What did we learn: Week Three

[jedinite]

Post your thoughts and conclusions from Week Three. I think this is one of the most important things we can colaborate on: what lessons did we learn, in terms of evaluating future performance:

Monday night pending, of course, but here's some of what I picked up watching all the games this weekend:

Specific to my picks (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3471945&page=2&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1) (2-2 this week losing Tampa & Dallas):

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay: Green Bay is in for a long season. Favre is making way too many mistakes - if he continues to turn the ball over the Packers are going to be in real trouble. Tampa looked solid but the defense didn't perform to the level expected - they still should have been able to cover the six, so I'm pretty happy about the analysis that led me to pick Tampa. This was a close game that could have gone either way - Tampa was up by four most of the way and could have very easily been a push.

Vikings vs New Orleans: key here was Min opening up the running game. Moore will likely retain the starting job, he's a decent fantasy pickup if he's still free in your league. With the running game open, Culpepper was finally able to make a decent impact. Look for the Vikings to get on a roll from here out - especially if they're playing teams who are weak against the run. Culpepper's #1 receiver in Burleson looks like he's out until week 6, but once he's back they should be in pretty good shape. However, Vikes lines won't likely be as one-sided as they were this week.

Dallas at Frisco: Felt confident in this analysis even after the fact: considering that the Cowboys put up 34 points. Dallas offense looked very solid, well balanced. Bledsoe is a suprise at QB, putting up solid results and making few mistakes. Julius Jones is performing better than expected, even with all the preseason hype that went his direction. Biggest thing I took from this game: Dallas has serious problems in the secondary. Even SanFran was able to torch them deep - serious mismatches with small cornerbacks getting beat very very badly. From a fantasy standpoint, see if you can start a wide receiver against the Dallas defense. From a betting perspective, the weak Dallas pass defense means that good passing teams should shred them, probably more than public perception will show. Especially teams playing from behind (like SF this week) with any sort of passing attack. Look for teams with decent passing threats to cover down the road where Dallas might be a favorite.

Cleveland @ Indy - well, its unlikely we're going to see spreads this one-sided with Indy again. Its pretty obvious now that the Indy defense is for real, and that Peyton isn't concerned in the slightest about his numbers, only winning games. Look for Edge to have a much bigger year than expected, and Peyton to underperform dramatically from last year's highs. Look for the Colts to win a lot of games this year - with the strong defense and a potent offense they're a real force to be reckoned with. They've played consistent ball control offense so keep an eye on unders and situations where the Colts are favored but against teams who can cover.

Other games:

Cincy @ Chicago: Cincy has done a phenominal job of creating turnovers so far. This has been the gateway to their sucess. Look for matchups with turnover happy teams down the road, giving those extra possessions to such a potent offensive threat should result in a lot of "extra" scoring. For the Bears, Kyle Orton is going to continue to turn the ball over a lot this year. Bears defense looked good but not great against the best offense they'd faced to date.

Oakland @ Philly: McNabb certainly looks like he's hampered by his injuries. While the Eagles are still a potent team, I'll continue to look for the Eagles to underperform against teams they should beat badly. The Raiders are dramatically underperforming so far this year - both Moss and Porter aren't having anywhere near the years expected of them. However, the Raiders at 0-3 are going to be a dangerous team, so I look for them to be playing agressively the next two weeks. Turner is demonstrating that he's developing another solid rusher in Jordan. Look for the Raiders to under-achieve in terms of public perception of points scored.

More later if I've got time, while the games are still fresh...

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

[/ QUOTE ] Green Bay is having problems on both sides of the line. This is really leading to their troubles. Ahman Green looks like crap. Favre has really been playing well, the team is just too bad to overcome his mistakes.

Tampa Bay is really confusing to me right now. Cadillac is running well, but I worry about if he can take the pounding. He wasn't even playing full time in college. The Bucs defense looks like, well the Bucs defense. You know how to beat them, but not a lot of teams can. I'm wondering how long it will be before Griese wakes up and goes back to his old self.

[ QUOTE ]
Vikings vs New Orleans

[/ QUOTE ]
I posted in the start of the year "When should you start fading the Saints" The answer is right now. I don't think they win another game until that first game at LSU. Their defense is weak against the run. They have problems with concentration and giving up big plays. They just look like a team that is tired and worn down.

The Vikings are still bad. I love Mewelde Moore (have since I had him for three games last year on my fantasy team) I think he is the best running back on that team. The problem is how will they run against a solid run defense? Their O-line is not giving Culpepper time. His fumbling problem is really going to cause them some problems down the road. This team is going to struggle to win 7 or 8 games.

