Late stage strategy--11s and 22s

[Cactus Jack]

After doing a lot of reading of the posts, I find I play a very different game from many of you. It seems many players push every chance they get. I do not.

In the later stages of the tourney, say the blinds are up around 100/200 with say 5 players left, I'm aggressively playing many more hands than I did earlier, and trying to steal as often as I can, not because I'm trying to build a large stack, but to keep chips out of the hands of my opponents, esp the shorter stacks. I want the blinds to put pressure on them.

But, when it comes bubble time or 3 handed, I change gears again. I'm looking to trap. In another thread, 4 left, the hand was AK in the SB and two people in for a limp and reraise. The general consensus was push the AK. I call. I'm looking to trap one or both for their whole stack and get ITM. If the flop comes A or K, that's exactly what I'll probably do.

If my opponents think I'm getting tight because on the bubble, good. If they think I'm weak/tight, all the better. If they think they can push me off a good hand, I'm delighted. I'm looking to win, not just accumulate chips. All I need is one or two opportunities to bust them, and that's what I'm looking for. Controlled aggression. Smart poker.

Am I wrong with this strategy?

CJ

[ QUOTE ]
After doing a lot of reading of the posts, I find I play a very different game from many of you. It seems many players push every chance they get. I do not.

In the later stages of the tourney, say the blinds are up around 100/200 with say 5 players left, I'm aggressively playing many more hands than I did earlier, and trying to steal as often as I can, not because I'm trying to build a large stack, but to keep chips out of the hands of my opponents, esp the shorter stacks. I want the blinds to put pressure on them.

But, when it comes bubble time or 3 handed, I change gears again. I'm looking to trap. In another thread, 4 left, the hand was AK in the SB and two people in for a limp and reraise. The general consensus was push the AK. I call. I'm looking to trap one or both for their whole stack and get ITM. If the flop comes A or K, that's exactly what I'll probably do.

If my opponents think I'm getting tight because on the bubble, good. If they think I'm weak/tight, all the better. If they think they can push me off a good hand, I'm delighted. I'm looking to win, not just accumulate chips. All I need is one or two opportunities to bust them, and that's what I'm looking for. Controlled aggression. Smart poker.

Am I wrong with this strategy?

CJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling a raise on the bubble with AK is terrible.

AK is the exact hand you want to push. You are almost never an underdog, and if you are its only a slight one (coinflip).

If you plan on pushing any A or K flop, just push right now. You are going to be mad when buddy with QK suited goes allin on the 10 high flop and you are forced to fold.

If you arent pushing AK on the bubble, I am curious, what are you pushing??

[the_joker]

I agree with BlueTooth about AK on the bubble. You want to see all five cards with AK, not just the flop.

If you play like everyone else, then I guess you'll at most only be as profitable as everyone else, so trying new stuff is good. What's your ROI and how many tournaments have you played? Then I'll tell you if your strategy is wrong /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[helpmeout]

Remember players will freeze up if they see an ace and a king on the flop.

No reason for a low pair or KQ to call a large bet on the flop when they dont improve and the flop is scary.

Also when neither of you improve, you do not know where you stand but he has the initiative. So a hand like AT can win on the flop unimproved because he has initiative. Surely you arent going to call a large flop bet unimproved?

When an Ace flops you really only trap hands that you have dominated anyway that would likely call an allin bet preflop regardless.

[GtrHtr]

I think that generally, your strategy is fine. In your example, you need to calculate the value of AK. You will find that hands like AK are worth more pushing PF than playing post flop in the long run.

[Cactus Jack]

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If you arent pushing AK on the bubble, I am curious, what are you pushing??

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing. Or, it depends. I don't believe anyone can make a blanket statement about what they would do when much of what you will do depends on when you would do it. (Wow, that might be too convoluted.) The point of my strategy is that I don't hold with the all or nothing strategy I keep reading. Someone said, "tight early and pushin everything late will win at most levels." Push bot, or anything approaching a bot way of playing isn't how to get better, imho, which is the whole point of a forum, again, imho. Not the reason I participate, anyway.

Ok, so now I've confused myself. Hopefully, it will get sorted out as we go along. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

CJ

Your AK is a signifigant favorite over most hands, we'll generize this to 70%, by just calling a t600 raise you expect to gain a little more than 400. Or you can push in your 2000 stack and expect to win 1400 or so...the point is your passing up on ALOT of chips.

