Winning Poker Move? Or Rigid Text Book Over Efficiency?

[Legenda]

Tell me what you think of this play, it provides an interesting little anicdote and some light relief from my constant binge poker paradise life style (as the grip of gambling and broadband connection descends on my predisposed to gambling existence)

Anyway, I was playing in Middlesborough last night, on the $1-2 pot limit games as normal, brought in for a tonne and a half and started playing as normal. The difference was there was some new boys; bad players, playing every single hand. And other difference, I couldn't miss. Every gutshot draw, two to a flush, high card everything. They were playing every hand and I was winning everyone. I was playing pots to loose cash, it was almost embarrassing.

So the night went on the the guys kept on buying in for more cash and I was uptp £5k. The money was still infront of me, as are the rules of gentlemanly poker. So then came the hand. Most guys are in for more chips, and most of them now have about a grand, but one of the guys, who has been lucky too but plays well, has about 4.5k. I'm dealt AA on the button, awesome I think, here come another monster. The blinds are now 2-4, and the games moved to no limit. This is aggressive stuff and I'm out of my depth, but I'm up (massively) so all's good. Two raises and it's £50 to play. Nice one I'm taking this down.

So I raise. Call the £50, and make it £250 to play. Then came the crunch guy on the big blind, calls the £250 and does all in for £4500, there are two calls for about £1k each all in and then to me. £5k is alot of cash and I'm way out of my depth. What my play? My hearts all over the place? Interesting... hmmm ...... I can leave now and win move cash that I even have ahh....

I'll write back later with what i did..... /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[lorinda]

Tough one, I think you have to consider what you will be doing with the £5k

If you are going to be gambling with it again, then I don't see any problem with calling the bet as you only have to beat one opponent for a tidy looking 6-7k pot with a freeroll at the whole lot..

Obviously you _Should_ call as a long term play, but I can see how you can consider folding and either trying to catch the guy later, or leaving the table (muttering to yourself that if you were not going to gamble the 5k you should have left a while ago!) with a great result.

Personally I call, and then pray to the Poker Gods for "Please, just let me win the big sidepot".

Lori

[Nottom]

This is all pre-flop? If you can't go all-in with AA, what are you waiting for? Easy call, even if one of the small stacks sucks out on you, you are probably a huge favorite over the big stack and should still make some money on the hand..

[RiverMel]

You're missing the point. He never wanted to gamble with this much money.

[Hotchile]

"Personally I call, and then pray to the Poker Gods for "Please, just let me win the big sidepot".

First, I leave the poker gods out of it. Nothing good can come from consorting with them.

Second, I take about 30 seconds to evaluate my next 3 minutes. Biggest question, "if I lose this pot, will I be able to keep my lunch down or will I be in search of the tallest building in Manhattan?". All you need to know, is whether or not you could handle the loss and if you suffered it, could you stand up and walk away from the table or would you immediately tilt off your rent money?.

Tell the truth, my deciding factor would be "could I keep it from my wife?" If she found out that I was up 5K and lost it in one pot............well, I'd rather not think about that /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

HC

[RollaJ]

You have to call!, you are most likely up against KK or QQ with an outside chance of AKs from The 5k raiser, against any hand you are a significant favorite.

As for Hotchiles comment "will I be in search of the tallest building in Manhattan?"......... 34st and 5th ave, the Empire State Building is once again the tallest building in the city.

[picabo]

I can certainly understand the thoughts that must be racing through your mind but you are in the enviable position of having several players go allin preflop ahead of you and you have the best hand AND you can cover them all. What other scenario is better? If you werent playing for this opportunity then you should have quit sooner. I call and wait to take down my personal grand slam gamewinning home run the majority of the time and have a hell of a story regardless of the outcome!! /forums/images/icons/cool.gif

[MS Sunshine]

You have already made one mistake by having too much on the table to be objective about how to play. Don't make another by folding.

Whatever happens quit for the night.