[ QUOTE ]
Dallas at Frisco

[/ QUOTE ] The Cowboys make me scratch my head. They look like one of those teams that plays to their competition. These are good teams to fade when they are giving points. Julius Jones is another guy I'm not sure can make it through a whole season of pounding.

San Fran looks like they will be in some games this year. It is just a matter of finding games where other teams will take them lightly.

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland @ Indy

[/ QUOTE ] I give up on Indy. You have to think at some point the offense stops sleep walking and just starts to run up some points. If they don't they will be in trouble, because that defense will not be able to play that well against the run all year.

I like Cleveland alot this year. Romeo is doing a good job and I think they won't give up on him. Which makes them better than last year.

[ QUOTE ]
Cincy @ Chicago

[/ QUOTE ]
The Bengals defense was really playing the pass well. I know it was Kyle Orton, but Tory James has been good for the past few years and Deltha O'Neal looks like he stoppped taking smack or whatever he was doing. This team is going to get rolled by the Steelers. They won't be able to beat a team that runs the ball well and doesn't turn it over and that plays good D. The Bears gave them the ball 6 times and they were only able to score on 3 of them. That's pretty impressive by the Bears D.

The Bengals offense is real good and will score a lot of points this year. In other news, the sky is blue.

The Bears will win games this year when their defense can generate good field position for the offense. When Orton is forced to go the length of the field he will struggle. The kid has some balls though. And if the Bears just had a quarterback that could do that last year they would have won 3-4 more games.

[ QUOTE ]
Oakland @ Philly

[/ QUOTE ] The Eagles look like thier old self. They will find ways to win, but they will only roll bad teams. Reid still throws the ball too much. But, their defense is real good and is improved against the run.

Oakland just plays a nasty schedule and they are not good enough on defense to stop anyone. For all of the bitching I think they have looked good on offense. Collins has been smart and isn't forcing too many balls which has lead to a lot of interceptions in the past. He kind of looks like Randel Cunningham when he "figured it out" in MIN.

[ QUOTE ]



Especially teams playing from behind (like SF this week) with any sort of passing attack.



[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed you said that San Fran was able to pass cause they were playing from behind this was not the case, Dallas scored 15 4th quarter points to win...it was Dallas playing from behind not San Fran.

[Page Jacobson]

[ QUOTE ]
Turner is demonstrating that he's developing another solid rusher in Jordan

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this. The Raiders had 2nd and 1 once and gave it to Jordan up the middle, he decided to break it outside and was dumped for a 3 yard loss and there was a hole for him inside.

I'm not a fan of Collins either. Also with players like Moss on the team I can see chemistry falling apart. I think Oakland is a play against.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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Turner is demonstrating that he's developing another solid rusher in Jordan



[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree too. Jordan had something like 19 yards on 16 carries yesterday and really hasn't shown much in any game yet. I have real doubts he's more than a decent backup.

[MookieBlaylock]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

[/ QUOTE ] Green Bay is having problems on both sides of the line. This is really leading to their troubles. Ahman Green looks like crap. Favre has really been playing well, the team is just too bad to overcome his mistakes.



[/ QUOTE ]

Favre hasnt played that well this year. He is still trying to force the ball into impossibly tight openings. He has put up some pretty good stats, but only because the Packers have been trailing since week one and they have been forced to throw constantly. Green has looked bad, but again, when you team is constantly trailing you cant establish the run.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
Favre hasnt played that well this year. He is still trying to force the ball into impossibly tight openings.

[/ QUOTE ] Sorry if you have been watching too much of the media blowing Favre, but this has been his career.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree too. Jordan had something like 19 yards on 16 carries yesterday and really hasn't shown much in any game yet. I have real doubts he's more than a decent backup.


[/ QUOTE ] 275 total yards in three weeks. Two touchdowns. Before a tough week vs. the Eagles he was averaging 4 yards a carry.

[FishNChips]

Nice post Jedi.

Things I learned:

1 - I'm an idiot and I'm a member of the BSP group. The small deposit I made on Pinny would have been better being burned to warm my bathroom in December.

2 - We still don't know who the real Dolphins are, we still don't know who the real panthers are, we don't know who the real Chargers are (as a fan I sure as hell hope its the week3 version!)

3 - The Patriots are not to be messed with. Its hard to put on paper why they are so good, but they are. They lost Harrison and made a comeback after that. Wow! Cowher is a bad game management coach.

4 - The Chiefs really are bad on the road, The Broncos are REALLY good at home.

