a weird line i just took

[PokerBob]

villain likes to donkbet draws and is 58/8/1.2. i've seen him overlimp/rr with TT...he's just weird. whatcha think?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (3.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>.......

[bank]

I think you have to bet this turn...unless his river aggression/wtsd is insanely high. He just doesn't seem lag/maniac enough for this play to be more profitable than betting the turn.

[gildwulf]

Are you trying to induce a bet from him? Maybe I'm dumb but I don't get your line on the turn and river. Bet/Raise on the river is most likely going to get a big fat fold from him. You'll probably get one bet, maybe two. Betting after he checks on the turn may get him to fold but it also puts your money in when you're a likely favorite and prevents giving a free card to a bunch of straight draws (JQ, J9, etc). I think you should bet the turn.

[W. Deranged]

A couple of thoughts:

1. Villain's turn check is odd, and to me likely indicates a very good hand (trips) or trash. It encourages me to start to think of this hand as a kind of WA/WB situation, where I'm looking to ensure that villain gets at least a bet or two in here but doesn't force me to put in 3 BB or more.

2. We are not vulnerable to too many cards, unless villain just turned a flush draw. Villain may well continue betting with the draw based on his profile, so I'm not too worried about that. Giving a free river card is likely not that expensive a proposal.

3. Villain seems the type that is very likely to bet the river if the turn is checked, and hence checking here may be the best way to assure one bet goes in. If villain has a hand we're beating, like JT or something like that, a river raise will likely get the same number of bets in as a turn bet and a river value bet. If villain has a hand we're killing, waiting likely gets more value.

4. Are you planning on folding to a three-bet here? If so, this line has kind of a nice advantage of allowing you to get out at 2 BB against trips or another big hand instead of three. If you bet the turn and are check-raised, I imagine it's much harder to get away from this than it is to a river three-bet.

As I think about it, this line seems likely to:

-Win the most from hands we're killing (underpairs and no pair hands) that might simply fold the turn.
-Win the same amount from decent hands like JT or 99.
-Possibly lose less to monsters.

Couple that with the fact we're not that vulnerable to too many river cards, and I like this line.

Nice hand, Bob.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
A couple of thoughts:

2. We are not vulnerable to too many cards, unless villain just turned a flush draw. Villain may well continue betting with the draw based on his profile, so I'm not too worried about that. Giving a free river card is likely not that expensive a proposal.


[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding? There is a flush draw and multiple straight draws on the table when it comes to the turn. Not betting the turn is a mistake.

[MoDOH]

How about instead you bet this turn and protect your hand from 3-5 outers and also give him the oppurtunity to bluffraise you. ..

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A couple of thoughts:

2. We are not vulnerable to too many cards, unless villain just turned a flush draw. Villain may well continue betting with the draw based on his profile, so I'm not too worried about that. Giving a free river card is likely not that expensive a proposal.


[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding? There is a flush draw and multiple straight draws on the table when it comes to the turn. Not betting the turn is a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've commented on the flush draw already. The only hand with a lot of draw is J9, and villain might continue to bet this on the turn anyway, and is not folding if we bet as it is. The only hand on the turn that has more than 3 outs that we might fold could be a hand like Q9 or QJ.

It is true that villain may have a hand with outs against us. But it is heads-up and a tricky/weird player like this who will bet out the flop with a draw will often continue to bet the draw, particularly if that draw improves.

I don't think Bob's line is necessarily best always but I think in this situation, where it is less likely that our opponent is betting a draw because of the lack of a flush draw on the flop, and there are value advantages to waiting until the river, it might be good.

[MoDOH]

Though I agree that betting the Turn is the best against this opponent I don´t think it´s a big mistake,if any, to check the turn since the pot is so small.
Having said that I think checking turns like this is better saved against players that are tight and is unlikely to call the turn with a worse hand but are likely to bet the river if the turn checks through...

[imitation]

I like raise the flop, bet the turn and the river sometimes. He's agr enough to donk but probably not enough to 3-bet with crapola.

[Lmn55d]

You gotta bet this turn unless you suspect villain is check/folding (very unlikely). Most of the time an 8 would slowplay more. Most of the time he this will be him scared of the K and trying to get to showdown cheaply (even lags do this). His most likely hand is a T i believe or mid pocket pair. I think a draw would continue semibluffing. You are missing way too much value by checking here. Also, as another poster mentioned, you can induce bluff raises or semibluff checkraises which will happen fairly frequently. A lot of times he will call with a draw and bluff the river anyway so you can still induce a bluff.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I like raise the flop, bet the turn and the river sometimes. He's agr enough to donk but probably not enough to 3-bet with crapola.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see very little reason to raise the flop. I like it more with A high, where we have more showdown value and have the possibility of taking a cheap showdown, but not here.

