Jamming a big draw on the flop, take a free turn card?

[JTG51]

Here's a hand from my 4/8 session with the other 2+2ers at Foxwoods Saturday. I think Barry was mixed up somewhere in the hand, I don't remember exactly where though.

I'm in the BB with A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif T /forums/images/icons/heart.gif . Two EP players limp to an unknown MP who raises. A Wild Man (WM) cold calls as does a LP. I call. 6 of us see the flop.

Flop: Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif J /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

I bet, folded to MP who calls, WM raises and LP cold calls. I 3-bet and MP and WM call. LP folded.

Turn: [Q /forums/images/icons/heart.gif J /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif ] 8 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

I picked up a few more outs with a double gut shot now, but I still have only A high. Who bets here and who takes the free card?

I checked and everyone checked around. I ended up hitting the 2 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif on the river and got called by MP.

[travisand]

Without the addition of the extra outs I am in favor of checking but picking up the double gut shot probably would have persuaded me to bet out again.

Although it probably wouldn't be a catastrophe if you bet out again even without the double gut shot.

[slavic]

13 clean outs versus two players
MP has AQ or high pair (Q set?) 4 outs?
WM who knows A2?
I think you bet

[Barry]

I don't remember this hand at all. But if you were the BB on this hand, Homer was UTG, LarryJoe, if it was after he came would have been EP, CO for me and button for Angel_Fish. Whew, I can't be the WM here.

With respect to the hand, you have 13 clean outs and 2 questionable ones. Mathematically, this is a slightly -EV bet. If you thought that you had a reasonable chance to win the pot right there by betting, that would be OK. With the preflop and flop betting, it doesn't look like either WM or MP are going anywhere for a turn bet. So, IMO checking here is fine.

[marbles]

By my count, you're looking at 15 almost certain outs, and, if by chance the aces are clean, another 3 there... Let's say 16-17 outs on average. If both players are almost certain to call, then bet. If both players are almost certain to fold, then bet. If you're likely to keep one, but lose the other, then check.

In the games I'm accustomed to, they almost always call in this situation, so I almost always bet. It's basically EV neutral, but it helps mask my sets, which I like to play as fast as humanly possible.

[Clarkmeister]

I think betting is mandatory.

1. You are likely to get both players to call. This makes it a value bet anyways.

2. By checking, you allow them to get frisky and have it go bet-raise to you. This isn't a nightmare, but its just a crappy way to play by losing the initiative and cold-calling. Betting really makes it hard for anyone to get out of line unless they have a monster.

3. Hopefully you jam it up on the flop in these spots with hands like AQ, 2 pair or a set. Because of this, you don't want to only check draws and bet made hands. Plus, if you make it to showdown you really gain big benefits on future hands.

[JTG51]

LOL, don't worry you definitely weren't the Wild Man. I thought you might have been a limper, if you were I don't think you went past the flop though.

[JTG51]

Hopefully you jam it up on the flop in these spots with hands like AQ, 2 pair or a set.

Yes, I would most of the time.

Because of this, you don't want to only check draws and bet made hands.

My default play is to bet in this spot. I've been thinking about and experimenting with checking made hands from EP on the turn after showing strength on the flop as S&M suggest in HPFAP (and as Homer and I talked about on Saturday). Obviously checking draws also is an important part of this idea. I guess I shouldn't have picked such a strong draw to try it.

[RockLobster]

Who bets here and who takes the free card?

I'd check about 2/3 of the time, unless I thought a turn bet might win me the pot right there. But I can't see how either action could be a big mistake in this situation.

I played 6.5 hours of 4-8 on 3 different tables that day, but never ended up playing with you guys. I guess that's good for my BR, but I hope to be at the same table with you guys in the future...

[AceHigh]

Bet for all the reasons Clarkmeister mentioned, plus it disguises you hand somewhat.

[Ed Miller]

I think you gotta bet the turn here. Jeez... it's basically a bet for value at this point still. The fact that better hands may fold in what is now a juicy pot is almost gravy.