Bob T.
09-26-2005, 02:16 PM
Daniel Boone became famous because according to legend he wrestled a B'ar bare handed. Life is a lot easier if you don't go that route.
The first half of this year, I ran bad after running at about 2/100 for a couple of years, I was suddenly down below 1/100 for February through June. That sucked. If you do that one month, its just variance. If you do it two, its big variance. When it gets to five, its time to look at your game. Maybe when it gets to two you should look at your game, but hey, it worked for about three years, so it should keep working now, shouldn't it?
During this time, my bankroll kept shrinking, because poker is my parttime job, and I spend part of my bankroll every month. So, I found myself with a bankroll that I wasn't comfortable playing 5/10 with, and moved back down to 3/6. At the same time I was wondering why I was running so bad.
Anyway, I came to the conclusion that the games had changed over time. So my approach had to change, or I wasn't going ot continue to be successful. This post is about one of the changes, and how I've adapted.
A long long time ago, (at least in internet time) you could log onto Paradise Poker, which was the only game for a while, and look for 30%/7+BB games, when you found one, you knew that the game was probably one where you could make a profit. Probably 50% of the games fit that description. The games where also all pretty generic. About half the players would be seeing somewhere around 20-25% of the flops, maybe you would have one tight guy at around 15%, and the rest would be somewhere higher. As long as you didn't have the seat in front of all the loose guys, you were in good shape.
Now maybe 15% of the games have 7BB averages, and not many have 30% seeing the flop. If you want that kind of game, you probably have to play live poker, but then you would be giving up the ability to play 200-300 hands per hour, so you probably make less money. (unless you are making under 1/100 /images/graemlins/frown.gif ).
Anyway, overall players are a lot tighter than they used to be, most of the tighter players are between 15-20% seeing the flop, and the loose ones are in the 30s.
There is one player, that didn't exist back then, and that is the supertight player. You guys all have them in your database, and they look something like 7.5/1.5/2.00. The reason this player exists, is that they are probably recieving rakeback, and if they can play enough tables, they only need to be barely profitable to make some money. $.03/hand times 600 hands per hour = $18.00 per hour for breaking even. Add in .25BB/100 and they are making about $27/ hour for playing 3/6 holdem with very low volatility.
So these guys are in your game. ( Actually they seem to be in the 3/6 game a lot more than in the 5/10. I don't think they have enough talent to break even in the 5/10 and the fact that the game is more aggressive with better players probably makes it too tough for them to succeed at a higher level.) How do you deal with them?
First thing to notice, is that they are playing less hands than you are usually raising. So if they limp, they probably have a better hand than you would usually raise. This means that with your raise, you are building a pot that most likely will go to someone else. If they limp, you need to tighten up your raising requirements, to the hands that you would usually threebet a normal raiser with. If they limp, and you would be the second player in the pot, you probably want to be very cautious about entering the pot. I had been using the assumption that openlimpers were always weak, so I had been raising the supertight openlimper, and then finding myself in a tough spot, when I was headsup against a player with a better hand than mine. So when he limps, I am less likely to raise, less likely to play, and if I do play, I really want to have the extra value of being suited to help my hand out.
Secondly, when this guy raises, what hands do you play? He is raising 1.5% of the time. Multiply .015 times 1326, and you get 19-20 hands. AA is six hands, KK is six hands AK suited is four hands, QQ is six hands. Maybe he loosens up, and tries to steal on the button occasionally with AKo, or AQ. But when he raises those are the hands that you can expect him to hold. How does QQ fair against those? If he openraises in EP, you can expect him to hold the AA, KK, and AKs or AA, KK, and QQ. You probably won't win more than one out of 4 times with QQ. So you can't be threebetting him here, and you should probably be folding. If you really can't let go of this hand, at least consider coldcalling, because you might be saving yourself a sb by doing that.
The third thing you notice about this player, is that they usually have high postflop aggression numbers. You start to think that they always are betting postflop, regardless of what they flopped, but it isn't true. They started with very good cards, and once the flop happens, it is just very likely that they are ahead, their postflop bets are value bets, and you need to take them seriously. This guy isn't making money by bluffing. He is value betting his good hands, and you need at least a good hand to stick around. This is one weakness that this player has. He is used to playing from ahead, so if he limped in EP, there were a couple more limpers, and you got to play some implied odds hand on the button, and you made your hand, you might get him to go off for several bets with his top pair or overpair. He's playing eight tables, and doesn't necessarily have time to figure out that 97 suited might make a straight here. But for the most part, you don't want to get into a raising war with this guy.
OK, so far its all been about caution. But there is one time you can challenge the b'ar, and come out ahead. If he is in the BB, and has a VPIP of 7.5, how often do you think he will defend the blind? The answer is of course, not very often. I think that this is a great time to get out of line. If I have nothing but tight players between me and the supertight player in the big blind, I openraise regardless of the cards that I hold. I would guess that he might play one out of six hands when his blind is raised. Of course, that hand is probably pretty good, so if he calls your preflop raise, you need to be pretty careful after that. I usually put in one continuation bet, and if he doesn't fold then, I am done, unless I have some kind of hand at that point. But lets assume that you raise, and 5 times win the blinds. At 3/6 that's $20. The sixth time, you lose 3 SBs or $9. That's about $2 profit every time you try and steal the blinds from him. Just remember, if he calls, or plays back at you, you might very well be in trouble, so you should be playing cautiously after the flop.