MS Sunshine

[lorinda]

If you werent playing for this opportunity then you should have quit sooner.

The problem here is that it only dawned on the poster that he probably should have quit sooner lest this situation arise when it arose, it would be a mistake to acknowledge that he should have quit earlier and then call because of it.

If he now realises he should have quit earlier, he should make the best of a bad job and quit now, calling when this would be a high building jump if he lost would be making the "mistake" worse.

I'm still hoping he won the sidepot, but I forgot the poker gods are now patented material /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif
Lori

[lorinda]

Another possibility that is allowed in some clubs in England would be to save a portion of the last bet, your opponent would be more than glad to "pay you off" some percentage of the extra bet, something like "Give me 500, and we take our bets back" would have been a possibility by showing him the aces after you call, of course then you are gambling on the sidepot, but thats ok

Lori

[Emperor]

As long as you had him covered I would call. If not I would pull the ol' western trick an say, "I'll put up this deed to my ranch."

Anyways... If you lose you can always roll him in the parking lot. :P

[LondonBroil]

I really hope you called. This is the kind of situation I dream about.

[RollaJ]

Didnt he buy in for 3k? Why so much worry all of a sudden over 5k?

[Legenda]

Bought in for £150

[picabo]

I agree with what Lorinda said about not knowing he would be in this position until he got there but I still think that you make this call 100% of the time. So tell us what happened already!! /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If you folded, you have no business calling yourself a poker player.

[Inthacup]

If you folded, you have no business calling yourself a poker player.

I don't necessarily agree. Everyone has limits. If he's content saying: I've won almost $7000 tonight, I will never get a shot at winning this much again, I'm going to call it quits.

I find nothing wrong with that. In any case, he must leave the game. He has too much in front of him that he's not willing to risk(as evidence of this hand) and should leave happy.

That being said, I'd call. If you lose it all, you're no worse off than when you sat down. In fact, you're still have 500 pounds when you bought in for only 150. That's still a good win. If you double up, then cash out and enjoy the money. Buy a car or something. But whatever you do, DO NOT keep playing.

[GrannyMae]

I can leave now and win move cash that I even have ahh....

you admitted to being out of your league as far as the levels of money being moved around.

if i am you, i slide them 2 bullets in the muck, and get the hell outta dodge. my advice/opinion changes if it were just you and other big stack, but the 2 callers make it 4 way, and the value of them aces take a dive. easy choice for me.

http://emoticons4u.informationalot.com/cool/609.gif

[ThePinkBunny]

for the simple fact that if you read his post again, you'll find that the other callers had much shorter stacks in comparison to him and other big stack, so I think your advice should be the same for him regardless of the other two callers.

And the value of the aces doesn't take a dive with multiple callers. his expectation has actually increased even though his chance of winning has decreased.

D

[DaNoob]

This thread is more suspenseful than 24. WHAT HAPPENED?

[GrannyMae]

his expectation has actually increased even though his chance of winning has decreased.

i don't disagree with this at all. however, the other 2 callers had 1k each, so i don't dismiss them as having garbage since their calls were all in.

i probably should have explained my thinking more.

first, there were new faces there. i don't trust new faces in big bet games until they prove themselves to be totally independant.

second, my reasoning was solely based on the fact that 5k (pounds) is a TON of money to this poster. the 2 aces on the button would have been a wake up call to me, effectively snapping me out of my "can't lose" mentality that he had morphed into. i'm simply looking at the fact that he was not pot commited, and was lucky enough to have position that allowed him to release before HE was pot commited.

certainly the proposition is favorable to the OP, but the realities of the 5k win, and what it meant to him if he could lock it up, is what makes me say he should throw all the odds, poker theory and greed out the window.

