Non-random raffle on Empire

[MicroBob]

I was just surfing around on the empire monthly promotions site and stumbled on the results for some raffle they had for a magazine survey at some point.

I don't remember this survey at all so don't know if it was last month or 3 years ago.

Anyway, the winners appeared to be chosed in a non-random fashion if you ask me:




[ QUOTE ]
GRAND PRIZE - AceBarber

AceBarber won an all expenses paid luxury vacation for two in Las Vegas

SECOND - 10TH PLACE

The following players won a Special Personal Empirepoker.com Poker Pack that includes:
Poker tabletop and Carry bag.
Set of poker chips.
2 decks of plastic cards.
1 chip rack.
Empirepoker T-shirt and a hat.
No limit Texas Hold'em book signed by Brad Daugherty.

And the winners are:
Armaldo
atc1961
Bainley
balexiou
BigHectik
BigSlick1750
Butch0598
c25thome
CaesarDoggy


[/ QUOTE ]

link (http://www.empirepoker.net/news/raffle_winners.html?PHPSESSID=73e4bb2b750b62b5fc85 6e112825043c)

[cokehead]

lol. that's pretty ridiculous.

[Uglyowl]

I didn't stand a chance considering I start with a "U". That is some funny stuff.

Cokehead, you just missed being picked it looks like.

[MicroBob]

Well...my empire handle starts with a Z!!


2 other aspects about this:


1. This type of idiocy almost lends credibility to the argument that the morons that run these sites really COULD have troubles randomizing the cards.
I mean...if they can't get something like a simple-raffle to be randomized how do we REALLY know they are actually doing it with the cards (you get the idea).



2. Empire is also holding another raffle ($6k) for those who play in the Sunday $200k guaranteed who also did the PLAYSEP bonus.
Since I have a leftover freeroll for this tourney I figued now is a good time to spend it because of the extra EV from the raffle.
I would actually like to know that I have at least a CHANCE of winning the raffle...because if it's done like that one was then I obviously don't.
However...if they choose to reverse the process and award the prizes to all those at the bottom of the alphabetical list then I completely approve!!

[mmmmmbrother]

make a new account 'aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamicrobob'

[MicroBob]

Wow! I'd be rich from all their "random" raffles!!!

the second places appear to be random....
but still f'ed up

[AAmaz0n]

OH man! I would have been in great shape on this thing. too bad I didn't do the survey.

Shauna

[krazyace5]

[ QUOTE ]
the second places appear to be random....
but still f'ed up

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you say that?

[MicroBob]

he meant the NEXT set of 2nd places...

if you go to the link you will see a list of another 100 or so names who got some other kind of consolation prize that aren't alphabetical (and even include a handful of A's and B's)

The winner is also a runner-up...

[PrayingMantis]

I know this isn't the probability forum, so it's not really the place to get into it, but technically you'll have a very difficult time showing why this list isn't random. Of course it looks stupid and non-random, but as a matter of fact it's not "less random" than any other list that would not look random to you, and that you won't post about.

In other word: suppose they make a very big number of random raffles like that. eventually there will be a raffle that will look like the one posted, and someone will post about a "non-random raffle on Empire".

I'm not trying to defend them or anything, of course, just pointing this out. It will be interesting though to discuss it on the probability forum.

[AcmeSalesRep]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Empire is also holding another raffle ($6k) for those who play in the Sunday $200k guaranteed who also did the PLAYSEP bonus.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had done that bonus, I would love my chances on that raffle!

Acme

[AcmeSalesRep]

[ QUOTE ]
I know this isn't the probability forum, so it's not really the place to get into it, but technically you'll have a very difficult time showing why this list isn't random. Of course it looks stupid and non-random, but as a matter of fact it's not "less random" than any other list that would not look random to you, and that you won't post about.

[/ QUOTE ]


Let's imagine 1000 people are eligible for this raffle. And let's assume the names are distributed evenly through the entire akphabet. What are the odds of nobody after "C" winning?

I have no idea how to perform this calculation, so I will leave it to the experts. But I suspect the odds are pretty damned small...

Acme

[Uglyowl]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know this isn't the probability forum, so it's not really the place to get into it, but technically you'll have a very difficult time showing why this list isn't random. Of course it looks stupid and non-random, but as a matter of fact it's not "less random" than any other list that would not look random to you, and that you won't post about.

