Pot odds/ draw odds TD reassurance.

[dibbs]

Reading over Mark's recent post about discounting outs when villan stands pat after the first draw, and I've been starting to think about the 2nd and third draw lately.

I kind of go by gut/situation on the second draw, calling with good 1 card draws and only 2 if the pot is huge and I don't expect it to be 2 bets. I usually call with any good one card draw on the last draw if I'm getting 4 to 1, but I have a feeling this is a leak, as I should be working out my presumed dead outs into the equation, but it's not a science I'm good with.

Any thoughts of what odds you need to be getting in regards to the pot size with certain hands on the second and final draw? This isn't ultra specific and I apologize, just can't think of a better way to word it at the moment.

[timprov]

In a HU situation, your implied odds should more than make up for discounting outs. It's more of an issue multiway when you can figure more of them are dead, and in that case the pot's going to be bigger. I wouldn't worry about it too much.

I actually called and drew two on the last draw twice today, because I had discarded so many pairing cards.

[timprov]

Also, you more or less always have odds to draw to 2x7 on the second round. Worse draws are mostly a matter of experience and handreading, but you won't go too far wrong always calling with 2ww.

[fnord_too]

On the last draw I count how many outs I think I have and go by that. I usually discout sketchy outs, and modify my decision based on the chances of getting paid off and the chances of stealing if I miss. I will not call with a good one card draw getting 4:1 if I think villain has an 8. I will also ditch an 87 draw usually. Incorrect calling on with one draw to go is a big leak and one thing I look for in the opposition since it is so easy to spot.

Just sit down with a calculator and paper (or excel) and work out some of the probabilities. TD is very much a numbers game, and getting the math of common situations will help you immensely. After that it is all learning your opponents basic strategy and a little game theory with bluffing and trying to bluff catch percentages. (The latter (game theory) I do entirely by intuition, but it is not as important as the former by a lot. You do have to mix things up against good opponents though, since if you are predictable they never have a hard decision and will make fewer FTOP errors).

[dibbs]

[ QUOTE ]
I will not call with a good one card draw getting 4:1 if I think villain has an 8.

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On the last draw you wont call with a wheel draw for 1 bet? I think a difficult spot for me is figuring out when to call with hands like 2348 or much rougher hands like 2468 when they rap pat. 87's I ditch as well.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I will not call with a good one card draw getting 4:1 if I think villain has an 8.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the last draw you wont call with a wheel draw for 1 bet? I think a difficult spot for me is figuring out when to call with hands like 2348 or much rougher hands like 2468 when they rap pat. 87's I ditch as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have 2347, and I am confident villain has an 8 or better, then I need a 5 or 6 to feel good about the river, and an 8 to have a shot. Out of the 12 5's, 6's, and 8's there are probably 10 left. Discounting the 8's, lets say 9 (and I think that is being generous). There are 38ish unknowns in the stub, so you are getting just under the right price not figuring implied odds. There are a few ways the river can go, but I think they pretty much cancel out (between you losing an extra bet and winning an extra bet). Now, if I know villain can have a 9 or a T here (or be snowing), then calling is easy. If I know I can get in a raising war if he has an 86 and I hit my 7, I think calling is marginally good.

Quick exercize: you have 2347 (rainbow for simplicity), villain has an 8 or better, what are the hands he can have?
23457 - 324 combinations
23467 - 324 combinations
23567 - 432 combinations
24567 - 432 combinations
23458 - 432 combinations
23468 - 576 combinations
23568 - 576 combinations
34568 - 576 combinations
23478 - 324 combinations
875xx (at least one 2 or 3) - don't feel like counting these right now

The point is, if you know he has an 8 or better, there are a lot of ways you can make a hand and still lose which is why I really use the heuristic of not counting implied odds in these spots. (I kind of double not counted them by discounting the 8's, but I am cautious on the turn).

I thought about making a post a few days ago to discuss what street the most money was lost on, pre flop or the turn. I think that depends on the game, but in the games I play, mainly it is the turn (though when some people from the higher levels drop by and lag it up it is definitely pre flop for them).

[dibbs]

Good point, perhaps part of the underlying feeling why I think I leak bets on the turn, but pot size always screws with me.

[ QUOTE ]
I thought about making a post a few days ago to discuss what street the most money was lost on, pre flop or the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would be very interested in reading it and I'm sure others would too, as well as any other random thoughts you may have.

[dibbs]

Sounds good, Thanks Tim.