Is this river bet too risky?

Villain in this hand is 40/17/2.6. FWIW I thought I was firmly in the lead on the flop/turn. I think the fact that KJ straights and a few possible raising hands two pair might make this a check? Am I wrong here?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (6.66 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets...</font>

Final Pot: 10.66 BB

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

ill usually bet there.

[kapw7]

I think he will call enough times with A-high or a lower PP to make this bet profitable. Your bet also looks like a busted draw bluff bet

[B Dids]

If you think you're ahead (i.e., he doesn't have a Q) I think you bet the river.

Sometimes in this spot I'll check the turn and call a river bet, as sort of a "lose the least when I'm behind, win more when I'm ahead/I like to be different in HU pots sometimes" move.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]

Sometimes in this spot I'll check the turn and call a river bet, as sort of a "lose the least when I'm behind, win more when I'm ahead/I like to be different in HU pots sometimes" move.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's weak IMO. You give a free card a lot more times than when you pay off a pair of queens (or better) on the turn.

[B Dids]

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Sometimes in this spot I'll check the turn and call a river bet, as sort of a "lose the least when I'm behind, win more when I'm ahead/I like to be different in HU pots sometimes" move.

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That's weak IMO. You give a free card a lot more times than when you pay off a pair of queens (or better) on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The second part of my statement is more important. If I'm in a spot where I'm playing the same person HU in a lot of pots, I'm going to throw different lines at them, and this is one of them.

i'd bet it.

[kapw7]

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The second part of my statement is more important. If I'm in a spot where I'm playing the same person HU in a lot of pots, I'm going to throw different lines at them, and this is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the idea of varying your play and throwing different lines but these lines need to be close EV-wise. In this case I think the turn check is not.

[ QUOTE ]
The second part of my statement is more important. If I'm in a spot where I'm playing the same person HU in a lot of pots, I'm going to throw different lines at them, and this is one of them.

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agreed.

you should also consider checking behind the turn with your stronger hands (ones in which a free card is unlikely to hurt you) in order to raise the river when he value bets or takes a stab at it.

[baronzeus]

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Sometimes in this spot I'll check the turn and call a river bet, as sort of a "lose the least when I'm behind, win more when I'm ahead/I like to be different in HU pots sometimes" move.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's weak IMO. You give a free card a lot more times than when you pay off a pair of queens (or better) on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The second part of my statement is more important. If I'm in a spot where I'm playing the same person HU in a lot of pots, I'm going to throw different lines at them, and this is one of them.

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you are giving your opponents too much respect. only assume he thinks if he gives you reason to do so.

[PokerBob]

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Sometimes in this spot I'll check the turn

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on that drawy board, i think that is a big mistake.

[B Dids]

Assume I assume he's calling the turn a vast majority of the time if I bet, do you still not like it?

I admit I wasn't looking very close at this specific board when I threw that out though, and I agree on that board betting is probably best.

[B Dids]

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Sometimes in this spot I'll check the turn and call a river bet, as sort of a "lose the least when I'm behind, win more when I'm ahead/I like to be different in HU pots sometimes" move.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's weak IMO. You give a free card a lot more times than when you pay off a pair of queens (or better) on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

The second part of my statement is more important. If I'm in a spot where I'm playing the same person HU in a lot of pots, I'm going to throw different lines at them, and this is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]


you are giving your opponents too much respect. only assume he thinks if he gives you reason to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm playing HU with somebody enough over the course, I'm going to give them some credit unless they give me reason not to. (save you of course, HUFISH /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

But obviously I'm mixing up lines more often vs. good players than utter donks.

[PokerBob]

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Assume I assume he's calling the turn a vast majority of the time if I bet, do you still not like it?

I admit I wasn't looking very close at this specific board when I threw that out though, and I agree on that board betting is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you have to vary your play when you are often HU with the same player, as you have suggested. i just feel that on this board, you can't get cute.

He check-raised and I called, he showed T9o for rivered two pair. My bet was correct though I think, especially after reading your guys statements. There are too many ways he pays me off here to check.

[cartman]

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He check-raised and I called

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I think the bet is good, but I would have folded to the checkraise.

Cartman

[kidcolin]

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If you think you're ahead (i.e., he doesn't have a Q) I think you bet the river.

Sometimes in this spot I'll check the turn and call a river bet, as sort of a "lose the least when I'm behind, win more when I'm ahead/I like to be different in HU pots sometimes" move.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not a big fan of this, either. Not on this board, anyway. You can accomplish the same "win more/lose least" by betting the turn and checking the river. I see what you're saying about mixing it up, but it's not that important at 3/6, and you can find better boards to try it.

I'd only check the turn on a very raggedy board and against an opponent who will give up on the turn a lot. You could induce a river bluff. Even then I prefer just playing straightforward most of the time and betting. Occassionally I'll take a weird line for the reasons you originally stated. Then I'll type in the chat "oooohhh me so fancy."

[kidcolin]

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He check-raised and I called

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? What do you beat? I used to pay off in these spots a lot, too. It's a big leak, IMO.

Hrm, I guess I wanted to see what he had is not a good answer?

Yeah, I have a hard time making these river folds which should be easy. Heeehawww.

[Nietzsche]

I think this is an added problem with betting in a spot like this: There are some missed draws out there and an aggressive player will sometimes checkraise those and that makes it more problematic to fold here. That may only happen a small percentage of the time, admittedly, but still it is a factor that should be included in the calculations.

[Derek in NYC]

This is a really clear value bet against this opponent. It's not even close. You will get called here by 88, TJ, etc. far more often than you will encounter a queen or KJ.