[/ QUOTE ]


Let's imagine 1000 people are eligible for this raffle. And let's assume the names are distributed evenly through the entire akphabet. What are the odds of nobody after "C" winning?

I have no idea how to perform this calculation, so I will leave it to the experts. But I suspect the odds are pretty damned small...

Acme

[/ QUOTE ]

I took a sample of names from a tournament of 130 players that is registering now.

13.846% of the names fall in the alphabet range of the winners.

Their were 10 winners of either 1st or 2nd prize so I multiplied .13864 to the tenth power.

The odds of this happening I would believe would be:

1 in 386,150,612

[jman220]

[ QUOTE ]
1 in 386,150,612

[/ QUOTE ]

Now thats a bad beat.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know this isn't the probability forum, so it's not really the place to get into it, but technically you'll have a very difficult time showing why this list isn't random. Of course it looks stupid and non-random, but as a matter of fact it's not "less random" than any other list that would not look random to you, and that you won't post about.


[/ QUOTE ]Let's imagine 1000 people are eligible for this raffle. And let's assume the names are distributed evenly through the entire akphabet. What are the odds of nobody after "C" winning?

I have no idea how to perform this calculation, so I will leave it to the experts. But I suspect the odds are pretty damned small...

Acme

[/ QUOTE ] I took a sample of names from a tournament of 130 players that is registering now.

13.846% of the names fall in the alphabet range of the winners.

Their were 10 winners of either 1st or 2nd prize so I multiplied .13864 to the tenth power.

The odds of this happening I would believe would be:

1 in 386,150,612

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, this is not the best place to discuss it, but I'm sorry: you are both looking at it from the wrong perspective. The chance of any _particular_ group of people to be randomly chosen is equal to the chance of _any_ other particular group. Thinking about it in terms of "what is the chance that a certain group comes from a particular range" is not the correct perspective.

It's like being "surprised" from the fact that you were dealt X times the same hand in a row, or got 7 times "heads" while tossing a non-biased coin, and saying it isn't "random". The particular probability for this to happen isn't different from the probability of getting any other _particular_ sequence of heads.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
Dear Reef,

Thank you for contacting us.

We do understand your concern that the winners are in alphabetical order; however, please be assured that winners are selected randomly by the system.

Note: Please do not disclose your password to any individual/organization claiming to represent us. We will never ask you for the password to your account. If you receive any email or phone call from anyone requesting you to provide your password please report it to us immediately.

Our Customer Care Department is available 24/7 to assist you via email.

Thank you for choosing us as your online gaming site!

Madhumathi
Poker Customer Care

[/ QUOTE ]

[Uglyowl]

I asked the probability folks, hope they help..

LINK (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3492907&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

[PrayingMantis]

Nice. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[jman220]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dear Reef,

Thank you for contacting us.

We do understand your concern that the winners are in alphabetical order; however, please be assured that winners are selected randomly by the system.

Note: Please do not disclose your password to any individual/organization claiming to represent us. We will never ask you for the password to your account. If you receive any email or phone call from anyone requesting you to provide your password please report it to us immediately.

Our Customer Care Department is available 24/7 to assist you via email.

Thank you for choosing us as your online gaming site!

Madhumathi
Poker Customer Care

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, a customer service drone isn't going to be able to help us on this. It's too bad that Party doesn't have like a "Lee Jones." Is there anyone higher up we can send this to? I know that Mike Sexton is Party Poker's "Ambassador," is that a possibility?

[Synergistic Explosions]

[ QUOTE ]
I know that Mike Sexton is Party Poker's "Ambassador," is that a possibility?

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple years ago I saw Mike Sexton watching and chatting during one of Partys big tourneys. I had a chance to ask him why they had just raised the rake to .75 at 12.00 for low limit players. Considering it was already .50 at 5.00 which was high also.

He said it was to pay for new promotions in the future, and that all the money and more was going to players. I said I didn't think it was fair to make the low limit players pay for this.

After that, my chat was banned and I could no longer chat anywhere at any table.

So the lesson is, probably best not to chat with Mike Sexton unless you are going to kiss his ass.