5k is a TON of dough to alot of people, and it superceeds (sp?) the strength of his call..

remember that even an 80% favorite MUST lose one out of 5 times, and his actual odds are really much lower with 4 in the pot. i'm looking at the repercussions of the loss on his personal finances, state of mind, and confidence he could gain by booking the huge win without having to commit it all preflop.

i respect and understand everyones viewpoint, but this situation should be looked at as a short term, life-changing win that could be negated by one pot.

has anyone thought about the fact that he may have been playing for a chop at best?

the decision to rack up should have been made before this hand was dealt. don't make the mistake of playing just because AA fell on your lap. booking a win like this may instill confidences that could lead to a life of winning poker that surpasses his potential gain for the session. taking a beat could turn him off the game for life.

dump the aces, take the win and take the walk.

jmho

http://www.techhelpers.net/e4u/animal/927.gif

[ThePinkBunny]

I understand what you're saying, and I agree that folding here is a legitimate option to be considered here.

What I don't agree with is your statement...

my advice/opinion changes if it were just you and other big stack

Since it is just him and the big stack for the majority of the pot 4k a piece, I think your advice/opinion shouldn't change if it were just him and the big stack. So if you're saying he should run now, he should grab his loot and run in either case.

And it definately does sound like a case where he might be giving up some immediate +EV, because losing could be devastating to his future EV. (But I like how you put it better /forums/images/icons/wink.gif )

D

[ThePinkBunny]

this post is interesting and it makes me wonder if there is a third option other than call or fold.

I don't know what the players in the game are like or how liberal the house is in their policies, but what if he had turned his hand over here (might be allowed since he's closing the action?) and try to make some kind of deal.

Just a thought

D

[RiverMel]

If you've decided you don't want to call for the full 5,000: fake diabetic shock, and therby go "all-in" a la online disconnect.

[yct]

if i am you, i slide them 2 bullets in the muck, and get the hell outta dodge. my advice/opinion changes if it were just you and other big stack, but the 2 callers make it 4 way, and the value of them aces take a dive. easy choice for me.

I would not worry about those two small stacks too much, because as long as you beat the other big stack, you will be the big winner. You can almost ignore the other two small stacks, and think of it as heads up, and what hand would you rather have than AA at this moment.

[GrannyMae]

Since it is just him and the big stack for the majority of the pot 4k a piece, I think your advice/opinion shouldn't change if it were just him and the big stack

i agree.

however, i looked at this by picturing myself sitting on the button and watching it unfold from his eyes. big stack throws it all in. my mind says "ok, this could mean a double up, or i could put all this 'found' windfall back.

as i am thinking this, i see 2 players in between us shove their entire stacks in as well. they were 1k stacks, not 100 stacks. as i watch this unfold, by the time it is my turn to act, i have a more realistic feel of what has/is happening. when it gets to me, my decision making process has changed entirely by the reality of the additional callers.

finally, fwiw, i have seen the question "when to fold aces" discussed for 20 years. the closest i come to agreeing to dump them is the ladder move in a big payout tourney that would insure moving up a wrung. in that discussion, i'm still ambivalent as to whether i would lay them down. the difference of course is that in a tourney, your entry fee is all you can lose, and that has been commited already. therefore, i'm not sure i would dump them unless it was the BIG DANCE.

i love this scenario the OP presented, because it is the first time i have looked at this question where it was presented the way it was. i think it has posed the question in such a way that a "poker answer" may be the last guideline i would use in making the decision to call or not.

BTW, if Legenda does not post his action soon, i vote that we kick his ass.

http://e4u.deltait.com.au/sport/sport25.gif

[ThePinkBunny]

And the great thing about it is no one would accuse you abusing your 'allin' since you have the preflop nuts.

D

[ThePinkBunny]

BTW, if Legenda does not post his action soon, i vote that we kick his ass.

No [censored], I'll pin his arms for ya gran.

D

[offTopic]

Do you have any pressing expenses? Family members need vital medication? House/car payments due?

If the 5K is "more cash than you even have", and you have immediate need of the money, then you muck, leave, and pay your bills or whatever.

