MyTurn2Raise
09-26-2005, 02:08 AM
Week 5
Early pick of the week from me; I'm afraid the line will change like it did last week on me. Regrettably, ASU and USC play each other, which is bad since I've been riding both lately. For week 5, I like Notre Dame +3 1/2 @ Purdue. (FYI...1) I am a Notre Dame basher. 2) Purdue kicked ND's @$$ last year 41-16 and the year before 23-10.) Here's why:
1) Notre Dame's offense will be able to put up around 24-30 on the Boilermaker D.
Let's face it, This ND team is different from last year and the head/ assistant coaches have the offense rolling. ND is averaging 475 ypg and put up 42,17,41,36 against Pitt, Michigan, Mich St, and Washington respectively. These are not exactly the children of the poor.
Purdue's D has somehow fell off from last year in a shocking way. Purdue is allowing 418 ypg. Akron (400 yds and 24 pts), Arizona (300 yds and 24 pts), and Minnesota (500+ yards and 42(28) pts partly due to OT inflation) each had more success than they expected against the Boilers. Akron and Arizona passed with great success. Think of Brady Quinn lately. Minnesota showed that good running teams can have success even when Purdue knows they will run. Think of Walker.
Moreover, Minnesota drove the length of the field in the 4th quarter after it looked like Purdue took the life out of them with a int return for a TD. When push came to shove, the Purdue D buckled. On the other hand, when the ND offense has been challenged, it has responded.
2) Purdue will have only moderate success against the ND defense. I'm thinking between 17 and 24 here.
Purdue is averaging 418 ypg against some weak defenses so far. Against Minnesota, Purdue rushed for 189 yards on 29 carries. That looks good, but one early rush accounted for 88 yards. The rest of the game was 101 yards on 28 carries. If you watched the game, it was clear that Purdue (who ran on the first two weaklings) had big trouble establishing the run. Third and long was the norm. The passing attack was 15 for 34 with a couple of picks due to both bad QBing and WR dropping passes. They did get 28 points against Minn (7 came from defense). Purdue relied on big plays and redzone conversion big time.
Notre Dame's defense is respectable (400 ypg). Very impressive against Michigan (10 points). Impressive against Pitt (21)and Washington (17). Bad against Michigan State (44). Purdue is no Michigan State on offense this year. I do note that ND has limited the run of run first teams, which somehow Purdue has become.
Overall, Purdue's output will be similar to last week. The question is will they get as many big plays and will they convert red zone situations for TDs (a historic problem for Tiller's Boilermakers.)
3) I don't see much a difference in special teams
4) Notre Dame has been road warriors and is used to higher competition already. No disrespect to Arizona, but Purdue's only test this far has been Minnesota and they lost. While Purdue's home field advantage will limit this effect, expect Notre Dame to be better prepared for a quality slugfest between 2 decent teams.
COunter: Maybe the Purdue D promised in the preseason will show up.
I see a Notre Dame 24, Purdue 20 score
My pick of the week for week 5: Notre Dame +3 1/2 @ Purdue
FYI: 3-1 on the pick of the week
Won Arizona State -4 1/2 @ Oregon State
Won Arizona State -14 1/2 v Northwestern
Won Virginia Tech -20 @ Duke
Lost Rutgers +2 @ Illinois
Early pick of the week from me; I'm afraid the line will change like it did last week on me. Regrettably, ASU and USC play each other, which is bad since I've been riding both lately. For week 5, I like Notre Dame +3 1/2 @ Purdue. (FYI...1) I am a Notre Dame basher. 2) Purdue kicked ND's @$$ last year 41-16 and the year before 23-10.) Here's why:
1) Notre Dame's offense will be able to put up around 24-30 on the Boilermaker D.
Let's face it, This ND team is different from last year and the head/ assistant coaches have the offense rolling. ND is averaging 475 ypg and put up 42,17,41,36 against Pitt, Michigan, Mich St, and Washington respectively. These are not exactly the children of the poor.
Purdue's D has somehow fell off from last year in a shocking way. Purdue is allowing 418 ypg. Akron (400 yds and 24 pts), Arizona (300 yds and 24 pts), and Minnesota (500+ yards and 42(28) pts partly due to OT inflation) each had more success than they expected against the Boilers. Akron and Arizona passed with great success. Think of Brady Quinn lately. Minnesota showed that good running teams can have success even when Purdue knows they will run. Think of Walker.
Moreover, Minnesota drove the length of the field in the 4th quarter after it looked like Purdue took the life out of them with a int return for a TD. When push came to shove, the Purdue D buckled. On the other hand, when the ND offense has been challenged, it has responded.
2) Purdue will have only moderate success against the ND defense. I'm thinking between 17 and 24 here.
Purdue is averaging 418 ypg against some weak defenses so far. Against Minnesota, Purdue rushed for 189 yards on 29 carries. That looks good, but one early rush accounted for 88 yards. The rest of the game was 101 yards on 28 carries. If you watched the game, it was clear that Purdue (who ran on the first two weaklings) had big trouble establishing the run. Third and long was the norm. The passing attack was 15 for 34 with a couple of picks due to both bad QBing and WR dropping passes. They did get 28 points against Minn (7 came from defense). Purdue relied on big plays and redzone conversion big time.
Notre Dame's defense is respectable (400 ypg). Very impressive against Michigan (10 points). Impressive against Pitt (21)and Washington (17). Bad against Michigan State (44). Purdue is no Michigan State on offense this year. I do note that ND has limited the run of run first teams, which somehow Purdue has become.
Overall, Purdue's output will be similar to last week. The question is will they get as many big plays and will they convert red zone situations for TDs (a historic problem for Tiller's Boilermakers.)
3) I don't see much a difference in special teams
4) Notre Dame has been road warriors and is used to higher competition already. No disrespect to Arizona, but Purdue's only test this far has been Minnesota and they lost. While Purdue's home field advantage will limit this effect, expect Notre Dame to be better prepared for a quality slugfest between 2 decent teams.
COunter: Maybe the Purdue D promised in the preseason will show up.
I see a Notre Dame 24, Purdue 20 score
My pick of the week for week 5: Notre Dame +3 1/2 @ Purdue
FYI: 3-1 on the pick of the week
Won Arizona State -4 1/2 @ Oregon State
Won Arizona State -14 1/2 v Northwestern
Won Virginia Tech -20 @ Duke
Lost Rutgers +2 @ Illinois