10/20 Give up or fire away?

[Poldi]

Villain is 61/17/1.3 over 180 hands. Certainly doesnt fold too much, he will call down any piece.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero..

Whats my plan on turn (and river)?

[wheelz]

give it up. he isn't folding so why fire? sure he might have a draw, but that's still an ugly board, and there's a lot of river cards you don't want to see. the pot is pretty small, i'm not too worried about showing this down. i check/fold.

[obsidian]

A read on whether he folds the flop often when he misses would be good. Some people peel with absolutely anything. Against them I plan on betting the turn near 100% of the time. I'd say a good default line is bet/fold though. Especially since he may check behind if he missed.

[Poldi]

Well, the "certainly doesnt fold too much" is true for all streets.
I check-folded the turn but it felt a bit weak to just give up.

[wackjob]

Check/fold the turn is the correct play here against all but the most nutty maniacs. There are so few hands that you are ahead of here and the few that you are ahead of still have a lot of outs to beat you (J10)

[Ray Of Light]

In these situations, with 180 hands on your opponent, you MUST have built some kind of read on your opponent. ABC plays simply aren't gonna cut it here. What you do will depend on how your opponent tends to play their hands heads up.

But, based on the stats that you do have, if my opponent has a high went to showdown %, I would bet the turn (still assuming that I was ahead with ace high), then check/fold the river unimproved to a bet from this passive player.

If he had a low went to showdown %, I would check/fold the turn to a bet from this passive player.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
There are so few hands that you are ahead of here and the few that you are ahead of still have a lot of outs to beat you (J10)


[/ QUOTE ]

Villian calls PF with anything. Villian calls flop with any backdoor draw or ace high. Hero is ahead of far more hands that villian could have than he is behind with. I realize that this board is well coordinated and the broadways are dynamic, but I don't give credit to opponents who don't deserve any.

And though I'm not sure, I think a 1.3 AF is high enough to fear an auto river bet. And the broadways with your middle position open raise protects you from a draw check raise.

[Poldi]

[ QUOTE ]
In these situations, with 180 hands on your opponent, you MUST have built some kind of read on your opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I always datamine before I start playing.

I feel that most 10/20 players always bet the river when I check it to them after they called my turnbet, so I most likely gotta pay 2 bets to see a showdown here. Maybe this is wrong, I m not sure, but it seems to me that a lot of the passive players bluff the river when you show weakness.
I dont think check-folding the river is a good option when I got there.

[Ray Of Light]

When I say reads, I am not talking about poker tracker stats. I am talking about personalised reads. How do they play top pair/second pair/bottom pair? Do they cap their draws? Do they fold on the turn for one bet unimproved? Do they like to bluff bet at paired flops? and so on...

Poker tracker stats are very useful in building a general read on your opponent, but they still don't provide enough information, in my opinion, when you find yourself heads up against your opponent in a marginal spot.

[Poldi]

[ QUOTE ]
When I say reads, I am not talking about poker tracker stats. I am talking about personalised reads. How do they play top pair/second pair/bottom pair? Do they cap their draws? Do they fold on the turn for one bet unimproved? Do they like to bluff bet at paired flops? and so on...

Poker tracker stats are very useful in building a general read on your opponent, but they still don't provide enough information, in my opinion, when you find yourself heads up against your opponent in a marginal spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I get what you are saying. My point was that me having 180 hands on him doesnt mean I actually played those 180 hands with him (because of the datamining), therefore this is all I got on him as a read. I think you wanted to say that I must have gotten some kind of personalized read on him when I have 180 hands on him but that is not true.

I agree that a real read makes this much easier to play.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel that most 10/20 players always bet the river when I check it to them after they called my turnbet

[/ QUOTE ]
If we change "most 10/20 players" to "most 10/20 players with stats like this guy's" (since that's really what's relevant), I'm not sure I agree. I see guys like this coldcall and call down and then check the river with small pocket pairs and AX hands all the time, as well as hands like 78 (flopped bottom pair).

[Poldi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I feel that most 10/20 players always bet the river when I check it to them after they called my turnbet

[/ QUOTE ]
If we change "most 10/20 players" to "most 10/20 players with stats like this guy's" (since that's really what's relevant), I'm not sure I agree. I see guys like this coldcall and call down and then check the river with small pocket pairs and AX hands all the time, as well as hands like 78 (flopped bottom pair).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for clearing this up. I just moved up so my sample is very small and I am sure your experience is more accurate than mine. In this case bet-fold turn, check-fold river may be the best line.