[Cactus Jack]

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I think that generally, your strategy is fine. In your example, you need to calculate the value of AK. You will find that hands like AK are worth more pushing PF than playing post flop in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. However, substitute KQ for AK. This would change the numbers, but not the philosophy. I see many guys who are pushing at times that make me scratch my head. I see guys pushing early for 90TC. I see players pushing so often that it no longer seems to be a thoughtful strategy at all. One time, a guy typed, "that works every time but the last time." Sure enough, he or I--don't remember which--busted the guy shortly when he pushed Jx or T9 and ran into AA. As long as I am above 8BB, I'm not pushing as a rule.

CJ

[the_joker]

I don't recall any strategy that says pushing everything. Some situations you may push any two cards, but pushing every hand late is obviously bad.

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't recall any strategy that says pushing everything. Some situations you may push any two cards, but pushing every hand late is obviously bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it possible to summarize strategies for late stages?

Weak--pray they knock each other out and happy with ITM
Tight--wait for good hands much like earlier levels and pray the LAGs knock each other out
Loose--push or fold
TAG--?

What I'm looking for is what is Smart TAG poker in the late stages.

CJ

[the_joker]

The generally accepted strategy is to follow ICM (Independent Chip Model) theories for play in the late stages. You can use this (http://www.sitngo-analyzer.com) software to help you get a feel for different situations. Of course, there are probably exceptions and potentially better strategies, but this is a good place to start.

[GtrHtr]

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I think that generally, your strategy is fine. In your example, you need to calculate the value of AK. You will find that hands like AK are worth more pushing PF than playing post flop in the long run.

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True. However, substitute KQ for AK. This would change the numbers, but not the philosophy. I see many guys who are pushing at times that make me scratch my head. I see guys pushing early for 90TC. I see players pushing so often that it no longer seems to be a thoughtful strategy at all. One time, a guy typed, "that works every time but the last time." Sure enough, he or I--don't remember which--busted the guy shortly when he pushed Jx or T9 and ran into AA. As long as I am above 8BB, I'm not pushing as a rule.

CJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you just changed the whole dynamic by changing the hand from AK to KQ. In the other post, AKo is coming over the top of a raise, so basically calling a push, although not technically calling a push. Calling ranges should be much tighter than pushing ranges. I don't think that you need to push every J9s or QJo on the bubble IF you are able to maintain a 10xBB stack or so. You can perhaps take that down to 8xBB depending on the blind levels and the play at that table. When you get down to 5xBB you need to expand your pushing range accordingly.

[SonnyJay]

I don't fully understand what you're trying to do with your call of a raise with AK. I'm going to assume that you and your opponent are not pot committed with the raise and call, because if either of you are the money's going in regardless.

For the sake of argument I'm going to assume that you both have about 10xBB and he raised to 3xBB. The problems with calling are as follows:
* You're passing up an opportunity to take down 4.5 BB when you have 10 BB, which is a huge increase to your stack.
* You have no guarantee that he comes along for the ride if an A or K flops.
* If an A or K doesn't flop, what exactly is your plan?

Your trap allows him to outdraw you for nothing, push you off your hand if you whiff, or allow him to get away from his worse hand for nothing when you do hit.

You push this PF because you increase your stack by nearly 50% without confrontation when he folds. If you're called, you're racing against pocket pairs other than AA or KK and you're about 70% against a weaker A or K. This is in contrast to your example:
[ QUOTE ]
substitute KQ for AK. This would change the numbers, but not the philosophy. I see many guys who are pushing at times that make me scratch my head. I see guys pushing early for 90TC

[/ QUOTE ]
In this case he's increasing his stack by a small amount when everyone folds, he's racing against any pocket pair other than AA KK or QQ, and he's a dog to any A. No one is advocating this play.

This idea of winning chips without confrontation is big during the late stages. Playing solid poker is important, but with the blinds starting to consume your stack you begin to lose the ability to "play poker" and get tricky.

-SonnyJay

[Degen]

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Late stage strategy--11s and 22s

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Cactus, the AK example has nothing to do with what you're trying to accomplish. In this situation, your decision cannot include a call because the pot is so huge that even if an ace or king doesn't come on the flop, you still should call given the odds in the hopes that it's going to come on the turn or river or the possibility of the other guy bluffing with a lower ace that also missed.

So your decision is either all-in or fold, because you're gonna have to go all-in on the flop anyways and you might as well do it now since AK wants to see all 5 cards.

