have any scientific evidence to back them up. But like I said, my guess is that all three preflop options are fairly close in this case.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.


[/ QUOTE ]
I am curious as to why you want to float a seemingly solid player w/ a frequently dominated hand? Why the 7.5% PFR number as the cutoff? I may be playing incorrectly but I autofold against an unknown(no reads) with these numbers. I actually don't think an 8.85% PFR is that close to floating/or as you say you would normally do, 3 bet. Interested in why you view this as a +EV hand against his range.


[/ QUOTE ]
I like 3-betting against a player like him because he's not too aggressive postflop and I suspect that I can run him off a hand even if it's A high. I'm a big fan of position. Cold-calling is not too bad either, especially if I think it will encourage others to cold-call behind me (obviously didn't happen this time). The numbers I threw out like 7.5 PFR are somewhat arbitrary in that they're based on my own experience, so I don't have any scientific evidence to back them up. But like I said, my guess is that all three preflop options are fairly close in this case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I agree with all 3 being close against the same player. Isn't one of the three going to be clearly better based on how he plays postflop? I agree that three betting will often get him off a better hand if you both miss, but if his WTSD% is high, this won't work. Against a high WTSD% you have to hit to win whether you 3 bet or not, and more importantly he has to miss.

I think you can make a case for 3betting, if he's capable of folding A-high. I think you can make a case for folding if he's not. I think the only case for cold-calling is if you are reasonable sure that a lot of people will come behind you. What is MP3 by the converters standards? HiJack, cutoff? I honestly don't know. You left out the VPIP of the blinds and the people behind you and how many were behind you, which greatly factor into the coldcalling decision. All in all I think given the apparent game conditions 3betting and folding are close, and both are a lot better than cold calling. but i'm probably wrong.

lf

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.


[/ QUOTE ]
I am curious as to why you want to float a seemingly solid player w/ a frequently dominated hand? Why the 7.5% PFR number as the cutoff? I may be playing incorrectly but I autofold against an unknown(no reads) with these numbers. I actually don't think an 8.85% PFR is that close to floating/or as you say you would normally do, 3 bet. Interested in why you view this as a +EV hand against his range.


[/ QUOTE ]
I like 3-betting against a player like him because he's not too aggressive postflop and I suspect that I can run him off a hand even if it's A high. I'm a big fan of position. Cold-calling is not too bad either, especially if I think it will encourage others to cold-call behind me (obviously didn't happen this time). The numbers I threw out like 7.5 PFR are somewhat arbitrary in that they're based on my own experience, so I don't have any scientific evidence to back them up. But like I said, my guess is that all three preflop options are fairly close in this case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I agree with all 3 being close against the same player. Isn't one of the three going to be clearly better based on how he plays postflop? I agree that three betting will often get him off a better hand if you both miss, but if his WTSD% is high, this won't work. Against a high WTSD% you have to hit to win whether you 3 bet or not, and more importantly he has to miss.

I think you can make a case for 3betting, if he's capable of folding A-high. I think you can make a case for folding if he's not. I think the only case for cold-calling is if you are reasonable sure that a lot of people will come behind you. What is MP3 by the converters standards? HiJack, cutoff? I honestly don't know. You left out the VPIP of the blinds and the people behind you and how many were behind you, which greatly factor into the coldcalling decision. All in all I think given the apparent game conditions 3betting and folding are close, and both are a lot better than cold calling. but i'm probably wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, MP3 is the hijack. Here are some additional stats.

CO: 50.93/5.95/0.93 over 269 hands
Button: 25.17/12.56/1.68 over 3,909 hands
SB: 25.95/11.28/1.19 over 709 hands
BB: 17.77/9.83/1.09 over 692 hands

Does that change your mind at all? Frankly, I thought it was fairly likely that the CO would come in pretty much regardless of what I did. I thought there was a decent chance the rest of them would also come in if both me and the CO called 2 cold, but I was pretty sure it would end up 3-ways if I 3-bet, i.e. the original raiser, me, and the CO. I was very surprised when the CO folded.

[lil feller]

If it were me looking at those stats, i'd lean towards a fold. Certainly the c/o folding is surprising, but you know the BB is folding, and if he doesn't your probably in trouble. The two 25/12 guys aren't really the coldcalling type, to aggressive, so if they're playing they are probably 3 betting. Tough to say for sure, but based on how I read PT stats, those make it look more like a fold or 3bet then a call.

lf

[SLEEPER]

Nightwish,

If he knows you have KQ, would he assume you would call a bet on the river? Is he more likely to believe you will bet if he checks? If I had AA here, I would probably bet the river here way more than I check call/raise. I would probably bet, if he raises, I would probably fold, however, if he is capable of checkraising with his AK, then I might want to switch tables..... or not get involved with him in many hands.....

NH

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
And if he does have AA I don't see him going for the river checkraise since you could have a set.

[/ QUOTE ]
What set could Hero have here? I really don't think he'd cold-call with KK, 66 or 33 here pre-flop. If the villain have stats on Hero the most probable hands after the turn would be AA or KQs.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
Nightwish,

If he knows you have KQ, would he assume you would call a bet on the river? Is he more likely to believe you will bet if he checks? If I had AA here, I would probably bet the river here way more than I check call/raise. I would probably bet, if he raises, I would probably fold, however, if he is capable of checkraising with his AK, then I might want to switch tables..... or not get involved with him in many hands.....

NH

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I doubt he'd be check-raising with AK, but I'm not so sure that he wouldn't check-raise with KQ. That makes it 10 hands that he might check-raise, but I only lose to 6 of them, which means I have to call the check-raise. Of course, my guess is he's not equally likely to be check-raising with all 10, but I don't know what his actual probability distribution is (if I did, I wouldn't have posted this hand).

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is super easy. Bet and fold to a check raise. He's never check-raising a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Isn't that a reason for him to check-raise with AK? If he's going to call one bet he might as well check-raise since everyone seems to agree he'll never do it with a worse hand. Doesn't that fact make it a perfect situation to bluff? Shania drowned in the river?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop

[/ QUOTE ]