[30/3] AK in the big blind on the bubble

[paperboyNC]

UTG is very aggressive (35/27/3). I have no fold equity and the SB is a very very short stack.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1400)
UTG (t3200)
Button (t2895)
SB (t505)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ?

[schwza]

i think that pushing is wrong. you're 66% vs a random hand, so maybe 60% against his range. i can't do icm in my head, but i'm guessing that's a bad gamble for you.

so the choices are call or fold. if you call, i think your line has to be check if you hit and push if you miss. he'll be in there with some junky cards, so a lot of times you'll both miss, you bet, and he has to fold. very roughly: you miss 2/3. of that, he will fold 1/2. so you make a pair 1/3, he folds to your push 1/3, and 1/3 he calls and you usually have 25% to win, but sometimes you're ahead.

i think this is the first time i've advocated a sng, but i'd do it.

[pineapple888]

Well, it's not a stop-n-go if you're checking when you miss.

The call is an interesting idea, but I think it doesn't quite get there. 2/3 of the time, you are down to 800 chips with this line.

You are middle stack, will have &gt;8BB after folding, and have a hand that is great for pushing but not very good for calling a push (which is essentially what you would be doing here if you don't fold.)

Fold.

I misread the post above -- now I see what you are saying -- you check when you *hit*, hoping to check-raise. Maybe this is a good strategy after all. But it still would have trouble beating a fold, I think.