If you choose to fold, then you're playing exactly how the chipshovers want you to play. The whole point of chipshoving is so they win easy money from people who don't know when to push and when to call, which is commonplace at the lower levels. No matter how good you are post-flop, you will lose to the chipshovers if you don't push a hand this good.

By now you should see that being tight is a big mistake when the blinds are getting higher. I'm sure you heard before that solid conservative poker is to be tight on the start and then gradually loosen up as the blinds go up. The chipshovers (at least the good ones) are masters at knowing exactly how loose you need to be. If you can't make the adjustment yourself, it doesn't matter how good you are. The people that are not confident postflop are not going to let you play a single flop without having a good reason to do so(I.E. having a fantastic hand or a horrible hand in the blinds). The good players have a distinct advantage over you because they can play postflop AND they can make the adjustment preflop.

I think you misinterpreted what people meant when you should strive to be a TAG player. It means that your usual strategy should be TAG, not to be TAG regardless of what's going on around you. This is not the place to be TAG or else you're going to be blinded out. You should be very, very loose when the blinds are that high and your stack is that low.

Edit: By the way, the fact that you didn't say the blinds and stack sizes for your example already shows that you are not looking at the right thing. The general concensus was so one-sided towards a push because of these two factors.

Also, if you really want to be TAG, how are you planning to be aggressive here on the flop with your whopping 450 leftover chips when the pot is already 2100? And what kind of hand can the opponent hold that will not call your all-in before the flop with that kind of odds?

[Cactus Jack]

Great stuff, guys. Thanks. We're closing in on it here.

Ok, when I say TAG, I mean this is a higher grade of poker than your run of the mill. Think of the icons in PT. If the numbers shifted for early, middle and late in an SNG, you'd still be an Eagle, not a bomb or a mouse or an elephant. Your VP$iP will be higher as the tourney progresses, but not going into the stratosphere as far as how loose you get. Does that make sense? To me, TAG is not as much numbers but philosophy. Is K3 a playable hand? Yes...and no. It depends. If you play it at the right time, based upon your reads of your opponents, it may be a very TAG play. (+EV for you numbers guys.) Played in the wrong place, it's either LAG or fish.

A lot of players reading this board do very well indeed getting down to the bubble--last 4 or 5, but then they get a little lost because they've have to shift from ABC poker to much more feel, intuition, reads--which are simply informed guesses. We can discuss specific hands until the cows come home, but that hand will usually be for that time in that place. Change virtually any particular, and you've got a whole new ball game. Yet, that's exactly what happens every SNG you play.

A lot of players want to pooooooosh, and take their chances. I would rather have a lot better than 52/48 if I'm this far. "The secret to poker is not to win the most pots, but win the most money." Yet what I'm seeing with many posts here is win the most pots with pushing in every chance you get. As the guy said, "it works great every time but the last." You want that last time you push in to be the winning time, and that doesn't happen on the bubble. (All right, there is that ONE time when everybody gets a hand and they all go in and one guy wins it sucking out on the river.) Still with me here? You can't win an SNG on the first round. Everybody is ok with that. You can't win on the bubble, either.

I didn't specifically put in numbers, because to do so puts up trees when I'm trying to view an entire forest.

Finally, I really think the problem here, and it's specifically numbers is the difference in sites. Most of you guys play Party where 10k chips are distributed among 4 players with an avg of 2500 each. Blinds are THE most important thing to consider. I play PS and Bodog and Full Tilt. When it's down to the bubble, the blinds really don't factor for the top chip leaders. In fact, once I get down to 4 players, I don't even think about the blinds at all. Could this be why we're miscommunicating?

Again, thanks for the feedback and esp the respect you've shown me. I realize that I'm bordering on heresy here, and I appreciate I'm not getting flamed.

CJ

I think a problem here is you comment on the Party hands while still advocating your PS game

[Cactus Jack]

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I think a problem here is you comment on the Party hands while still advocating your PS game

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I thought. It just occurred to me that we're all playing different games here. Bummer. I guess it really reinforces my distaste for Party's lousy chip count. It's Party Poker's greed. Less chips, faster tourneys, more money. Bastidges.

Sorry, guys. I feel like I've wasted everyone's time.

Push or fold isn't poker. It's the lottery.

CJ

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Push or fold isn't poker. It's an art form .