5 - The Bears probably have enough to win ATS when they play mediocre or bad offensive teams, but they are going to struggle against anyone that can put points on the board.

6 - Cincy still hasn't convinced me. They've played 3 bad teams. I liked the previous poster's (or maybe another thread) comments about turnovers for the Bengals and how they aren't likely to continue at their current pace (+12 or something like that after 3 games is crazy!). I'll give them a close look this week, but I'm still not convinced.

That is all I claim to know,
FishNChips
1-6-1 (-$1600) in 3+1 challenge
0-3 (-3units) in actual wagers

[Webster]

[ QUOTE ]
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

[/ QUOTE ]

Favre is playing like he always has. Green has no "O" line yet and are still coming togather. The "D" stopped the TB running game and actually did a good job against the pass.

The only reason they lost was because of kicking.

With THAT said. This is a classic GB team that will improve as the year goes on. You might not like Sherman but the guy does have a knack for putting a team together AS the year goes on. He's good at moving players around.

BTW - they beat the spread - moral victory :-) for me!

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

[/ QUOTE ]

Favre is playing like he always has. Green has no "O" line yet and are still coming togather. The "D" stopped the TB running game and actually did a good job against the pass.

The only reason they lost was because of kicking.

With THAT said. This is a classic GB team that will improve as the year goes on. You might not like Sherman but the guy does have a knack for putting a team together AS the year goes on. He's good at moving players around.

BTW - they beat the spread - moral victory :-) for me!

[/ QUOTE ]

Seeign as how you took Aaron Rodgers last year do you think you will take Leinhart #1 this year?

[kyro]

I learned I suck at sports betting.

[Indiana]

[ QUOTE ]
I learned I GET LUCKY at sports betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indy

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
it was Dallas playing from behind not San Fran.

[/ QUOTE ] You're right, of course. I must have been thinking back to last week. I still think the analysis is correct however - Dallas has been torched deep a lot and I look for their secondary to continue to underperform public perception especially in regards to opportunities for underdogs to cover with late passing attacks.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it was Dallas playing from behind not San Fran.

[/ QUOTE ] You're right, of course. I must have been thinking back to last week. I still think the analysis is correct however - Dallas has been torched deep a lot and I look for their secondary to continue to underperform public perception especially in regards to opportunities for underdogs to cover with late passing attacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

No agrument here about that. Brandon Lloyd looked like Rashaun Woods was supposed to.

[CarlSpackler]

Dallas v. 49ers -- The Cowboys secondary is horrendous. CB Anthony Henry didn't just get beat for a couple of tds, he got absolutely torched. As far as the big free agent signings this last offseason go, he appears to be the biggest bust thus far. I think Parcells gave him like 5 years/25 million. Big mistake. I was actually pretty surprised that Dallas managed to win this game, considering they were coming off a short week with their Monday night debacle, and they had to make the trip to the west coast. This is actually a big character building win for the crackwagon. Had they lost to the 49ers, you could of stuck a fork in them. As far as San Fran goes, thus far it looks like they're going to be pretty competitive when playing at home.

Bengal v. Bears -- You can pretty much cut and paste everything I said about the Bengals in last week's thread and just substitute Chicago for Minnesota. The Bengals are for real. They have one of the top offenses in the league, and for the second week in a row their defense forced 5 or more turnovers.

Chiefs v. Broncos -- Priest Holmes doesn't look 100%. He looked a half-step slow. The loss of T Willie Roaf has exacerbated this problem. The Chiefs desperately need him to get back in the lineup.

Jake Plummer has improved his play from week 1 to week2 and from week 2 to week 3. Shanahan has noted that it's a QB's 3rd year in the west coast offense when they feel comfortable and begin to have peak performance. Keep an eye on Plummer's play, because if he continues to play mistake free like he did last night (except for that one badly underthrown ball to Lelie), the Broncos should win the AFC West. Champ Bailey's injury, however, is a big concern. If Champ misses a game, I would seriously downgrade Denver.

Redskins v. Bye week -- Washington is undefeated and alone in 1st place in the NFC East.

[Easy E]

Besides "Broncos pwn Chiefs at home" ... I've learned that we haven't learned anything yet about the teams after 3 weeks. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

The Steelers look good, but I'm guessing that the Pats will also score some points. If the under falls instead, put the Steel City at the top of the AFC pack.

That cause-fumble/big-return/big-pass/stupid-lateral was a bigger series than I expected. Good call on my part favoring the Steelers (the "Pittsburgh Colts" when they play the Pats) /images/graemlins/frown.gif

The Eagles may be a bit of a homer pick, but at home they generate a lot of points and I think Oakland should be able to score a few points. If they fall apart again, I don't know if the Boids can go over all by themselves.

