KK's in monster pot, river play? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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ApolloQuiet

09-25-2005, 10:08 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB caps, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (36 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (9 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (24 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (30 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero ......

Nick Royale

09-25-2005, 10:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
KK's in monster pot, river play?

[/ QUOTE ] And what would the alternative to calling be? Calling is best by far, folding is obviously the worse alternative.

Hybrid_11

09-25-2005, 05:21 PM

the play by utg is amazingly confusing to say the least. I honestly cant think of what he plays like this. I dont give him credit for the 3 or anybody for that matter. Assuming average player I can see pock jacks being a possible hand but In that size of a pot Im not entirely sure why to wait till the river to pop it. pocket sixes is hard to put him on from an ep raise preflop. An ace high is possible ive seen players go crazy with their flush on boards like this. It all comes down to what reads you have on his style of play. I might actually be inclined to 3 bet the river or else he misplayed whatever hand that beats yours.

mtdoak

09-25-2005, 05:31 PM

Makes it 3 and swears loudly if capped.

Nick Royale

09-25-2005, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the play by utg is amazingly confusing to say the least. I honestly cant think of what he plays like this. I dont give him credit for the 3 or anybody for that matter. Assuming average player I can see pock jacks being a possible hand but In that size of a pot Im not entirely sure why to wait till the river to pop it. pocket sixes is hard to put him on from an ep raise preflop. An ace high is possible ive seen players go crazy with their flush on boards like this. It all comes down to what reads you have on his style of play. I might actually be inclined to 3 bet the river or else he misplayed whatever hand that beats yours.

[/ QUOTE ]
I misread the post first time around, didn't see that there were actually 3 3's giving us a fh /images/graemlins/blush.gif

But I made some calcs:

The probability you have the best hand: x
The probability BB calls: y

Raise:
EV: [x(1+2y)-3(x-1)]BB

Call:
EV: xBB

From this you can read that if we're ahead of UTG+1 70% of the time and BB calls (a 3-bet) 46% of the time, calling is stll better.

BB have called 1 bet at the time in this hand so far and against a check/raise and a re-raise I think he's folding more often than 46% of the time. So if raising is good or not is depending on what UTG+1 might check/raise with. if it's a sane range of hands it's only hands that beats us. If he's check/raising a J we should 3-bet, but after the action previously in the hand we really can't count on him doing that. He has played his hand weird, but I still think calling the check/raise and going for a overcall is better.

Hybrid_11

09-25-2005, 06:38 PM

I think the main thing we have to do is figure out what utg would check/raise on the river with. Again it comes down to reads and play from earlier. If hes a decent but weak player I think wired jacks is his likley holding maybe waiting to the river to see if anyone has the case 3. If hes one of those players you see get incredibly aggro and loose i could see him making this move with just one jack in his hand maybe queens and even a flush. To really decide what to do comes down to what kind of player he is and we do not know that. We have bb beat by his play theres nothing that suggests we dont.

In this size of a pot I cant see bb folding facing 2 more cold regardless because were looking at a huge pot.

ApolloQuiet

09-25-2005, 08:13 PM

Didn't think I was going to finish in third place, but oh well......

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB caps, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (36 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (9 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (24 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (30 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 42 BB

BB has As Ah (full house, threes full of aces).
UTG+1 has 6s 6c (full house, sixes full of threes).
Hero has Kd Ks (full house, threes full of kings).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 4 BB.