CJ

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FYP

[SCfuji]

you can take advantage of the 800 chip tourneys on party poker. but if you do enjoy playing deeper stacks, pokerstars is a better site (along with any other site that has 1500 chip STTs).

why dont you try pushing liberally on the bubble a few tournaments, and see how you like it.

[the_joker]

[ QUOTE ]
Push or fold isn't poker. It's the lottery.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eventually in every tournament you're probably going to be in a push or fold situation. On PS the percentage of time spent in push/fold mode is less then on Party, but still you usually get to that point.

[sahala]

[ QUOTE ]

Push or fold isn't poker. It's the lottery.


[/ QUOTE ]

Last time I checked lotteries were -EV.

[ QUOTE ]
Less chips, faster tourneys, more money.

[/ QUOTE ]

FOR ME

Noooo you are still completely missing the point. In fact, you are getting the basic concepts right but misinterpretting it all. The main thing points are that:

1) You are not practicing the concept of putting the enemy on a range of hands. If you check my previous posts, I did state as you did that a good player will not want to risk taking a 50-50 to win so little. But...this is a way better than 52-48 chance man. People raise with a whole lot more hands than just pocket pairs here. In your example, people will raise with mostly any ace and some kings too. You MAY be a 52-48, but you are PROBABLY 70-30. It's not gonna get much better than that when you're gonna be blinded out in 4 orbits 4-handed. Are you somehow expecting to find a situation better than this when you potentially have 12 hands left to go?

2) You are not taking any consideration of pot odds. In short, you are doing exactly what you say that we shouldn't do: thinking about winning the most pots. As a good player, you want way better than 52-48 chance early in the tournament because you can wait for it, but as the blinds increase compared to stacks you have to be willing to get closer and closer to coin flips or else you'll be blinded out. Take an extreme example. If the blinds were 200/400, you're on the button, and your stack was 800, and you absolutely knew that this hand was a coin flip, would you not take it? Just by going all-in, you already gained 300 chips, because the pot already contains 600 chips and you're entitled to 300 of it.

Now let's look back at your AK example. Blinds 150/300, your stack 1350. I believe it was the big stack of 4400(?) that raised to 900. Since you seem to think that this is a coin flip, let's say that from your reads, there's a 55% chance he's holding a pocket pair lower than kings, 25% chance that he's holding A-x or K-x, 5% chance that he's holding AA/KK, and 15% chance that he's holding 2 cards lower than a king. Now go ahead and calculate these ridiculous percentages and see exactly how much money you make in the long run if you push here. By the way, pretty much anyone in this forum will tell you that the percentages I have given is about as pessimistic of a percentage as you can imagine within the bounds of sanity.

If you wanted to see the forest, you aren't gonna accomplish it without posting some type of blinds and stack sizes because...every tree is different, if we follow your analogy =P. Can't do the same thing for every tree in the forest.

[Nicholasp27]

a) pooshing isn't about taking 52/48 chances...when your opp will fold 80% of their hands to your push, your odds are more like 90%...Folding Equity is the most important concept...it doesn't matter what cards you hold if it doesn't go to showdown

b) blinds are ALWAYS important...no matter the situation...even in ring games...if u don't have a sense of where the blinds are, you can't examine all of the variables...doesn't matter the site or the structure

[Nicholasp27]

a) less chips, faster tourneys = more money for the smart players...+ev
b) push or fold is poker...it may not utilize the same skills that ring games do, but it's still poker
c) lottery is random chance and is -ev...pushbot is utilizing math and strategy to take smart gambles that make money in the long term


and i still can't believe u'd advocate calling 900 of your 1350 instead of pushing or folding...if u are scared of coinflip, then fold...if u wanna make money, push...but why just call? why look to trap? the pot already has over 1k chips! TOP: "win big pots early"...most likely they will call ur push, which will give you max chips if you win the hand (and u need to recognize that ak is not a flop hand, but a full board hand)...and heck, they may even fold once in a blue moon...which gives u >1k chips for free...win/win

[Fletch101]

[ QUOTE ]
A lot of players reading this board do very well indeed getting down to the bubble--last 4 or 5, but then they get a little lost because they've have to shift from ABC poker to much more feel, intuition, reads--which are simply informed guesses. We can discuss specific hands until the cows come home, but that hand will usually be for that time in that place. Change virtually any particular, and you've got a whole new ball game. Yet, that's exactly what happens every SNG you play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I get the exact opposite from my readings here. From what I'm seeing, it's just as ABC as before the bubble. It's a set of principles, based mainly in the gap concept/folding equity and structured hand analysis(a la SnG Analyzer). Reads and intuition, as you stated, play a role, as in determining when you have pushed too hard/too often and are going to start getting calls from lesser hands than your opponents would have called with before you pushed into their blinds four orbits in a row.

