Presenting EV neutrality with my EP raises

[Malachii]

I've been doing some work with my NL game... I want to set up my preflop strategy such that my an opposing player cannot call with small pocket pairs versus my EP raises and show a long term profit. The best way to do this is to throw in some suited connectors with the range of legitimate hands that I'm raising from EP (AK, AA-QQ, I'm a very tight EP raiser). According to Pokerstove, AA-QQ+AK has roughly 65% equity versus JJ-22, and the range of suited connectors that I'd be raising has about 35% equity against this same range of hands. Also, assume that anytime someone flops a set against me, they'll pick off a 2/3rds the pot continuation bet irrespective of my holding.

Does this mean that a 1:1 raising ratio with these hands is appropriate?

I reckon this is a good topic, and hope it generates some good discusion. Shania has been talked about before, but I've never seen it quantified.


[ QUOTE ]
Also, assume that anytime someone flops a set against me, they'll pick off a 2/3rds the pot continuation bet irrespective of my holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are saying you always shut down with AA after just one 2/3 pot flop bet?

I'll think about this a bit and may post later, but just so you know, this kind of strategy is only needed for high limits. I play 200NL and exactly like you, only raise from UTG to MP2 with AA/KK/QQ/AK, and I'm doing fine so far. My pfr is only about 3.5, so in case you are paranoid about being readable (I once was, and started rasing specifically 76s in EP to balance) don't be, because 90% of players are not paying attention to your style of play in the slightest, if you are not playing high limits

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]
Are saying you always shut down with AA after just one 2/3 pot flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I would estimate that on average I will lose between 1/2 and 2/3rds of my stack everytime somebody flops a set against my aces or kings. So let's say that they check/fold 7/8ths of the time to my flop bet when they miss their set (net loss 2$), win 6$ everytime I have raised a suited conenctor and they hit, and win about 25$ everytime I have an overpair or AK and hit (assuming my AK also hits). How frequently should I be raising SCs, given these assumptions?

[NMcNasty]

What you are saying is that you want to raise with hands that are easy to get away and feed off the pots won from your continuation bets to make up for all the money lost with hands like AA and KK which can lose you a lot of chips against sets.

The real problem is that you are going too far with your big hands. Learn to get away from KK and AA. If your opponent is crazy enough that you cant fold AA and KK postflop, then who cares, you lose money to small pairs but you're winning money against everything else. Play to beat your opponents entire range of hands not specific ones.

That said, I still raise with suited connectors fairly frequently. Although I'm not doing so to perform better against small pairs, I'm just trying to maintain an unpredictable aggressive image. If I'm playing against good players they are even more correct in calling me with small pairs if I'm raising with connectors.

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]
The real problem is that you are going too far with your big hands. Learn to get away from KK and AA.

[/ QUOTE ]
This of course is the other part of the equation. I'm fairly good at getting away from AA and KK, but not so good that opponents can't call with small pocket pairs and have it be a +EV situation. Frankly, I doubt anyone is, as strictly speaking they would have to lose less than 16BBs everytime someone flops a set against their aces, and, well, nobody's that good (and if they are, they're likely folding far too frequently.)

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm playing against good players they are even more correct in calling me with small pairs if I'm raising with connectors.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is just false. Given that small pairs are generally thrown away after the flop, your opponents will either be folding the best hand frequently in response to your raises or giving your legitimate hands too much action.

[NMcNasty]

[/ QUOTE ]
This is just false. Given that small pairs are generally thrown away after the flop, your opponents will either be folding the best hand frequently in response to your raises or giving your legitimate hands too much action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree that anyone who just plays simple ABC poker and calls raises with small pairs and folds if they don't get a set will lose money to someone raising with suited connectors, but they would also be losing money to just about any other hand. A *good* player won't play small pairs so simply. He would bluff with them occasionally, and play flops with straight draws, flush draws, and ragged boards more often. When a superior hand is in superior position among equally skilled players it will show a long term profit.

There are two ways that your opponents small pairs are +EV for him:
1. He's paying off your aces and kings with top pair hands generated from garbage like KQ, AQ, and AJ to an extent that every time he does get lucky and flop a set with 22 or something you have to play your aces or kings to showdown. In this situation you shouldn't adjust your starting hands because your already making a healthy profit against him and by mixing in suited connectors you're just making his awful reliance on top pair even more correct.
2. Your opponent is actually very tight and you are paying off his sets with top pair or overpairs too often. If this is the case, just fold post flop more. You might make a little more money against a poor predictable player by mixing in suited connectors to your starting hands here, but a good player will adjust his postflop play to account for this and will show an even greater profit.

Mixing in connectors to beat small pairs will only work against a small number of players who are good enough that they aren't paying off your top pair like hands very often, but who aren't good enough that they know how to play postflop with small pairs without sets.

That said, again, I still like raising with suited connectors, but I'm not trying to beat small pairs with them. I'm trying to establish an aggressive image when its cheap, so on later more expensive streets with big hands I get paid off.

Raising w/ suited connectors should be done on their own merits. When you play well post-flop, and can play your big draws aggressively, these lil sneaky bastards become way more profitable for me then two big broadway cards... Besides, the great thing about this game is its one of incomplete information, callers have no idea what I'm raising with, I can use my imagination /images/graemlins/cool.gif