OOPS!

[34TheTruth34]

3/6 game on the weekend, and believe it or not, the competition is actually pretty tough. No joke, that actually happens once in a while. 5 limpers I look down in the BB and see two red aces. I raise and they all call.

Flop 8-8-8. I am first to act and decide not to bet, so I check and see what will happen. After thinking about the hand, I don't know if I like this or not. What do you guys think? At the time, I was thinking that there weren't really many cards that could beat me if my hand was good. The only hands that could really benefit from a free card would be 99-KK, right? And those hands will call anyway. Everyone else is pretty much drawing to runner-runner and most likely will be drawing dead after the turn card. Also, I considered possibly check-raising if the bet came from late position to see if anyone would call two bets cold. I figured that would also help me narrow down whether the 8 was out there or not.

There are ten cards out in other players hands out of 47 unseen. Using that good 'ole UConn math, I determine that means there is only about a 20% chance (10/47) that the case eight is out against me. Is this correct thinking?

Anyway, it gets checked around. Turn A. Not really the card I wanted to see, even though it does improve my hand and give me a one-outer in case I was behind. But now I don't figure to get any action unless the last ace is out there. I bet and everyone folds to the player on the button who calls. He is an above average player, easily one of the two or three best at the table. I can't get any kind of read off of him.

River Q. I bet out again and he instantly raises. Without even thinking, I just as quickly reraise. I'd like to say that I hoped he had an ace or pocket queens or something, but I didn't even think about it, just auto-reraised. As I'm throwing my reraise out there, I accidentally say "OOPS!" out loud, realizing that I may have just made a bad play (and if not a bad play, then at least a thoughtless play). He instantly re-raises.

Do you call, reraise, or fold and how close is it?

[JimmyV]

Call. It's not even a little bit close.

Your initial re-raise on the river is probably wrong too, as you know. I think with overcards (i.e., an ace) a "good" player would have raised the flop for better information and more control. Moreover, as a 'good' player he should be at least a little concerned that YOU have the 8, and as you say he doesn't seem concerned.

I imagine you did the right thing, and called with the intention of mucking. The chance that he has A3s (which would explain the failure to bet the flop or turn) or some such is just too great to fold the second nuts.

I wonder how saying "oops!" didn't get into Caro's Book of Tells?

[Homer]

What do you guys think?

I would bet the flop. All kinds of overcards will call on the flop, but not on the turn. Bigger pairs will raise. By betting the flop you get a better feel for who has what, and how to play on the turn to make the most money. In other words, if you bet the flop and the player to your immediate left raises, you should consider check-raising the turn to trap the remaining players in the middle for multiple bets. If it is called/folded around to the player to your right, who raises, you should bet out on the turn.

Your best chance to make any money with this hand is on the flop. Give overcards a chance to take one off.

Is this correct thinking?

If your opponents cards were random, then yes. If they are sane, which they seem to be in this instance, the chances are much less. This is because there are much less limping hands that contain an 8 than contain big cards. So the probability of one of them having an 8 is not really random. It's probably 1/2 to 1/4 as likely as you calculated (5-10% chance).

Do you call, reraise, or fold and how close is it?

Provided that the button is a thinking opponent, your raise on the river is pretty bad. Against a horrible opponent, who would raise the river with a bare A, your raise could be solid. The button knows that you raised preflop from the BB, which pretty much guarantees that you have AA/KK/QQ/AKs. So his river raise has no value at all if he has only an A, since all he can beat is KK, which you will fold to his raise. He can only lose more money by being reraised by AA and QQ. To me this indicates that he must have an 8. I would just call. After being four-bet on the river, I would call even if I knew in my heart that it was wrong. The pot is huge and maybe, just maybe, I was wrong about the button being a sane player and he only has a bare A.

-- Homer

[Louie Landale]

10/47 is a reasonable start for the calculations. You need to weight that with the whether they are MORE or LESS likely to play a hand featuring an 8. Surely there is a HUGE difference between someone having the case A when it flops AAA and someone having the case 2 when it flops 222.

The problem with checking the flop after raising in the BB is that your hand is pretty obvious. You would surely bet QQ to prevent a stiff A or K from getting a free card, and would bet AK also. Anway, checking and hoping a face card comes is no disaster, they'll call you down anyway.

Once you turn an Ace I'm pretty sure you make more money when someone tries ton steal it than when someone has the case A.

On the river: the good player SURELY has either the case A or the case 8 (he's not going to call). The fact that he did NOT raise pre-flop adds weight to the 8. Once he raises, not only is it pretty obvious, you are also giving up 2:1 when you are wrong. It does NOT matter that you have "Aces Full"; NEVER 3-bet. Since he is almost SURE to bet the river, I'd have checked and called, hoping to snag a bluff.

- Louie

[34TheTruth34]

I find it interesting that nobody liked checking the flop. I agree that the first thought seems to be to bet the flop and if it were the normal 3/6 crowd, I would have. But this wasn't the normal collection of donators and calling stations. Some of the reasons that I didn't were:

1. This wasn't the type of field to call a flop bet with a hand like JTs or 67s, but if they got a free card and one came on the turn, they might be forced to put a few bets into the pot with almost zero outs.

2. The only hands that can pass me with a free card would be KK,QQ,JJ,TT,99 and because there was no preflop raise, I can assume that most of these hands aren't out there.

3. If the case 8 is out there, then I save money if the flop gets checked around.

4. A hand like 77 or 99 will not want to give a free card and may bet the flop (probably assuming I have a AK or AQ).

5. If the bet comes from my left, I can check-raise the whole table and trap them for extra bets. If it comes from my right, I may check-raise and try to determine who may have the eight or I can just smooth-call to make it look like I am trying to hit an ace or king.

All in all, I think this is a reasonable time to consider slowplaying.

Anyway, for the results, he won with J8s /forums/images/icons/frown.gif

Thanks for responding

[bernie]

i think your worried too early about quads.

on the river, id just call. unless this player would bet like this with much less

b

[34TheTruth34]

If your opponents cards were random, then yes. If they are sane, which they seem to be in this instance, the chances are much less. This is because there are much less limping hands that contain an 8 than contain big cards. So the probability of one of them having an 8 is not really random

Good point, I hadn't thought of that. I guess I should have been less concerned about the quads then I was.