Full hand that Im posting here

[NLSoldier]

Table started out short but had just filled up.

SB just sat and is unknown.

Party 30/60 9 handed.

EP lag raises, another LAG CCs in MP, I CC on his left with QhJh. Button CCs and blinds come along.

Flop is J53 2 clubs. checked to PFR who bets, MP raises, I 3bet, sb immediately calls 3 cold. BB and PFR fold, MP calls.

Turn is Qd. Checked to me, I bet, only SB calls.

River Tc. Check, Check.

[TStoneMBD]

i think i know why youre posting this here and i dont blame you, because this is arguably the best strategy forum on twoplustwo for the time being, but if people start posting full ring games here it diminishes its purpose.

as for the hand i like everything up until the river in which case the action is pretty close. i think you should value bet against an unknown because odds are that hes a fish in which case he doesnt have to have a flush draw or a hand that beats you. you should expect to see a flush draw donk the river a good portion of the time which increases the likelihood that youre still ahead here, so i would bet for value and expect to see a weaker 1/2pair hand enough times to show profit.

[baronzeus]

i spent a lot of thinking about this and i think you should bet the river

[TheMetetron]

Because he's an unknown, I bet here.

[B Dids]

I would like to know if the SB could have AJ, KJ or JT here.

Calling 3 cold feels flush drawy or jack-y.

Absent a read, I probably bet, but I feel really icky if I get raised.

[private joker]

Nice hand.

Quick cold-calls of multiple raises almost always means a draw, and the only logical draw is crub frush. It got there. You'd have to call a checkraise because you have 2 pair, so I love the check behind. If you only had 1 pair, I'd bet/fold the river.

[imported_ncray]

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If you only had 1 pair, I'd bet/fold the river.

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why? i think this is wrong.

[baronzeus]

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If you only had 1 pair, I'd bet/fold the river.

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why? i think this is wrong.

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i agree.

[Grisgra]

I rarely play 9-handed but the LAGs would have to be pretty LAGgy for me to coldcall with QJs. Seems like a hand to get in a lot of trouble with. Do I just suck? What else do you coldcall with here?

I probably wuss out like you did, but purely EV wise I think bet/folding the river is best. Though this way you have a minute chance of picking off a river bluff that would have folded to a bet, and with check/call instead of bet/fold you now figure out what this guy actually had, and info is always good.

[private joker]

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If you only had 1 pair, I'd bet/fold the river.

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why? i think this is wrong.

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Because absent a read that SB is a maniac, river checkraises are almost always for value. He wouldn't expect Dave to fold, so he's not c/r'ing a hand worse than one pair. Save the BB.

[chio]

it's close, but i like the river check

simple analysis - given that he called the flop, SB either has a worse hand he's calling with, or a flush draw.

let's assume that if you bet, you would call a c/r, so you lose 2 bets when he has the flush, but gain 1 when he doesn't.

given that he called 3 bets on the flop immediately, i think he has the flush draw > 1/3 of the time.

[baronzeus]

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If you only had 1 pair, I'd bet/fold the river.

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why? i think this is wrong.

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Because absent a read that SB is a maniac, river checkraises are almost always for value. He wouldn't expect Dave to fold, so he's not c/r'ing a hand worse than one pair. Save the BB.

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no, he's asking why you would bet. THAT is a waste of a BB.

[TStoneMBD]

you might want to consider staying at 3/6 until you figure out why what you just said makes no sense.

[istewart]

I think his point is that you have to win that bet when called more often if you are going to call a check/raise than if you aren't. But I think this is offset a bit by having top two in one situation vs. one pair in the other.

[NLSoldier]

I guess this hand just goes to show you can never be too sure of a read, especially online. When he insta cold called on the flop I put him squarely on a set or a flush draw. And when he didnt CR the turn I ruled out the set. I guess I didnt think he would have called PF with any of the possible 2 pair hands. And thought even if he did have 2 pair he woulda capped the flop. Anyways, as most of you know, I pretty much ALWAYS value bet this, but tje cold call of 3 on the flop really through me off. He had J5o and I felt like a vagina. I probably also didnt give enough consideration to the possibility of a good jack either.

[chio]

read my post above. i still like the check. i think he has a flush draw or a strong made hand once he calls quickly on the flop. and i think he has a flush draw > 1/3 the time. good check.

[private joker]

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you might want to consider staying at 3/6 until you figure out why what you just said makes no sense.

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The last time I played 3/6 was 15k hands ago. I'm not moving down, because I've won over $3,000 at 5/10, but thanks for the advice.

