semibluff or fold?

[wheelz]

villain bought in short 2 hands ago, that's all i can tell you about him.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (2 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?

[cartman]

This looks like a very clear fold to me, which means I must be missing something of you wouldn't have posted it. The pot is extremely small. If you had a read that he checks the flop when it misses him after raising preflop then it might be different.

What am I missing?

Thanks,
Cartman

[wheelz]

me being results oriented.

more and more often i'm seeing PFR's check the flop legitimately.

[gildwulf]

The way you played this you have to fold. You have six-high (why did you defend your BB with 63s? I don't play 30/60 but this seems way too loose) in a very small pot. You have no read on your opponent. Don't be a hero. Just fold the turn.

[Alobar]

pretty easy fold IMO. Didnt you make a post not too long ago, about how you play well, and then a hand comes up where you put them in "full of [censored] mode" and ruin a session by spewing chips (if it wasnt you,then sorry), yeah, I think this is one of those times.

[wheelz]

my 6 high is double gutted.

yeah preflop... i think it was trix who posted a hand a while ago where he defended with 63s, and overall people liked a call. it was my first hand, i wanted to defend.

i really feel like i could make more if i was a hero a bit more often.

[gildwulf]

Oh, well if it's a double gut than you should totally call getting 2:1 with one card to come. Also if you pair a 6 or a 3 you have the nuts. Plus it's SOOOOTED.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
my 6 high is double gutted.


[/ QUOTE ]

wow, I cant read the board

now I dunno. Why the eff would he check the flop tho? I dont think he has shite enough for it to work. But I dont play the 30 so I dunno how often your typical SB opener will check the flop out of fear. I think I still fold

[wheelz]

heh, that might've been me. i don't suffer from that much anymore though. this hand was my first one at the table.

i did post this hand after dropping a buy in though /images/graemlins/grin.gif

like i said, i'm just seeing a lot of legitimate flop checks lately.

[wheelz]

ok, but saying "you have six high" sounded to me like you might have misread the board (like alobar just did.)

there's quite a difference between having 6 high no draw and 6 high double gutted. i wanted to raise, not call.

[gildwulf]

Even raising you're putting 2BB in to win 2BB, possibly 3. The pot is just too small, man to take this kind of risk...I really think raising here would be spewing.

[wheelz]

i don't really think he has something he calls a raise with that often. i just think most players know enough to bet flops when they flop something. of course by that logic, i have to worry that he knows that i know that he's supposed to bet... i'm just sick of giving away pots every time someone raises then checks the flop.

[gildwulf]

He doesn't have to have something big enough to call a raise with but the pot isn't big enough to find out. If you had more outs this would be a great semibluff (say you had 6 of spades and 3 of spades) but unfortunately you don't. Also you only really have 6 clean outs.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a very clear fold to me, which means I must be missing something of you wouldn't have posted it. The pot is extremely small. If you had a read that he checks the flop when it misses him after raising preflop then it might be different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, like the fact that you have a double gutshot. What a moron I am. I withdrawal everything I said before. Now there is no way I fold getting an immediate 3 to 1. I value your hand at at least 10 outs. The only question is whether to raise or to call. If you see plenty of legitimate checking in that game then I would probably raise. If you think he is capable of check-folding the river here then I would just call and bluff the river if checked to on the river unimproved.

Cartman

[gildwulf]

Where the (*&amp;)(*) did you get 10 outs?

[wheelz]

come on people, i said semibluff!

[cartman]

I think there is no chance sb has a spade draw. I think based on wheelz comment that he sees plenty of legitimate checking on the flop by preflop raiser that it is quite possible that his pair outs are good also. So I count the non-heart 4's and 8's as full outs (6 so far). I count the 4 and 8 of hearts at at least a half out each (7 so far). I count the 6's and 3's as half an out each because of the chance that he slowplayed a big pair or better on the flop and that brings me to 10. I think that may even be a conservative estimate.

Am I crazy?

Cartman

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
Even raising you're putting 2BB in to win 2BB

[/ QUOTE ]

it's actually 2 to win 3.

i guess calling is looking more appealing to me.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even raising you're putting 2BB in to win 2BB

[/ QUOTE ]

it's actually 2 to win 3.

i guess calling is looking more appealing to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll be hard-pressed to bet the river with no pair once you call the turn in a microscopic pot. IMO you'll often pick the pot up when he checks the river with a bet, since he won't have odds to call with A-hi.

Surf

[ISF]

I actually think a call is allright here. If he rally has nothing often you can pick it up with a river bet if you dont hit. I actually think as your raise looks really fish after the turn check through that a good percentage of that hands that would fold to a turn raise will check fold this river. So between the double gutshot, possible pair outs, + chance for a river check fold + meta game I think a call is fine here.

[wheelz]

yeah yeah i called. i was hoping the semibluff option would get more support though.

i agree that the flop check/turn raise doesn't look too believable, which is a major detriment to the line. the pot is still so small though that i think he might find a fold anyway. to the same extent though: doesn't the flop check, turn call, then river bet if checked to look a lot like a missed draw so that he calls the river with ace high? if i am against an ace-highish hand, putting in the turn raise is probably better than calling the turn and betting the river if checked to. of course, i don't know that he really doesn't have qq or something. really though, of all the times (i know there aren't many) that you've seen someone raise preflop then check the flop out of position heads up (in a blind war no less) how often have they actually had a big hand? i've seen more missed hands than big ones, maybe it's just me.

[ISF]

I agree that if you know he has specifically an a high a turn raise is better, but this betting pattern is more likely to be either complete crap that decided to mix it up by checking or a monster. Against either of these two hands I would rather call. If it is a monster you have the implied odds to call, and will be really punished if you raise, and the complete garbage will often check fold the river.

[Surfbullet]

I like your analysis Wheelz, and I've seen lots of legitimate giving up in this situation. People raise so light in a blind war that i've seen more checks indicating weakness than indicating monsters lately.

You can usually peg the guy who is going to check a monster. He raises weak hands or draws, and slowplays big hands habitually. When it seems uncharacteristic, it probably is.

Surf

[wheelz]

but what if he'd play monster, garbage, or ace high this way? doesn't that make the turn a raise? there's certainly more combos of garbage/ace high than there is monsters as well.

it's not like i'm losing a ton if he does have a hand he calls down with either. i'm done if i don't improve, and i've at least got nice implied odds going for me.

[Alobar]

reading the posts, I like the call turn,bet river if checked to line.

Also like you said, your turn raise looks kind of fishy, so I think its more apt to make him call down with ace high, where if you call the turn ina small pot and then bet the river, I think since the pot is so small hes more inclined to believe its a weak made hand (vs. busted draw) and just fold his ace.

[B Dids]

This is like the least visable double gutter ever.

I call the turn.

[wheelz]

i called the turn. river was a total blank, he checked, i bet, he instacalled with ace high. [censored].

raising the turn i guess is the second best line, but i don't think it's that far behind.