[Lmn55d]

I think the likelihood of BB paying 2 bets to see the showdown (check/calling turn and river) is so high and your likelihood of having the best hand so high that checking the turn is indeed a big mistake. If there were a greater chance of behing behind or of BB check/folding the turn then I would like it more.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the likelihood of BB paying 2 bets to see the showdown (check/calling turn and river) is so high and your likelihood of having the best hand so high that checking the turn is indeed a big mistake. If there were a greater chance of behing behind or of BB check/folding the turn then I would like it more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that your analysis relies heavily on one thing:

Villain is significantly more likely to put in one bet on the turn and one on the river than he is to put in two on the river.

Is this obviously true? It seems not so. Villain may well call the river raise because our line is so odd...

[wackjob]

Giving a free card when you hold TP but don't hold an A is just wrong. It is even more wrong vs. a loose player who is likely to call a raggy flop to the river with a weak A.

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
villain likes to donkbet draws

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop donk = draw

Bet the turn because you likely have the best hand and he'll call you down with any smaller pair, and even might call a river bet with A high here.

Bet to make him incorrectly call a gutshot.

Only problem I see is if he'll raise the turn here on a flush draw that might give you some fits (even though I think you'd have to call it down if you think he'd almost never bet a set on the flop here).

If he's bluffing the river because you checked the turn, he folds to the raise and you only get 1BB out of him.
While any made hand you beat he calls down.

I think there are spots to try to extract value by 'slowplaying' and such, this doesn't really strike me as being a good place to attempt it because he is likely drawing given your read and the flop action. Also, I think a river raise gets folded more often than a hand you beat calls the turn and river..

[ArturiusX]

I like the concept, but I dont think this is quite the spot to do it in.

Just bet.

[jrbick]

Knowing this guy's WTSD would be grand in this situation and here's why:

If it's high 30's +, you know that you could safely bet this turn and get paid off. If it's low 30's or less, then I don't mind checking as you seemed pretty sure that it would indeed induce the bluff on the river, but then again, what if it doesn't? I think you're getting in the same amount of bets even if it does induce the bluff, so if he's going to showdown often enough, make sure you get at least that one in on the turn.

[Lmn55d]

I just think he has a draw a lot of the time or will check/call the river after checking through on the turn. Also I think he might bluff raise the turn a decent amount.

[Victor]

i dont see why you are takin so much heat for this one.

your line serves a dual purpose. if he has a 10 or any pair you are getting 2bets from him no matter which line you take (yours or betting turn). those are by far his most likely hands. if he has garbage you may be able to induce a river bluff and gain an extra bet.

the problem is giving free cards to gutshots and pairs. in which case you may be 3bet on the riv and its an easy fold.

interesting. i dont think its as bad as everyone is making it out to be.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont see why you are takin so much heat for this one.

your line serves a dual purpose. if he has a 10 or any pair you are getting 2bets from him no matter which line you take (yours or betting turn). those are by far his most likely hands. if he has garbage you may be able to induce a river bluff and gain an extra bet.

the problem is giving free cards to gutshots and pairs. in which case you may be 3bet on the riv and its an easy fold.

interesting. i dont think its as bad as everyone is making it out to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Among other reasons that I think this is fine is that pairs have 2 outs against us, not 5 usually.

[jrbick]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont see why you are takin so much heat for this one.

your line serves a dual purpose. if he has a 10 or any pair you are getting 2bets from him no matter which line you take (yours or betting turn). those are by far his most likely hands. if he has garbage you may be able to induce a river bluff and gain an extra bet.

the problem is giving free cards to gutshots and pairs. in which case you may be 3bet on the riv and its an easy fold.

interesting. i dont think its as bad as everyone is making it out to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just wondered (and this is purely read based which we need Bob for) how one should handle the situation w/o being sure that checking the turn will in fact induce the bluff. Obviously we can never be sure 100% or even 90% of the time on decisions like this, but if we've seen it before we can make this play most of the time.

I guess w/o more information from Bob, I want to make sure I get at least the bet on the turn and hopefully another on the River.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
interesting. i dont think its as bad as everyone is making it out to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

me neither, but i play bad.

[joker122]

if you bet the turn in this spot, do you fold to a CR?

[Lmn55d]

hell no, if that was a stipulation check is definitely better.