If this isn't the case, then I have really misinterpreted what I have read from many of the posters.

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If this isn't the case, then I have really misinterpreted what I have read from many of the posters.

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I think you have the idea right

[Cactus Jack]

I'm very glad I posted this, originally. (There were times I had my doubts.) I may have been wrong, and if so, I'm going to have to change my game in order to keep growing. I thought I was on the right track, but perhaps I am really going further OFF track. (Kinda like taking the wrong fork in the road.)

I guess I'm going to be like Tiger Woods tearing down his swing in order to reach a higher level of play. I'm winning where I am, but I may have peaked.

Yesterday, with some of your replies running through my mind, I got killed. (Cold deck, ice cold, but that only exacerbated my problems, not created them.)

I'm in the SB--level 3?--with TT, four limpers, I push. All but one fold. He calls with J8s. Jack on the flop.

Maybe this was the wrong time to push all in, but I have to fall in order to run. I have a lot of work to do. Thanks for the help.

CJ

[CatfishKing]

You are not going to get enough monsters or "trapping" hands on the bubble to justify your play. So you have to push to maintain a healthy stack. You are also missing the fact that the push/fold strategy is generally against small stacks and tight players in the blinds not against loose spite callers.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm in the SB--level 3?--with TT, four limpers, I push. All but one fold. He calls with J8s. Jack on the flop.

Maybe this was the wrong time to push all in

[/ QUOTE ]

You should be glad you got your chips in as a 3:1 favorite.

[Nicholasp27]

while u can do some restealing from time to time, a good chunk of 2+2 pushbot strategy is based on being first in the pot...that means no limpers, no raisers before you

also, how many chips did u have in level 3 to consider pushing instead of limping/raising?

and tens are gonna be up against overs...i usually play them for set value early on...limp in and if i hit the set i'm good to go; if not, i can fold easily

the general rule for limping with pps is to do it if it's less than 5% of your stack, don't do it if it's more than 10% of your stack (not enough implied odds), and in between is your discretion

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
while u can do some restealing from time to time, a good chunk of 2+2 pushbot strategy is based on being first in the pot...that means no limpers, no raisers before you

also, how many chips did u have in level 3 to consider pushing instead of limping/raising?

and tens are gonna be up against overs...i usually play them for set value early on...limp in and if i hit the set i'm good to go; if not, i can fold easily

the general rule for limping with pps is to do it if it's less than 5% of your stack, don't do it if it's more than 10% of your stack (not enough implied odds), and in between is your discretion

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, Nicholas. I probably had close to a full stack, as I wasn't getting any cards. Was covered by 20, I think.

This isn't going to be easy. I have to relearn a whole lot of different stuff. Most of it I know, but in a different way, if that makes sense. How you apply what you know, I guess. Some of it is new to me, and much of it didn't apply to my old game.

I need to change my game because it works well for PS, etc. but doesn't work at all for Party. However, what would work for Party would certainly work for any other with more chips. Right? (I hope.)

Thanks for the help. A rough road ahead, I'm afraid.

CJ

[Nicholasp27]

yes, as long as you understand that the pushbot strategy only comes into play when you have <10bbs...

in general, you wanna raise 3bbs + 1xlimpers for premium hands...but when you have <10bbs, that's over 30% of your stack, so you push instead of raising

this works on any site, but only once you get to that point where the blinds are so high...on some sites this takes much longer or may not occur in a given tourney

play solid, tag poker the first 3-4 levels and then play the smart lag based on ICM once blinds increase sufficiently

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, as long as you understand that the pushbot strategy only comes into play when you have <10bbs...

in general, you wanna raise 3bbs + 1xlimpers for premium hands...but when you have <10bbs, that's over 30% of your stack, so you push instead of raising

this works on any site, but only once you get to that point where the blinds are so high...on some sites this takes much longer or may not occur in a given tourney

play solid, tag poker the first 3-4 levels and then play the smart lag based on ICM once blinds increase sufficiently

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, Nicholas. This gives me a really solid base to work off of. I really do appreciate it.

CJ