Bad Streak, Bad Play or Both?

[CMangano]

I am relatively new to Hold'em, but I think I play pretty well. I have read Lee Jones' book at least 5 or 6 times. I have also read HPFAP a couple times, and the loose section at least 4 or 5 times. I am almost finished reading Theory of Poker, and read these boards daily. My first 2 months were very good to me. This month, however, has been a nightmare. So, I need to figure out if I am losing more than I should, or if I am just on a bad run right now. I am sure the knowledgable people here can help me determine that.

----------------------------

Hand 1 (3/6 online)

I am dealt QQ in the SB. This is the first hand I have played since joining the table (1 orbit). 1 LP calls (calls with anything decent, but will throw away absolute rags), 1 MP calls (average player), CO calls (average player) and I raise. BB and MP fold, rest call, 3 to the flop.

Flop comes 7h Kd 8h. The King scares me, but I bet out. LP calls (big surprise) and CO folds. 2 to the turn.

Turn comes KC [7h Kd 8h]. I bet out again, LP calls.

River comes the Jd [7h Kd 8h Kd]. I bet out, thinking the only way I am losing is if he turns over a K. LP calls. Thoughts?

-----------------------------

Hand 2 Same Table

2 orbits later I play my second hand of the day, QQ in the SB again! It's folded to the button who raises (he is a decent player, and my guess he is trying to steal the blinds with an average holding). I raise, SB and BB fold, Button calls. Heads up on the flop.

Flop comes Jh 9c 6s. I bet expecting the button to fold, and he calls.

Turn comes 4d [Jh 9c 6s]. I bet with no doubt that I am in the lead, and he calls.

River comes 10c [Jh 9c 6s 4d]. I again bet, but this time he raises. I call. Thoughts?

-------------------------------

Hand 3 Same Table

I am in MP with A6/forums/images/icons/spade.gif. 2 LP players call, the player to my right calls (MP), the player to my left calls, the CO calls and the BB checks. 7 players to the flop.

Flop comes 7c 8s Qs. Nice flop for me. First 2 LP players check, player to my right bets, I call (I felt a raise would leave me heads up, and I wanted to get more money in the pot by just calling), player to my left calls, everyone else folds. 3 to the turn.

Turn comes 6h [7c 8s Qs]. My right bets, I call, my left folds. Heads up on the river.

River comes 10d [7c 8s Qs 6h]. My right bets, I fold my bottom pair. Thoughts?

-------------------------------

Hand 4

I get ATo in LMP (cutoff is to my left). 1 LP, player to my right, myself, and the SB call, BB checks. 5 to the flop.

Flop comes 9s 8s 4s. My A is a spade. SB checks, BB bets, next 2 fold, I call and SB folds. Assuming my opponent has 2 spades, I have 7 outs to the nuts. With 2 cards to come, I am about a 2.5-1 dog. With 18 dollars in the pot and 3 to call, I am getting 6-1 pot odds, so I felt this was a good call. However, I think the better play was a raise. If my opponent has 2 small spades, he will fear a bigger flush and may check on the turn, giving me a free card. If he doesn't have the flush, he may fear I do and lay it down right there. Either way, I think a raise was a better play here.

Turn comes Jh [9s 8s 4s]. Now I am wishing I raised. He bets I call.

River comes 8c [9s 8s 4s Jh]. He bets I fold.

I still think a raise would have saved me 3 dollars here. Thoughts?

----------------------------

Hand 5

I am in the CO with AQ. UTG+1 Raises (he is an average player), my right calls, I reraise, it's folded back to UTG+1 who calls, my right calls. 3 to the flop.

Flop comes 7c Kh Jh. Not great for me, but not bad either. I have one overcard assuming no one has 2 pairs, and a T gives me the nuts. Both players check to me, I bet figuring at the least I can hopefully get a free card on the turn. UTG+1 calls, other player folds.

Turn comes Jd [7c Kh Jh]. UTG+1 bets. That second J scares me, as he could have AJ, QJ, JT, etc. If he has KJ I am drawing dead. I call anyways.

River comes 7d [7c Kh Jh Jd]. He bets, I fold. Thoughts?

-----------------------------

Hand 6

I get A6/forums/images/icons/heart.gif in MP. 1 LP calls, I call, button calls and the BB checks. 4 to the flop.

Flop comes Jh Js 6c. Bottom pair with overcard, backdoor nut flush draw. It's checked to me, I check, button bets, everyone, including me, folds. I figured if he had a J my only chance was the backdoor flush, so I folded. Thoughts?

-----------------------------

I played 2 other hands, AK and TT. I won with them and they were very straightforward, so I didn't think I needed to post them. So I played 8 total hands in 2 hours (the 6 above and the last 2 just mentioned). All thoughts and critiques are more than welcome. Thanks.

[Bob T.]

1 - I probably play the same way. I expect to win this showdown.

2 - I probably play the same way, but I expect to lose this showdown. You have about the worst possible board you could have here, your opponent could have a smaller pair, J,T,or 9s and have made a set and slowplayed., or a bigger pair with KK, or AA, and slowplayed, or he could have been on a steal with JT, and made twopair, and slowplayed, or he could have KQ, and just made his hand. You can beat AK, or any AX. You are hoping that he had AJ, and slowplayed this flop.

3 - routine.

4 - With the Ace of spades, I am going to raise the flop. If I don't get reraised, after I improve with the straight draw, I will bet the turn, if I don't get raised on the turn, I will probably bet the river if it is headsup. You immediately put your opponent on two small spades, but he could have top pair, or just one big, but not the biggest spade, for his play. If you play aggressively, you might get him to lay down those hands. At any rate, even with small spades, he is going to be hard pressed to reraise you, because you have the Ace of Spades.

5 - I would fold against an EP raiser, unless I knew that he was out of line.