Anyway, Daniel Boone might have succeeded in wrestling the B'ar barehanded, but you will probably be better off, if you only do it on your terms.
The first half of this year, I ran bad after running at about 2/100 for a couple of years, I was suddenly down below 1/100 for February through June. That sucked. If you do that one month, its just variance. If you do it two, its big variance. When it gets to five, its time to look at your game. Maybe when it gets to two you should look at your game, but hey, it worked for about three years, so it should keep working now, shouldn't it?
During this time, my bankroll kept shrinking, because poker is my parttime job, and I spend part of my bankroll every month. So, I found myself with a bankroll that I wasn't comfortable playing 5/10 with, and moved back down to 3/6. At the same time I was wondering why I was running so bad.
Anyway, I came to the conclusion that the games had changed over time. So my approach had to change, or I wasn't going ot continue to be successful. This post is about one of the changes, and how I've adapted.
A long long time ago, (at least in internet time) you could log onto Paradise Poker, which was the only game for a while, and look for 30%/7+BB games, when you found one, you knew that the game was probably one where you could make a profit. Probably 50% of the games fit that description. The games where also all pretty generic. About half the players would be seeing somewhere around 20-25% of the flops, maybe you would have one tight guy at around 15%, and the rest would be somewhere higher. As long as you didn't have the seat in front of all the loose guys, you were in good shape.
Now maybe 15% of the games have 7BB averages, and not many have 30% seeing the flop. If you want that kind of game, you probably have to play live poker, but then you would be giving up the ability to play 200-300 hands per hour, so you probably make less money. (unless you are making under 1/100 /images/graemlins/frown.gif ).
Anyway, overall players are a lot tighter than they used to be, most of the tighter players are between 15-20% seeing the flop, and the loose ones are in the 30s.
There is one player, that didn't exist back then, and that is the supertight player. You guys all have them in your database, and they look something like 7.5/1.5/2.00. The reason this player exists, is that they are probably recieving rakeback, and if they can play enough tables, they only need to be barely profitable to make some money. $.03/hand times 600 hands per hour = $18.00 per hour for breaking even. Add in .25BB/100 and they are making about $27/ hour for playing 3/6 holdem with very low volatility.
So these guys are in your game. ( Actually they seem to be in the 3/6 game a lot more than in the 5/10. I don't think they have enough talent to break even in the 5/10 and the fact that the game is more aggressive with better players probably makes it too tough for them to succeed at a higher level.) How do you deal with them?
First thing to notice, is that they are playing less hands than you are usually raising. So if they limp, they probably have a better hand than you would usually raise. This means that with your raise, you are building a pot that most likely will go to someone else. If they limp, you need to tighten up your raising requirements, to the hands that you would usually threebet a normal raiser with. If they limp, and you would be the second player in the pot, you probably want to be very cautious about entering the pot. I had been using the assumption that openlimpers were always weak, so I had been raising the supertight openlimper, and then finding myself in a tough spot, when I was headsup against a player with a better hand than mine. So when he limps, I am less likely to raise, less likely to play, and if I do play, I really want to have the extra value of being suited to help my hand out.
Secondly, when this guy raises, what hands do you play? He is raising 1.5% of the time. Multiply .015 times 1326, and you get 19-20 hands. AA is six hands, KK is six hands AK suited is four hands, QQ is six hands. Maybe he loosens up, and tries to steal on the button occasionally with AKo, or AQ. But when he raises those are the hands that you can expect him to hold. How does QQ fair against those? If he openraises in EP, you can expect him to hold the AA, KK, and AKs or AA, KK, and QQ. You probably won't win more than one out of 4 times with QQ. So you can't be threebetting him here, and you should probably be folding. If you really can't let go of this hand, at least consider coldcalling, because you might be saving yourself a sb by doing that.
The third thing you notice about this player, is that they usually have high postflop aggression numbers. You start to think that they always are betting postflop, regardless of what they flopped, but it isn't true. They started with very good cards, and once the flop happens, it is just very likely that they are ahead, their postflop bets are value bets, and you need to take them seriously. This guy isn't making money by bluffing. He is value betting his good hands, and you need at least a good hand to stick around. This is one weakness that this player has. He is used to playing from ahead, so if he limped in EP, there were a couple more limpers, and you got to play some implied odds hand on the button, and you made your hand, you might get him to go off for several bets with his top pair or overpair. He's playing eight tables, and doesn't necessarily have time to figure out that 97 suited might make a straight here. But for the most part, you don't want to get into a raising war with this guy.
OK, so far its all been about caution. But there is one time you can challenge the b'ar, and come out ahead. If he is in the BB, and has a VPIP of 7.5, how often do you think he will defend the blind? The answer is of course, not very often. I think that this is a great time to get out of line. If I have nothing but tight players between me and the supertight player in the big blind, I openraise regardless of the cards that I hold. I would guess that he might play one out of six hands when his blind is raised. Of course, that hand is probably pretty good, so if he calls your preflop raise, you need to be pretty careful after that. I usually put in one continuation bet, and if he doesn't fold then, I am done, unless I have some kind of hand at that point. But lets assume that you raise, and 5 times win the blinds. At 3/6 that's $20. The sixth time, you lose 3 SBs or $9. That's about $2 profit every time you try and steal the blinds from him. Just remember, if he calls, or plays back at you, you might very well be in trouble, so you should be playing cautiously after the flop.
Anyway, Daniel Boone might have succeeded in wrestling the B'ar barehanded, but you will probably be better off, if you only do it on your terms.