Otherwise, shove it in...if the worst happens, you're still up L350, and you would've been happy with that heading into the cardroom, right?

Either way, MS Sunshine is right. Regardless of what happens, leave. You'll either be so euphoric or so depressed, that you likely won't make another good decision for at least a day.

[MS Sunshine]

Longest slow-roll on this forum to date.

MS Sunshine

[RiverMel]

Seriously. Post the results already.

[adam74]

...and I've got no fingernails left. /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif But as Legenda is based in the UK, a reply might not appear too soon, since it's 3:15 am over here.

Another question for Legenda - is this the Teeside Gala? If so, do the 1/2 games get going frequently, and is it HE only? Last time I was there, the only game was dealer's choice with 5/5 blinds. And I heard that the games are self-dealt now as well - a change for the worse, for sure.

[beernutz]

I'm going to take a stab and say you folded. Or else you used the $10K you won as a buy in to the big show.

Cut the crap and tell us already.

[lorinda]

I definately call now, he had the other two aces didnt he.

Lori

[adam74]

I definately call now, he had the other two aces didnt he.

And one of you hit a flush.

[RollaJ]

This is kind of funny from a naive American /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif
I figured 1 ton=2000 lbs., so 1 and a half tonnes must be 3k lbs.... /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif .

I might try to sell a piece of the hand (take insurance) if its allowed in that club.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Here's why I made the statement. He wrote:

"The blinds are now 2-4, and the games moved to no limit. This is aggressive stuff and I'm out of my depth, but I'm up (massively) so all's good. Two raises and it's £50 to play. Nice one I'm taking this down."

OK. So it went to no-limit and he stayed in, knowing he was out of his depth, but he looked at his stack size and thought, "I can do this.' He is dealt the aces and starts licking his chops. Let's stop for a moment and go back to when (whenever) it changed from Pot Limit to No Limit. *That* is his go/no-go decision point. Now he's in the hand and liking the aces. The money goes in and he's still the favorite. Being a poker player as opposed to a gambler means recognizing when you have the best of it and committing your chips to that course of action. (I'm paraphrasing the Fossilman here)

He's in a dream situation. he's turned 150 into 5000 and is a huge favorite to double that. It's not like he's taking the 5K and putting it on a color at the roulette wheel, or on the pass line at a craps table or even putting it on one hand of blackjack. He's the favorite and if he loses, he's only stuck 150 from when he walked in. Maybe the rational thing to do was to walk away ahead 5000 when the stakes changed to no-limit. He didn't. He *can't* walk away now.

I'd be sweating just as much in his shoes, but I couldn't walk away even if I could rack my chips and leave before seeing what cards flopped. I certainly couldn't fold and then stay and watch.

A poker player gets his money in the center when he's getting the best of it and folds when he isn't. If our hero is a poker player, he calls. Hey, I guess he can call himself anything he wants, but if he folds, he ain't a poker player.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

True enough. At today's exchange rates, that 10K is $16K US.

[picabo]

LMAO, lets dogpile him!! Seriously I started picturing myself in that position and it would represent a pretty good session and there are good arguments for walking away BUT I would never be able to live with myself if I mucked and watched the hand and realized I would have won. Not sure if I could live with myself if I mucked and it turned out they would have lost! /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif

[picabo]

[PseudoPserious]

I don't know what Middlesborough is.

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Is it an internet site? (I don't think it is from the tone of the post, but this is the Internet forum.)

If so, I call happily.

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Is this a home game in the town/region/general area of Middlesborough?

If so, my pucker factor would be huge...I'd be worried that one of the new faces was running a cheat, although admittedly it's an odd way to run a scam. But that's probably what I'd be thinking as I mucked my AA and cashed out.

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Is this at a casino in Middlesborough?

I'd call if it was a house dealer, and probably fold if it was a player-dealt game. Maybe I'm too scared of cheaters. But, yeah, no matter what I do this is my last hand of the night.

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PP