6 - Bet the flop when it is checked to you. Then the other guys can imagine that you have the Jack.

On these hands, you weren't ever completely out of line. I don't like playing the AQ hand, but it seems that if you play those, and your running good, the flop comes AQx, and you get to take AK down. If your not, you lose about 6 small bets before you figure out that you aren't catching up.

[mikeca]

#1 Unless this was a complete calling stallion, I would have check/called the river.

#2 I might have check/called this river here too. If he is a decent player what is he calling your turn bet with? If you check, you can usually induce a bet from most hands you can beat that would call your bet.

#3 Looks fine.

#4 It is very hard to get a player who flopped a flush to lay it down in LL. Only the better players will bet a flush draw. I would guess he either has the flush, top pair, or two pair.

#5 AQo should not be played against a legit early position raise. If you think this raiser’s standards are low, a re-raise is ok. I would fold the turn.

#6 I don’t like playing this hand in MP with only one limper. Flush draws are long shots. Ace high flops are tricky to play in games where most players call with any Ax. I want to see more limpers and the game be passive.

[Louie Landale]

As far as I know, "EP" is "early position", "MP", is "middle position", and "LP" is "late position". LPs act AFTER the MPs. Anyway...

Lee Jones' book is good to read for attitude and other subjective stuff, but is not a good reference book. Stop reading it. The 2+2 stuff is much better to study, as is Caro.

[1] Pretty routine. The turn K was the best card you could catch, after of course one of the Qs. You just outdrew 87 but more importantly there is one less K he can have to have you beat.

[2] Pretty routine, but you are almost always beat in that spot, but there is no shame in paying off the good tricky folk heads-up with an over-pair.

[3] Pretty routine. Raising the flop with your over-card flush draw is an option if there is any reasonable chance you can steal this one with a turn bet. Calling is certainly not wrong.

[4] NOW you want to raise once your figure he HAS a flush? The best that can happen is you save $3; of which about $1 is your show-down equity. And you may lose callers AND get 3-bet which costs a lot more than $2. OK, its a reasonable raise if there is some reasonable chance you can steal it. Even after calling the flop, I would give STRONG consideration to raising on the turn now that you have picked up a 2-way hand.

[5] When you 3-bet with AQ the worst flops you can get are KKJ and KJJ 2-flushes. KJ7 is not far behind. Try to name a few worse flops? Before the flop there was some reasonable chance you had the best hand; now you have 4 outs plus maybe another 3. So that flop dropped you from about a 1.2:1 underdog to a 6:1 underdog. "but not bad either" is way out of line.

[6] When you have A6, lets compare the two flops [J96] and [JJ6]. With J96 there are 6 cards the opponent can have to beat your pair (3xJs and 3x9s), and may have a straight draw. With JJ6 there are only 2 cards he can have to beat your pair. JJ6 bottom pair is MUCH better than J96 bottom pair, even if you have no chance to outdraw anybody. Your hand was well worth a bet, and CERTAINLY worth at least a call against a button bet who can easily have nothing.

Playing only 8 hands in 2 hours, and none of them trash, certainly means you are playing selectively. Keep up the good work there. You seem to be having some non-disaster trouble after the flop, however. If you loosen up before the flop you are going to find yourself in a whole bunch of those awkward situatins that you don't know how to handle (like JT flop KT4 when someone else bets...).

- Louie

[CMangano]

I am gonna post the results with the comments, even though I think the results are inconsequential.

Hand 1

I lose to 9T for the J high straight. Like I said, I expected to lose to Kx or something like that. I felt I was in the lead the whole way, and felt my opponent was either calling with a small pair or possibly the Kx. However, I felt at the time that my opponent would have raised on the turn when the 2nd K fell if he had one.

Hand 2

I lose to 9T for the 2-pair. Again, I put him on a steal (which was accurate) and he caught his miracle. Until the river, I felt I was way ahead.

Hand 3

I only briefly considered raising, but was fearful I would knock everyone out behind us. Although raising may have won me the pot right there, I never looked at that as an option. I didn't feel the pot had gotten that big at this point (8 SB's). Is this incorrect?

Hand 4

In hindsight, I am thinking this probably would have been a good hand to laydown pre-flop. I went through and re-read the hand selection part of HPFAP and think a laydown was the right move. However, that said, after playing it I think Bob's critique has the most value. There is no guarantee he has a flush, and if he does I know for a fact that it is not to the nuts, so he will be scared I have the bigger flush. Also, if he has top pair or 2 medium pairs or something, he may lay this down fearing a flush. I think Bob and Louie are right on about the turn.

Hand 5

I think this is probably the worst played hand of the bunch. Definitely should not have reraised. Also, I have a big problem when I flop an inside straight with a flush on the board. If someone has 2 hearts I have only 3 outs, assuming top pair won't win. If no one has 2 hearts I still only have 4 outs. I probably should have just folded here, and I think I definitely should have folded when that second J hits. Now I am almost 100% at 4 or less outs, 3 if there are still 2 hearts out there.

Hand 6

I think Mike is right about this one. With only 1 limper ahead of me, this was probably a fold. However, I think Bob and Louie are right that a bet here is good. As Louie pointed out so well, there are only 2 cards that beat me (assuming no one has 66). I think it was well worth a bet to at the very least see the turn.

In response to Louie's reply to Lee Jones' book, it's actually kind of funny. I was reading through Gambling Theory and got to the end and found the part about him reviewing other poker books. His review of WLLH was eye-opening to me, to say the least. I immediately sat down and began to reread HPFAP again and noticed the differences. I think WLLH worked for me as far as teaching me discipline and such, but I think it is time for me to retire the book.

Also, thanks to Mike and Bob for their great reply's as well. It's always nice to see things from someone elses perspective.