Value bet river fold to raise

[veganmav]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $15.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (2 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, SB folds, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

River: (4 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>,


I didn't bet the flop because I didn't wanna get raised on this scary board, and have my remaining opponents fold, but I knew if someone after me bet I could then raise trapping the field for 2 If I had the opportunity. Unfortunately it got checkked through. On the turn I had the same problem, I didn't want to bet, get raised and have it be HU to the river. so I checked, and called hoping to get MP1 to call along. That failed. I hit my straight on the river, and my thinking is, if I check, he will check through with a lot of hands that I'm beating. If I bet, he'll call most of his legitimate hands, and raise if he has the A. So I'm betting this river, and hoping for a call, and folding to a raise. What do you think?

[GoodOL]

Checking the flop is fine...you don't want to run the risk of letting someone thin the field with your draw (one could argue betting it). However, once it got checked around....I think you either bet (if you get raised, oh well...you took a stab and now you call), check and fold (certainly an option with such a small pot), or check raise (risky, but it might look like you were slowplaying a monster and you win right there). The pot is just too small for a check and call...you don't have the odds (I don't think all your outs are live).

[veganmav]

but what about the river bet? and fold to a river raise decision?

[GoodOL]

Check and call on the river in an effort to induce a bluff from a weaker hand and to avoid a possible river bluff raise. What hands does he have that he would check the flop but call river with second best hand...33 is the only hand I can think of (if he had two pair on the flop, he likely would have bet; if he rivered two pair, that means he had KT, QT, JT...all hands that he probably would have bet on the flop). I don't like that spot for value betting river.