Got myself in trouble OOP w/JJTTss

[twolf]

Stats on villian are 74/2/1.35 after 60 hands. All comments appreciated.

Party Poker Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 ($97.50)
MP3 ($50.50)
CO ($137.20)
Button ($97.60)
SB ($146.50)
BB ($62.50)
UTG ($124.55)
Hero ($214.59)
UTG+2 ($89.10)
MP1 ($94)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls $3.50, Button calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($14.50) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, CO calls $10, Button folds, BB calls $10.

Turn: ($44.50) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $75</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $50.

River: ($194.50) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $48.7 (All-In)</font>, Hero...

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]

Hero checks, CO bets $48.7 (All-In), Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

pushes on the turn if he's going to call.

[joewatch]

One of the flopper callers must have a str8 draw, no? I mean, there is no 2-flush, so what else could they have???

[adanthar]

I don't think he can fold the turn, since he has at least 17 nut outs vs. the straight. But pushing there seems like a waste of perfectly good chips.

Sorry for my (genuine) ignorance, how does he have 17 outs? Against a made hand the set is usually a 3:1 dog, and it's even worse with 2pairs in hand.

FRC

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry for my (genuine) ignorance, how does he have 17 outs? Against a made hand the set is usually a 3:1 dog, and it's even worse with 2pairs in hand.

FRC

[/ QUOTE ]

He has an open-ended straight draw to go with his top set.

[twolf]

[ QUOTE ]
how does he have 17 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have 17 outs...

3 8's, 3 9's, 3 4's, 2 jacks, 4 7s, 4 queens equals...19 outs, but adanthar said nut outs, the 4 7s are not nut outs, so 15 nut outs.

[ QUOTE ]
Against a made hand the set is usually a 3:1 dog, and it's even worse with 2pairs in hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a straight draw as well.

But my whole problem with this hand(besides it being my first shot at the $100) is that I folded this hand on the river. The way the betting went it seemed like he could bet a set/two pair/bluff like this putting me on AAxx or KKxx or just four big cards with 2 spades. This seems true since 1)he left himself money to bet on the river that could be put in on the turn so that makes it seem like he's preparing to bluff the river and 2)he took forever to push on the river like he didn't want to because I could have KKxx. So folding getting ~5:1 on my river call made me sick but 7Txx did make sense esp. if he had 7TQx. I think the turn play sucked to, I should have check/called but then I don't know what to do on the river, which mattered very little anyways since I still didn't know what to do. I'm never raising OOP again /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he can fold the turn, since he has at least 17 nut outs vs. the straight. But pushing there seems like a waste of perfectly good chips.


[/ QUOTE ]

All aces was saying is that if I'm calling the river push UI then I should push the turn to save time. At least that's what I took from it.

If the villian put him on A-A-x-x, due to his PF raise, he could be making this play with as little as two pair.

[illegit]

Does the fact that we hold 2 of the tens affect anyone's thought about the hand at all? It certainly appears as if QT is very likely given the way the hand has played out... but there ARE only 2 tens unaccounted for, making the holidng more rare than usual. Unfortunately I don't see him playing anything else this way, unless I had a specific reason to believe he was a big donk.

[twolf]

I thought about that but put it off saying "this is PLO weird things happen and this wouldn't be that unusual". If it was NLHE I would think this though.

[liquid]

[ QUOTE ]
3 8's, 3 9's, 3 4's, 2 jacks, 4 7s, 4 queens equals...19 outs, but adanthar said nut outs, the 4 7s are not nut outs, so 15 nut outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 10 outs to scoop vs. a Q-high straight. You have 3 additional outs to tie (the remaining Qs), but only if foe does not have a K.

[twolf]

I was being vague as technically the only nut out I have is the only other Jack left.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 8's, 3 9's, 3 4's, 2 jacks, 4 7s, 4 queens equals...19 outs, but adanthar said nut outs, the 4 7s are not nut outs, so 15 nut outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 10 outs to scoop vs. a Q-high straight. You have 3 additional outs to tie (the remaining Qs), but only if foe does not have a K.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that was my counting too. On a 89Jx board, the 8way straight draw prospect looks rather bleak to me.

FRC