If I had known the extent of the injuries to Ackers and McNabb, I probably would have gone with the under. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

As badly as the Cards have performed, and they're on the road... I'll take the under

Or they can perform so badly that the Seahawks almost cover on their own /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I was planning on riding the Chiefs D again, especially against the poorly-performing horsies. When natedogg came out so strongly for the under, I moved it all the way up.
This of course means the Chiefs get busted big-time

Talk about being 100% spot-on! /images/graemlins/grin.gif I told everyone that the Chiefs D would be able to contain the Broncos.... to 3x their per-game scoring average. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif Did you catch that jinx warning at the end? Without me, would natedogg's "lock" have come in? I doubt it! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

by the way, natedogg, I owe you one. Not only did you save my 3+1 week, you let my 2 unit bet on the under limit my week's real losses to the vig. Thank you thank you thank you! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
Chiefs v. Broncos -- Priest Holmes doesn't look 100%. He looked a half-step slow. The loss of T Willie Roaf has exacerbated this problem. The Chiefs desperately need him to get back in the lineup.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a lot of talk about a "secret" (hidden?) Priest injury in the local media. Nothing official yet, including my one source inside the locker room and local sports anchor (who usually has a great deal of Chiefs dirt before anyone else). I'll let everyone know if anything comes up more concrete. But with Larry Johnson behind him, Priest going down would actually increase the explosiveness of the offense (at the cost of a few extra fumbles and decreased performance around the goal line).

You're not exagerating in the slightest about Roaf. Black is doing a terrible job at replacing him - reviewing the MNF film, i couldn't keep track of the number of times you'd find Black being pushed in to the backfield / right in to the hole.

[CCx]

What I learned in week 3:

Oakland at Philadelphia:

Twice now I've cost myself a lot of money with the Eagles by going to the bar early, getting hammered, and not paying close enough attention to pregame shows and late injury reports (this game Akers, Walker - MNF game Trotter). Of course I could logon to any online sportsbook from my Treo and place another wager, but with this information coming so close to kickoff, combined with being super duper wasted, outlook not so good. If I was sitting at home on my ass watching the games, the world would be at my fingertips. This is also another game, like MNF, where even though a lot of things went wrong they were still in the game, and this time they won. Starting Oakland from their own 40 or better on every kickoff, they should have lost this game by 10 or more points - another testament to their solid defense. McNabb's ability to run is severely diminished due to injury, best shown by the fact that he leads the league in passing through 3 games, and has about 2 rushing yards in those 3 games. Oh yea, and L.J. Smith fumbling on the 2 yard line in the 4th quarter when they could have went up 27-13 ripped my god damn heart out. Next week I'm staying as far away from that game as possible, but depending on the injury status, loading up the following week vs. Dallas (the week 5 -3 line is tempting, but so hard to think about because if McNabb continues to take shots like he's been doing, who the hell knows)

New Orleans at Minnesota:

I thought I had the over on LOCK after the first quarter, but like typical teams in the NFL, it became sweat sweat sweat until it was sealed in the 4th. Both of these teams are absolutely friggin' terrible. New Orleans has gone about 3 years too long with Aaron Brooks - they are not a tough team to stop when Joe Horn is their only legitimate receiving threat, and McAllister is suffering from contract hangover. As for Culpepper, he still may end up with more INT's than TD's this year - he's going to need to find a different way to win games (with his feet, maybe?) than throwing the ball now without both Moss and Burleson. By the way, in case no one got the memo, Burleson sucks. Memo #2: they have no running game. Going to be a long year for the purple guys.

Cleveland at Indy:

Just like KC unders (3-for-3), I dont know how much longer the Indy unders are going to continue to be good bets. Last year the overs were solid because they had no defense, AND ran up the score - so games like 45-31 were expected. Vegas seems to be catching on a bit with this week's line, but maybe one more week can be squeezed out of this. Proving the rock-solid BSP theory could be illustrated at every bar in America on Sunday, where dismayed bettors were slackjawed at "HOW THE HELL COULD INDY NOT COVER".

Dallas at San Francisco:

Easiest.
Game.
Ever.

New York at San Diego:

The Giants defense has been exposed, and San Diego quarterback Drew Brees relearned the proper handoff technique to LT. Both trends should be looked at carefully for Week 4.

Speaking of week 4... it's almost here, woohoo! /images/graemlins/grin.gif