[Victor]

i thought you were the river value bluff master....

fwiw i dont like the coldcall .

[NLSoldier]

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i thought you were the river value bluff master....

fwiw i dont like the coldcall .

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Yeah I'm not sure about the cold call either. I dont know how to play full preflop, which is why I always leave when it fills up /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[NLSoldier]

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i think he has a flush draw or a strong made hand once he calls quickly on the flop.

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agreed. and his lack of turn check raise pretty much ruled out the made hand in my mind.

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and i think he has a flush draw > 1/3 the time. good check.

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So did I, but I think ive been convinced otherwise. Apperenty I didnt give enough thought to the possiblily of 2 pair on this board. And Im not sure but it seems like he would have probably played AJ/KJ the same way. Another good point is the fact that theres a good chance he would have donked if he had the flush.

[Victor]

the reason i think its an easy value bet is bc no one folds top pair here. his hand really looks like aj or kj here. 2pair is also a very possible hand. there are a lot of hands you beat here.

[NLSoldier]

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the reason i think its an easy value bet is bc no one folds top pair here. his hand really looks like aj or kj here. 2pair is also a very possible hand. there are a lot of hands you beat here.

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2 pair? how can you put a guy on J5/J3/35? he cant really have any other 2 pair other than the same hand as me cuz he probably wouldnt call the 3 cold on the flop.

[Victor]

perhaps that was results oriented /images/graemlins/confused.gif

when i initially read the post (prior to seeing results) i put him on aj or kj tho.

[Moozh]

Let me try some hand ranges. You didn't mention any reads on SB so I'll assume he's reasonable.

First, the hands that beat us: flush, straight, set.

A flush is very possible. A suited ace could be played like this, but I might expect a flop cap. Perhaps a weaker flush that wasn't comfortable raising the flop.

Straights can be made with AK, K9 and T9. Of these, I only see AK calling 3 cold on the flop.

Sets are all possible, but would probably raise the turn (maybe not if he's trying to keep MP around). Of the set possibilities, JJ is unlikely becuase SB only called pre, but maybe he was scared of raising multiway OOP. That pretty much only leaves 55 and 33.

So what do we beat that would pay us off? Worse two pair, or a single pair.

Worse two pairs: QT, Q5, Q3, JT, J5, J3, T5, T3, and 53. Of those I see JT definitely playing this way and maaaybe J5 or J3 (preflop is iffy).

Worse single pairs: You'll probably only get paid off by a jack or queen (maaaybe an 8 if you're lucky), and a lone queen is unlikely as the flop call makes no sense.

If you're calling a raise and you're only raised when you're beat, you need to be winning 2/3s of the time to bet the river. If we consider that you may get called by a better hand and may be raised by a worse one infrequently, you probably only need to be right about half the time. Given that, I still like the check.

[NLSoldier]

I think it all comes down to how reasonable you assume he is. If you think J5/J3/35 is in his range, then its a bet. If not, then probably not. It seemed to me that he would fold this preflop and cap those on the flop, but obviously I was wrong.

[Moozh]

I agree, I think a preflop read is very important here. Without one, I lean towards check.

[ggbman]

I would bet and fold to c/r. In reality, i would bet and end up calling the raise because i would want to see what two cards he made the flush with, and i would convince myself it was just 1 BB and i could make it back by focusing extra hard. But you should bet and fold to a c/r.

[baronzeus]

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perhaps that was results oriented /images/graemlins/confused.gif

when i initially read the post (prior to seeing results) i put him on aj or kj tho.

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Before even seeing the results i told nlsoldier that i thought J5 and J3 play the hand the same way, as does AJ or KJ, so I thought he should bet.

Also, I think it's fairly safe to fold to a river raise from this guy??


Another thing most people are missing out on is the fact that when obvious flush draws hit, ppl usually don't check-raise, they BET. The fact that he didnt bet makes it less likely that he has a flush draw.

[Catt]

I don't know whether bet or check is correct. I know I would check behind. This hand looks so much like a FD that while I acknowledge J5 / J3 could play like this, when I think of handranges, FDs way, way outnumber possible two-pair or TP hands that I think play this way. Against an unknown, I'd check and feel good when he shows his losing 2-pair. I don't play the 30/60 so my thoughts may not be applicable.

[Justin A]

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Another thing most people are missing out on is the fact that when obvious flush draws hit, ppl usually don't check-raise, they BET. The fact that he didnt bet makes it less likely that he has a flush draw.

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Eh, I see where you're coming from, but change usually to sometimes and I agree. So yeah it makes it less likely he has a flush draw, but not as much as you're implying.